Bias Quote by Michael Lewis
““After seeing a movie that dramatizes nuclear war, they worried more about nuclear war; indeed, they felt that it was more likely to happen. The sheer volatility of people's judgement of the odds--their sense of the odds could be changed by two hours in a movie theater--told you something about the reliability of the mechanism that judged those odds.””
About This Quote
Source Book: The Big Short by Michael Lewis, 2010
Media can dramatically sway public perception of risk, making judgments volatile and unreliable.
In simple terms: Films can change how we view danger.
Key Takeaway
Critically evaluate information sources.
Themes
media
risk perception
judgment
Mood
analytical
cautious
Type
advice
philosophical
When to use this quote
- investment decisions
- policy making
- public health messaging
Key Concepts
behavioral economics
information theory
Questions to Reflect On
- How do you verify risk assessments?
- What safeguards can reduce emotional volatility?
A Different Perspective
May overstate media influence relative to other factors.
![“Stories people told themselves were biased by the availability of the material used to construct them...what people remember about the past, [Kahneman and Tversky] suggested, is likely to warp their judgement of the future. "We often decide that an outcome is extremely unlikely or impossible…” quote by Michael Lewis](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/img-quotes/fb5/michael-lewis-705_bias_stories-people-told-themselves-were-bias_2757027.jpg)
![“Crucial decisions are made, today as thousands of years ago, in terms of the intuitive guesses and preferences of a few men in positions of authority...[it is] quite likely that the fate of entire societies may be sealed by a series of avoidable mistakes committed by their leaders.” quote by Michael Lewis](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/img-quotes/a59/michael-lewis-705_decision-making_crucial-decisions-are-made-today-as-thou_16888.jpg)
