Advantage Quote by Marilyn vos Savant
“Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors. Behind one door is a car, the others, goats. You pick a door, say #1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say #3, which has a goat. He says to you: 'Do you want to pick door #2?' Is it to your advantage to switch your choice of doors?”
About This Quote
Source Problem: Monty Hall Problem, popularized in Parade Magazine, 1990
Switching doors doubles the probability of winning the car compared to staying with the initial choice.
In simple terms: Switch to improve odds.
Key Takeaway
Switch to increase winning chances.
Themes
probability
decision making
risk
logic
statistics
Mood
curious
analytical
inquisitive
Type
educational
explanatory
thought‑provoking
When to use this quote
- quiz shows
- decision under uncertainty
- teaching probability
- contest strategies
Key Concepts
Bayesian reasoning
conditional probability
game theory
Questions to Reflect On
- What assumptions are you making about the host’s actions?
- How does understanding probability change everyday choices?
A Different Perspective
If the host's behavior deviates from the standard rules, the advantage may disappear.
![“Next came the Patent laws. These began in England in 1624; and, in this country, with the adoption of our constitution. Before then [these?], any man might instantly use what another had invented; so that the inventor had no special advantage from his own invention. The patent system changed this…” quote by Abraham Lincoln](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/img-quotes/449/abraham-lincoln-88_adoption_next-came-the-patent-laws-these-began-in_1828.jpg)
