Chance Quote by Amos Tversky
“Chance is commonly viewed as a self-correcting process in which a deviation in one direction induces a deviation in the opposite direction to restore the equilibrium. In fact, deviations are not "corrected" as a chance process unfolds, they are merely diluted.”
About This Quote
Source Journal Article: Judgment and Decision Making, 1974
Chance does not correct deviations; it merely dilutes them, so outcomes drift rather than return to equilibrium.
In simple terms: Chance dilutes, not corrects, deviations.
Key Takeaway
Recognize randomness doesn’t guarantee balance.
Themes
probability
randomness
equilibrium
dilution
misconception
Mood
analytical
cautious
educational
Type
advice
philosophical
When to use this quote
- financial markets
- weather forecasting
- clinical trials
- policy making
Key Concepts
stochastic processes
bias correction
statistical thinking
Questions to Reflect On
- How do you account for random drift in planning?
- What strategies counteract dilution of errors?
A Different Perspective
Assuming chance will fix errors can lead to complacency.
