The cone of uncertainty shows that during the feasibility…
““The cone of uncertainty shows that during the feasibility phase of a project a schedule estimate is typically as far off as 60% to 160%. That is, a project expected to take 20 weeks could take anywhere from 12 to 32 weeks. After the requirements are written, the estimate might still be off +/- 15% in either direction. So an estimate of 20 weeks means work that takes 17 to 23 weeks. Figure 1.1. The cone of uncertainty narrows as the project progresses.””
About This Quote
This interpretation was drafted with AI assistance. It is one reading of the quote, not the author's own explanation.
Project estimates improve as details become clearer, narrowing uncertainty over time.
In simple terms: Estimates get tighter with progress.
Key Takeaway
Refine estimates iteratively.
Themes
project management
uncertainty
estimation
planning
risk
Mood
analytical
cautious
Type
Project Expected:1
Schedule Estimate:1
Cone Uncertainty:1
Feasibility Phase:1
Project Schedule:1
When to use this quote
- software development
- construction
- research projects
Key Concepts
cone of uncertainty
schedule forecasting
progress tracking
Questions to Reflect On
- How can we improve early forecasts?
- What factors cause estimate drift?
A Different Perspective
Early estimates may be overly optimistic.