Agree Quote by Dennis Lindley
“Almost all thinking people agree that you should not have probability 1 (or 0) for any event, other than one demonstrable by logic, like 2 x 2 = 4.”
About This Quote
Source Book: Statistical Methods, Dennis Lindley, 1970
Assigning certainty of 0 or 1 to events without logical proof is overconfident and limits learning.
In simple terms: Avoid absolute certainty without proof.
Key Takeaway
Embrace uncertainty and update beliefs.
Themes
probability
logic
uncertainty
decision making
Mood
thoughtful
analytical
Type
philosophical
educational
When to use this quote
- scientific research
- risk assessment
- personal decisions
- forecasting
Key Concepts
Bayesian reasoning
epistemic humility
Questions to Reflect On
- How do you handle evidence that contradicts your beliefs?
- When is it appropriate to assign probability 0 or 1?
A Different Perspective
Absolute certainty can ignore new evidence and cause errors.
![“I will not agree to have this bill [to repeal DADT ] go forward, because our economy is in the tank.” quote by John McCain](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/img-quotes/c2c/john-mccain-465_agree_i-will-not-agree-to-have-this-bill-to-re_7321.jpg)
