Average Quote by Gary Shilling
“If you look back historically at the post-WWII period on average, if you get a 100-basis-point increase in Fed funds, the spillover to the ten-year is only 35 basis points, and 25 basis points into the 30-year - it's a fairly small spillover effect.”
About This Quote
A modest rise in short‑term rates has limited impact on long‑term Treasury yields, indicating muted transmission.
In simple terms: Fed rate hikes only slightly affect long‑term bonds.
Key Takeaway
Expect small spillover from policy changes.
Themes
economics
monetary policy
interest rates
Mood
analytical
cautious
Type
informational
technical
When to use this quote
- investment planning
- bond portfolio management
- risk assessment
Key Concepts
financial markets
policy transmission
Questions to Reflect On
- What factors could amplify rate spillover?
- How should investors adjust strategies?
A Different Perspective
Assumes stable market conditions; may differ in crises.
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