A proper sense of proportion leaves no room for…
““A proper sense of proportion leaves no room for superstition. A man says, "I have never been in a shipwreck," and becoming nervous touches wood. Why is he nervous? He has this paragraph before his eyes: "Among the deceased was Mr. ——. By a remarkable coincidence this gentleman had been saying only a few days before that he had never been in a shipwreck. Little did he think that his next voyage would falsify his words so tragically." It occurs to him that he has read paragraphs like that again and again. Perhaps he has. Certainly he has never read a paragraph like this: "Among the deceased was Mr. ——. By a remarkable coincidence this gentleman had never made the remark that he had not yet been in a shipwreck." Yet that paragraph could have been written truthfully thousands of times.””
About This Quote
This interpretation was drafted with AI assistance. It is one reading of the quote, not the author's own explanation.
Overreliance on patterns can create false confidence; recognizing randomness prevents misinterpretation of coincidences.
In simple terms: Seeing patterns everywhere can mislead; accept randomness.
Key Takeaway
Stay skeptical of seeming patterns.
Themes
cognition
probability
skepticism
Mood
thoughtful
analytical
Type
philosophical
educational
When to use this quote
- risk assessment
- decision making
- storytelling
- critical thinking
Key Concepts
confirmation bias
randomness
statistics
Questions to Reflect On
- What patterns do you assume exist?
- How do you test if a pattern is real?
A Different Perspective
Pattern seeking can cause unnecessary fear or false security.