Assume that someone tells you that the probability of an…
““Assume that someone tells you that the probability of an event is exactly zero. You ask him where he got this from. “Baal told me” is the answer. In such case, the person is coherent, but would be deemed unrealistic by non-Baalists. But if on the other hand, the person tells you “I estimated it to be zero,” we have a problem. The person is both unrealistic and inconsistent. Something estimated needs to have an estimation error. So probability cannot be zero if it is estimated, its lower bound is linked to the estimation error; the higher the estimation error, the higher the probability, up to a point. As with Laplace’s argument of total ignorance, an infinite estimation error pushes the probability toward ½.””
About This Quote
This interpretation was drafted with AI assistance. It is one reading of the quote, not the author's own explanation.
Probability cannot be exactly zero when estimated; uncertainty forces a non‑zero lower bound that rises with error.
In simple terms: Estimated probabilities must be >0 due to error.
Key Takeaway
Recognize uncertainty in any estimate.
Themes
probability
uncertainty
estimation
error
statistics
Mood
cautious
analytical
Type
philosophical
practical
When to use this quote
- financial modeling
- scientific research
- policy making
- risk management
- decision making
Key Concepts
Bayesian inference
Laplace's principle
risk assessment
Questions to Reflect On
- How do you handle near‑zero probabilities in practice?
- What error bounds do you assume for your estimates?
A Different Perspective
Zero probability is only valid for logical impossibility, not empirical estimates.