The central idea in The Black Swan is that: rare events cannot be estimated from empirical observation since they are rare. — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Copy Share Image
The track record of economists in predicting events is monstrously bad. It is beyond simplification; it is like medieval medicine. — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Copy Share Image
But they never notice the following inconsistency: this so-called worst-case event, when it happened, exceeded the worst case at the time. — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Copy Share Image
I'd rather have the market tell us what - I'd rather have events precipitate events, rather than just sit there like passive… — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Copy Share Image
In economic life and history more generally, just about everything of consequence comes from black swans; ordinary events have paltry effects in… — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Copy Share Image
We know from chaos theory that even if you had a perfect model of the world, you'd need infinite precision in order… — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Copy Share Image
The government-sponsored institution Fannie Mae, when I look at its risks, seems to be sitting on a barrel of dynamite, vulnerable to… — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Copy Share Image
History is opaque. You see what comes out, not the script that produces events, [...] The generator of historical events is different… — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Copy Share Image
Cumulative errors depend largely on the big surprises, the big opportunities. Not only do economic, financial, and political predictors miss them, but… — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Copy Share Image
Wittgenstein's ruler: Unless you have confidence in the ruler's reliability, if you use a ruler to measure a table you may also be using… — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Copy Share Image
In politics we face the choice between warmongering, nation-state loving, big-business agents on one hand; and risk-blind, top-down, epistemic arrogant big servants of large… — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Copy Share Image
My nightmare scenario is that the government saves Citibank once again, as well as the other banks, and business resumes as usual. Then, the… — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Copy Share Image
Using, as an excuse, others' failure of common sense is in itself a failure of common sense. — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Copy Share Image
You know, children philosophize more than adults - and they are critical of adults. — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Copy Share Image
“Suckers think that you cure greed with money, addiction with substances, expert problems with experts, banking with bankers, economics with economists, and debt crises… — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Copy Share Image
“One needs to go out and buy a lottery ticket in order to win. Does it mean that the work involved in the trip… — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Copy Share Image
Individuals should think about the worst-case scenarios and plan for them. The world will be crazier than you think it will be. Put money… — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Copy Share Image
“If you are looking for your misplaced wallet in your living room, in a trial and error mode, you exercise rationality by not looking… — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Copy Share Image
“Most humans manage to squander their free time, as free time makes them dysfunctional, lazy, and unmotivated—the busier they get, the more active they… — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Copy Share Image
We learn the most from fools ... yet we pay them back with the worst ingratitude. — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Copy Share Image
![“History is opaque. You see what comes out, not the script that produces events, [...] The generator of historical events is different from the events themselves, much as the minds of the gods cannot be read just by witnessing their deeds.” quote by Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/img-quotes/b20/nassim-nicholas-taleb-352_deeds_history-is-opaque-you-see-what-comes-out_237423.jpg)
