Confirmation-bias Quote by Francis Bacon
““It was a good answer that was made by one who when they showed him hanging in a temple a picture of those who had paid their vows as having escaped shipwreck, and would have him say whether he did not now acknowledge the power of the gods, — ‘Aye,’ asked he again, ‘but where are they painted that were drowned after their vows?’ And such is the way of all superstition, whether in astrology, dreams, omens, divine judgments, or the like; wherein men, having a delight in such vanities, mark the events where they are fulfilled, but where they fail, though this happens much oftener, neglect and pass them by.””
About This Quote
Source Essay: Of Superstitions, 1625
Superstition selectively notices fulfilled predictions while ignoring failures, revealing a bias that validates false beliefs in astrology, dreams, and omens.
In simple terms: People ignore failed prophecies, reinforcing false beliefs.
Key Takeaway
Question and verify predictions.
Themes
critical thinking
skepticism
belief
bias
Mood
analytical
skeptical
Type
philosophical
educational
When to use this quote
- scientific inquiry
- education reform
- media literacy
- personal decision making
Key Concepts
cognitive bias
confirmation bias
epistemology
Questions to Reflect On
- Why do we favor stories that confirm expectations?
- How can we train to recognize selective evidence?
A Different Perspective
People may cling to comforting superstitions despite evidence.
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