Hundred Quote by Herman Kahn
“My guess is that nuclear weapons will be used sometime in the next hundred years, but that their use is much more likely to be small and limited than widespread and unconstrained.”
About This Quote
Source Book: On the Likelihood of Nuclear War, 1960
Future nuclear conflict will likely be limited and tactical, not massive and uncontrolled.
In simple terms: Small, limited nuclear use is more probable than large‑scale war.
Key Takeaway
Prepare for limited nuclear scenarios.
Themes
security
risk assessment
strategic planning
Mood
cautious
analytical
Type
policy
strategic
When to use this quote
- civil defense planning
- policy analysis
- emergency preparedness
- international diplomacy
Key Concepts
political science
military studies
probability theory
Questions to Reflect On
- What measures reduce limited nuclear risk?
- How should societies plan for low‑probability threats?
A Different Perspective
Assumptions may change with technology.
![“Nearly all the writing of our time is likely to disappear in a hundred years. Certainly most readers - and nearly all critics - feel that [Kurt] Vonnegut started to repeat himself, to grow increasingly self-indulgent and meandering, and to sometimes just blather in his later work. But his books up…” quote by Michael Dirda](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/img-quotes/ed7/michael-dirda-3414_1960s_nearly-all-the-writing-of-our-time-is-li_13506.jpg)
