Data-driven predictions can succeed-and they can fail. It is when we deny our role in the process that the odds of failure… — Nate Silver Copy Share Image
We need to stop, and admit it: we have a prediction problem. We love to predict things—and we aren’t very good at… — Nate Silver Copy Share Image
The thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good… — Nate Silver Copy Share Image
“You will need to learn how to express-and quantify-the uncertainty in your predictions. You will need to update your forecast as facts… — Nate Silver Copy Share Image
We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way. — Nate Silver Copy Share Image
To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that… — Nate Silver Copy Share Image
“The more interviews that an expert had done with the press, Tetlock found, the worse his predictions tended to be.” — Nate Silver Copy Share Image
Finding patterns is easy in any kind of data-rich environment; that's what mediocre gamblers do. The key is in determining whether the patterns represent… — Nate Silver Copy Share
Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise. — Nate Silver Copy Share
“These partisan beliefs can upset the equation in which more information will bring us closer to the truth. A recent study in Nature found… — Nate Silver Copy Share
The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are. — Nate Silver Copy Share
“But forecasters often resist considering these out-of-sample problems. When we expand our sample to include events further apart from us in time and space,… — Nate Silver Copy Share
Well, you know, you're not going to have 86 percent of Congress voted out of office. — Nate Silver Copy Share
The quest for certainty in forecasting outcomes can be the enemy of progress. — Nate Silver Copy Share
To be a very, very minor, eighth-tier celebrity, you realize, 'Hey, celebrities are just like us.' — Nate Silver Copy Share
“Most of you will have heard the maxim "correlation does not imply causation." Just because two variables have a statistical relationship with each other… — Nate Silver Copy Share
Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans… — Nate Silver Copy Share
