Evidence Quote by Eliezer Yudkowsky
““The point being that when there are lots of possible answers, most of the evidence you need goes into just locating the true hypothesis out of millions of possibilities - bringing it to your attention in the first place. The amount of evidence you need to judge between two or three plausible candidates is much smaller by comparison. So if you just jump ahead without evidence and promote one particular possibility to the focus of your attention, you're skipping over most of the work.””
About This Quote
Source Essay: “The AI Alignment Problem” by Eliezer Yudkowsky, 2009
When many hypotheses exist, most evidence is spent finding the correct one; comparing a few candidates needs far less evidence, so jumping to conclusions skips essential work.
In simple terms: Finding the right hypothesis takes most evidence; comparing few needs less.
Key Takeaway
Gather evidence before focusing on a single hypothesis.
Themes
critical thinking
decision making
scientific method
Mood
analytical
cautious
Type
instructional
philosophical
When to use this quote
- research planning
- medical diagnosis
- technical troubleshooting
- policy analysis
Key Concepts
hypothesis testing
evidence gathering
cognitive bias
Questions to Reflect On
- What evidence would you need to identify the best hypothesis?
- How can you avoid premature focus on one option?
A Different Perspective
If you ignore the search phase, you may miss better alternatives.
