“systems theory or, as some people might call it, complexity theory? The simplest explanation is that it is the study of interactions.” — Rich Jolly Complexity Copy Share Image
“In system dynamic simulation, this data set is referred to as the reference behavior pattern (RBP).” — Rich Jolly Habits Copy Share Image
“Generally, the modeler should look for natural boundaries of the system to capture the most important and impactful structure.” — Rich Jolly Architecture Copy Share Image
“Surowiecki outlined four conditions that characterized wise crowds: 1. Diversity of opinion 2. Independence 3. Decentralization 4. An aggregation mechanism” — Rich Jolly Freedom Copy Share Image
“Evolution is antifragile! While individuals in the population are fragile, the population as a whole is antifragile.” — Rich Jolly Biology Copy Share Image
“Delay is another crucial component in the structure of dynamic systems. In most cases, the process of feedback is not instantaneous. As… — Rich Jolly Change Copy Share Image
“3. Look for Building Blocks—Look at your diagram of feedback loops and delays to identify potential building blocks, either linked feedback loops… — Rich Jolly Building blocks Copy Share Image
“Systems reside in a nested structure; that is, each component in a system is a system in itself. And every system we… — Rich Jolly Copy Share Image
“5. Search for Leverage Points and Potential Unintended Consequences of Interventions—When a model produces dynamic behavior like the real system, start to… — Rich Jolly Unintended consequences Copy Share Image
“The scientific method asserts that one cannot prove a hypothesis, only disprove it. Seeing more white swans may strengthen the hypothesis, but… — Rich Jolly Black swan Copy Share Image
“Just because an individual ant seems to wander around aimlessly, doesn't mean a colony of ants will behave this way. This is… — Rich Jolly Ants Copy Share Image
“A Black Swan event has three important characteristics. 1. The event is unexpected, or considered improbable, to the observer. 2. The event… — Rich Jolly Black swan Copy Share Image
“It was the dominance of the choice to rat out the other that drove the group to a deficient outcome. The individuals… — Rich Jolly Copy Share Image
“at its core, the Black Swan is a modeling problem. The observer has deemed the event improbable based on their existing experiences… — Rich Jolly Black swan Copy Share Image
“There Is Value in Trial and Error—Sponsor trial and error in your organization—viva la entrepreneur. Take the example of Google. Google allows… — Rich Jolly Business Copy Share Image
“4. Sketch Out Possible Dynamic Behaviors—Given the structure you have identified, what possible dynamic behaviors can be produced? Compare those to what… — Rich Jolly Copy Share Image
“Google has studied this with their prediction markets and found evidence for better information flow for employees who were physically closer together… — Rich Jolly Copy Share Image
“if you have chosen the most prominent expert to work on a problem, the performance of a diverse group containing that expert… — Rich Jolly Copy Share Image
“Diversity Prediction Theorem, which asserts that diversity and accuracy contribute equally to group performance. This says, in essence, that it is equally… — Rich Jolly Diversity Copy Share Image
“By its morphology, an antifragile object should be the opposite of a fragile object. So, something that is antifragile should gain, or… — Rich Jolly Copy Share Image
“The core idea behind the wisdom of crowds effect is that diverse knowledge and expertise is being collected and aggregated. Essentially, it… — Rich Jolly Wisdom Copy Share Image
