The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future. — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
In strategic decisions, I'd be really concerned about overconfidence. — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
That's one of the real dangers of leader selection in many organizations: leaders are selected for overconfidence. — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
Except for some effects that I attribute mostly to age, my intuitive thinking is just as prone to overconfidence, extreme predictions, and… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
Courage is willingness to take the risk once you know the odds. Optimistic overconfidence means you are taking the risk because you… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
People exaggerate their confidence in their plans - something we call the planning fallacy... The existence of the plan tends to induce… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
Overconfidence is a powerful source of illusions, primarily determined by the quality and coherence of the story that you can construct, not… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share Image
Economists think about what people ought to do. Psychologists watch what they actually do. — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share
“People who are poor think like traders, but the dynamics are quite different. Unlike traders, the poor are not indifferent to the differences between… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share
“Mood evidently affects the operation of System 1: when we are uncomfortable and unhappy, we lose touch with our intuition.” — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share
The confidence that individuals have in their beliefs depends mostly on the quality of the story they can tell about what they see, even… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share
“So this is my aim for watercooler conversations: improve the ability to identify and understand errors of judgment and choice, in others and eventually… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share
“For example, I recently came to doubt my long-held impression that adultery is more common among politicians than among physicians or lawyers.” — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share
Survival prospects are poor for an animal that is not suspicious of novelty. — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share
“the idea of money primes individualism: a reluctance to be involved with others, to depend on others, or to accept demands from others.” — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share
Most of the moments of our life - and I calculated, you know, the psychological present is said to be about three seconds long;… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share
“knowing little makes it easier to fit everything you know into a coherent pattern.” — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share
“The best we can do is a compromise: learn to recognize situations in which mistakes are likely and try harder to avoid significant mistakes… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share
“A happy mood loosens the control of System 2 over performance: when in a good mood, people become more intuitive and more creative but… — Daniel Kahneman Copy Share
