Likelihood Quote by Benjamin Graham
““The psychologists Daniel Kahnerman and Amos Tversky have shown when humans estimate the likelihood or frequency of an event, we make that judgment based not on how often the event has actually occurred, but on how vivid the past examples are.””
About This Quote
Source Book: “The Intelligent Investor” by Benjamin Graham, 1949
People judge event frequency by the vividness of memorable examples rather than actual statistics, leading to biased risk assessment.
In simple terms: Memories, not data, drive our probability judgments.
Key Takeaway
Base decisions on data, not vivid anecdotes.
Themes
cognition
bias
probability
decision making
psychology
Mood
analytical
cautious
Type
financial
educational
When to use this quote
- investment analysis
- risk assessment
- media reporting
- public policy
Key Concepts
heuristics
availability bias
behavioral finance
Questions to Reflect On
- How do you verify the frequency of an event?
- Can you recall a vivid example that distorted your judgment?
A Different Perspective
Vivid stories can be useful but may mislead.
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