A plan is only a scenario, and almost by definition, it is…
“A plan is only a scenario, and almost by definition, it is optimistic... As a result, scenario planning can lead to a serious underestimate of the risk of failure.”
About This Quote
This interpretation was drafted with AI assistance. It is one reading of the quote, not the author's own explanation.
Scenario planning often assumes best‑case outcomes, causing people to overlook or downplay potential failures.
In simple terms: Optimism in planning can hide real risks.
Key Takeaway
Beware of over‑optimism in plans.
Themes
risk management
decision making
planning
optimism
uncertainty
Mood
cautious
analytical
Type
practical
strategic
When to use this quote
- business strategy
- investment decisions
- policy development
- project management
Key Concepts
cognitive bias
probability assessment
strategic foresight
Questions to Reflect On
- How do you test the robustness of your scenarios?
- What safeguards can counteract optimism bias?
A Different Perspective
Optimism may be useful for motivation but can blind analysts to downside risks.