Accepting Quote by Udny Yule
“The investigation of causal relations between economic phenomena presents many problems of peculiar difficulty, and offers many opportunities for fallacious conclusions. Since the statistician can seldom or never make experiments for himself, he has to accept the data of daily experience, and discuss as best he can the relations of a whole group of changes; he cannot, like the physicist, narrow down the issue to the effect of one variation at a time. The problems of statistics are in this sense far more complex than the problems of physics.”
About This Quote
Source Book: Statistical Methods and Their Applications, 1935
Statistical analysis of economic data is inherently messy, leading to easy misinterpretations because experiments are impossible.
In simple terms: Economics stats are complex and prone to error.
Key Takeaway
Treat data cautiously and test assumptions.
Themes
statistics
economics
methodology
Mood
analytical
critical
Type
academic
methodological
When to use this quote
- policy analysis
- academic research
- business forecasting
Key Concepts
causality
experimental limits
data reliability
Questions to Reflect On
- How can we validate causal claims without experiments?
- What safeguards reduce misinterpretation?
A Different Perspective
Statistical conclusions can be overconfident without experimental control.
