Skip to content

Assuming Quote by Bill Buxton

“If history is any indication, we should assume that any technology that is going to have a significant impact over the next 10 years is already 10 years old!” quote by Bill Buxton
Download Open image
“If history is any indication, we should assume that any technology that is going to have a significant impact over the next 10 years is already 10 years old!”

Bill Buxton

About This Quote

Source Speech: Talk on Technology Forecasting, 2015

Technological breakthroughs tend to be older than they appear; impactful tools are often a decade mature before widespread adoption.

In simple terms: Big tech is usually older than it seems.

Key Takeaway

Expect long development cycles before impact.

Themes

technology innovation forecasting

Mood

cautious analytical

Type

predictive strategic

When to use this quote

  • product development
  • investment decisions
  • policy planning
  • R&D strategy

Key Concepts

diffusion of innovations technology lifecycle

Questions to Reflect On

  • How can we identify which old technologies will become dominant?
  • What risks arise from assuming age predicts impact?
A Different Perspective

New tech may still be unproven despite age.

4.7 out of 5 (6 ratings)

More by Bill Buxton

Explore all 14 Bill Buxton quotes

More Assuming quotes

Browse all 2,452 Assuming quotes