Assuming Quote by Bill Buxton
“If history is any indication, we should assume that any technology that is going to have a significant impact over the next 10 years is already 10 years old!”
About This Quote
Source Speech: Talk on Technology Forecasting, 2015
Technological breakthroughs tend to be older than they appear; impactful tools are often a decade mature before widespread adoption.
In simple terms: Big tech is usually older than it seems.
Expect long development cycles before impact.
Themes
Mood
Type
When to use this quote
- product development
- investment decisions
- policy planning
- R&D strategy
Key Concepts
Questions to Reflect On
- How can we identify which old technologies will become dominant?
- What risks arise from assuming age predicts impact?
New tech may still be unproven despite age.