The initial probability of there being a deity is not 50…
““The initial probability of there being a deity is not 50 percent, as some try to argue. This is a hidden assumption of agnosticism, which premises the thought that there is insufficient evidence to settle the matter either way. One can see this by asking what initial probability should be attached to the existence of (say) dryads or unicorns, or anything whose presence in myth, fable, legend and religion derives from what our remote ancestors handed down among their stories about the world. Whatever that probability is, if it is not 0 then it is vanishingly close to 0 – though it indeed seem odd even to say ‘the probability that unicorns exist is vanishingly small’. The mistake made by many is to think that because a particular tradition has been institutionalised in society, it increases the probability that the things it talks about actually exist.””
About This Quote
This interpretation was drafted with AI assistance. It is one reading of the quote, not the author's own explanation.
Assuming any non‑zero prior for deities makes their probability effectively zero, highlighting a flaw in agnostic reasoning.
In simple terms: Assigning any chance to gods renders it negligible.
Key Takeaway
Recognize hidden assumptions.
Themes
philosophy
probability
agnosticism
myth
evidence
Mood
analytical
skeptical
Type
The-god-argument:1
Assumption Agnosticism:1
Unicorns Exist:0
Probability Deity:1
Probability Unicorns:0
Agnosticism Premises:1
When to use this quote
- debates on existence
- academic discourse
- personal belief systems
Key Concepts
Bayesian reasoning
epistemology
logical fallacy
Questions to Reflect On
- How do priors shape belief?
- Can myth inform probability?
A Different Perspective
Agnosticism may allow for unknown possibilities.