Clear view Quote by Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran
““As Paul Saffo, a forecaster of large-scale change at Discern Analytics, observes wisely, 'Change is never linear. Our expectations are linear, but new technologies come in S curves, so we routinely overestimate short-term change and underestimate long-term change.' Never mistake a clear view for a short distance, he adds.””
About This Quote
Source Interview: The Future of Technology, Discern Analytics, 2020
Change follows S‑curve patterns; expectations are linear, causing short‑term overestimation and long‑term underestimation.
In simple terms: Change is S‑shaped; we misjudge its speed.
Key Takeaway
Adjust forecasts to account for non‑linear growth.
Themes
technology
forecasting
bias
policy
economics
Mood
cautious
analytical
Type
insightful
strategic
When to use this quote
- product development
- investment planning
- public policy
- personal career strategy
Key Concepts
S‑curve dynamics
cognitive bias
systemic inertia
Questions to Reflect On
- How can you incorporate S‑curve thinking into your decisions?
- What long‑term trends are you overlooking?
A Different Perspective
Linear thinking can ignore disruptive breakthroughs.
