Contending Quote by Elliott Sober
“One influential philosophical position about the use of probability in science holds that probabilities are objective only if they are based on micro-physics; all other probabilities should be interpreted subjectively, as merely revealing our ignorance about physical details. I have argued against this position, contending that the objectivity of micro-physical probabilities entails the objectivity of macro-probabilities.”
About This Quote
Objective probabilities are tied to physical laws; other probabilities are subjective, reflecting our ignorance. The author argues that if micro‑physical probabilities are objective, then macro‑probabilities should also be objective.
In simple terms: Physical laws make some probabilities objective; others are subjective.
Key Takeaway
Question the objectivity of all probabilities.
Themes
science
philosophy
probability
Mood
critical
inquisitive
Type
philosophical
academic
When to use this quote
- research methodology
- risk assessment
- theoretical modeling
Key Concepts
objectivity
subjectivity
epistemology
Questions to Reflect On
- Can we ever fully know macro‑probabilities?
- What role does ignorance play in science?
A Different Perspective
Subjectivity may be unavoidable in complex systems.
![“A distinguished writer [Siméon Denis Poisson] has thus stated the fundamental definitions of the science: 'The probability of an event is the reason we have to believe that it has taken place, or that it will take place.' 'The measure of the probability of an event is the ratio of the number of…” quote by George Boole](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/img-quotes/ac8/george-boole-33776_knowledge_a-distinguished-writer-sim-on-denis-pois_3052857.jpg)
