Expansions do not die of old age. The probability of recession in the following year is the same for a three-year-old expansion as it is for a five- or six-year-old expansion. — Edgar Fiedler Copy Share Image
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers.. — Edgar Fiedler Copy Share Image
Forecasters tend to learn less and less about more and more, until in the end they know nothing about everything. — Edgar Fiedler Copy Share Image
When you know absolutely nothing about the topic, make your forecast by asking a carefully selected probability sample of 300 others who don't know… — Edgar Fiedler Copy Share Image
Ask five economists and you'll get five different answers - six if one went to Harvard.. — Edgar Fiedler Copy Share Image
There is no formula that will guarantee success in forecasting, no magic words that will part the clouds. The real problem, as the old… — Edgar Fiedler Copy Share Image
In a sense, there are as many forecasting methods as there are forecasters. But I would argue that most projections are derived from two… — Edgar Fiedler Copy Share Image
We're not very good at forecasting, and we don't know how to measure the impact of economic policy. — Edgar Fiedler Copy Share Image
Experience shows that a recession is never the result of just a few large industries dragging the economy down while the others continue to… — Edgar Fiedler Copy Share Image
No one can escape the iron rule that once you make a forecast, you know you're going to be wrong; you just don't know… — Edgar Fiedler Copy Share Image
