“The scientific method asserts that one cannot prove a hypothesis, only disprove it. Seeing more white swans may strengthen the hypothesis, but seeing a black swan can disprove it. The confirmation bias, the search for data that confirms existing beliefs… — Rich Jolly Copy Share Image
“The idea of antifragility, for which evolution is the most important example, gives us tremendous guidance: o Seek out low-cost options in your business and look for convex payouts. o Embrace trial and error processes, and foster entrepreneurship. o Embrace randomness, and be aware that attempts to mask or limit its effects may seem to work in the short run… — Rich Jolly Copy Share
“In the early phases, the structure exhibits exponential growth. This identifies the reinforcing loop. However, the balancing loop is effectively dormant. It's only later… — Rich Jolly Copy Share Image
“In real life situations, there are often many feedback loops present, with perhaps several dormant feedback loops lying in wait.” — Rich Jolly Copy Share Image
“In system dynamic simulation, this data set is referred to as the reference behavior pattern (RBP).” — Rich Jolly Copy Share Image
“The negative effects of virtuous turned vicious loops is an extremely important lesson to keep in mind.” — Rich Jolly Copy Share Image
“7. Remember It’s Only a Model—Always remember George Box's excellent advice, “All models are wrong, but some are useful.” The feedback and delays you… — Rich Jolly Copy Share Image
“The scientific method asserts that one cannot prove a hypothesis, only disprove it. Seeing more white swans may strengthen the hypothesis, but seeing a… — Rich Jolly Copy Share Image
“Surowiecki outlined four conditions that characterized wise crowds: 1. Diversity of opinion 2. Independence 3. Decentralization 4. An aggregation mechanism” — Rich Jolly Copy Share Image
“Generally, the modeler should look for natural boundaries of the system to capture the most important and impactful structure.” — Rich Jolly Copy Share Image
“Complexity can be categorized into two types: combinatorial and dynamic.” — Rich Jolly Copy Share Image
“if your business ecosystem seems stable, don't be lulled into a potentially false sense of security. Big changes can happen very quickly. Don't confuse low volatility with low risk. Andy Grove, former Intel CEO, was fond of saying "Only the paranoid survive." These are wise words. Models used in business often do very well in periods of stability, but fail… — Rich Jolly Copy Share
“Google has studied this with their prediction markets and found evidence for better information flow for employees who were physically closer together (Cowgill et… — Rich Jolly Copy Share Image
