Nate Silver

The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.

— Nate Silver

People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend…

— Nate Silver

“...the ratings agencies' problem was in being unable or uninterested in appreciating the distinction between risk and uncertainty.”

— Nate Silver

“Risk, as first articulated by the economist Frank H. Knight in 1921, is somethimg that you can put a price on…Uncertainty, on…

— Nate Silver

Walk rate is probably the area in which a pitcher has the most room to improve, but a rate that high is…

— Nate Silver

On average, people should be more skeptical when they see numbers. They should be more willing to play around with the data…

— Nate Silver

All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.

— Nate Silver

“What a well-designed forecasting system can do is sort out which statistics are relatively more susceptible to luck; batting average, for instance,…

— Nate Silver

Finding patterns is easy in any kind of data-rich environment; that's what mediocre gamblers do. The key is in determining whether the…

— Nate Silver

Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.

— Nate Silver

“The story the data tells us is often the one we’d like to hear, and we usually make sure that it has…

— Nate Silver

Well the way we perceive accuracy and what accuracy is statistically are really two different things.

— Nate Silver

“If political scientists couldn’t predict the downfall of the Soviet Union—perhaps the most important event in the latter half of the twentieth…

— Nate Silver

To be a very, very minor, eighth-tier celebrity, you realize, 'Hey, celebrities are just like us.'

— Nate Silver

“When the facts change, I change my mind,” the economist John Maynard Keynes famously said. “What do you do, sir?”

— Nate Silver

To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that…

— Nate Silver

I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll…

— Nate Silver

Racism is predictable. It's predicted by interaction or lack thereof with people unlike you, people of other races.

— Nate Silver