We are often confident even when we are wrong, and an objective observer is more likely to detect our errors than we… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
An individual who expresses high confidence probably has a good story, which may or may not be true. — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
The confidence people have in their beliefs is not a measure of the quality of evidence but of the coherence of the… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
The confidence that individuals have in their beliefs depends mostly on the quality of the story they can tell about what they… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
People exaggerate their confidence in their plans - something we call the planning fallacy... The existence of the plan tends to induce… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
“The main obstacle is that subjective confidence is determined by the coherence of the story one has constructed, not by the quality… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
“When the handsome and confident speaker bounds onto the stage, for example, you can anticipate that the audience will judge his comments… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
“Confidence is a feeling, which reflects the coherence of the information and the cognitive ease of processing it. It is wise to… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
“We are confident when the story we tell ourselves comes easily to mind, with no contradiction and no competing scenario. But ease… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
“Social psychology comes into the picture here, because the answer that a truthful CFO would offer is plainly ridiculous. A CFO who… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
“System 1 is designed to jump to conclusions from little evidence—and it is not designed to know the size of its jumps.… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
“The difficulties of statistical thinking contribute to the main theme of Part 3, which describes a puzzling limitation of our mind: our… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
“If subjective confidence is not to be trusted, how can we evaluate the probable validity of an intuitive judgment? When do judgments… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
Economists think about what people ought to do. Psychologists watch what they actually do. — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share
“People who are poor think like traders, but the dynamics are quite different. Unlike traders, the poor are not indifferent to the differences between… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share
“Mood evidently affects the operation of System 1: when we are uncomfortable and unhappy, we lose touch with our intuition.” — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share
The confidence that individuals have in their beliefs depends mostly on the quality of the story they can tell about what they see, even… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share
“So this is my aim for watercooler conversations: improve the ability to identify and understand errors of judgment and choice, in others and eventually… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share
“For example, I recently came to doubt my long-held impression that adultery is more common among politicians than among physicians or lawyers.” — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share
Survival prospects are poor for an animal that is not suspicious of novelty. — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share
“the idea of money primes individualism: a reluctance to be involved with others, to depend on others, or to accept demands from others.” — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share
Most of the moments of our life - and I calculated, you know, the psychological present is said to be about three seconds long;… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share
“knowing little makes it easier to fit everything you know into a coherent pattern.” — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share
“The best we can do is a compromise: learn to recognize situations in which mistakes are likely and try harder to avoid significant mistakes… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share
“A happy mood loosens the control of System 2 over performance: when in a good mood, people become more intuitive and more creative but… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share
