“at its core, the Black Swan is a modeling problem. The observer has deemed the event improbable based on their existing experiences which serve as their current data set.” — Rich Jolly Copy Share Image
“A Black Swan event has three important characteristics. 1. The event is unexpected, or considered improbable, to the observer. 2. The event has a major impact on the observer. 3. In hindsight, the observer rationalizes that they "should have seen… — Rich Jolly Copy Share Image
“The idea of antifragility, for which evolution is the most important example, gives us tremendous guidance: o Seek out low-cost options in your business… — Rich Jolly Copy Share
“In the early phases, the structure exhibits exponential growth. This identifies the reinforcing loop. However, the balancing loop is effectively dormant. It's only later… — Rich Jolly Copy Share
“In real life situations, there are often many feedback loops present, with perhaps several dormant feedback loops lying in wait.” — Rich Jolly Copy Share
“In system dynamic simulation, this data set is referred to as the reference behavior pattern (RBP).” — Rich Jolly Copy Share
“The negative effects of virtuous turned vicious loops is an extremely important lesson to keep in mind.” — Rich Jolly Copy Share
“7. Remember It’s Only a Model—Always remember George Box's excellent advice, “All models are wrong, but some are useful.” The feedback and delays you… — Rich Jolly Copy Share
“The scientific method asserts that one cannot prove a hypothesis, only disprove it. Seeing more white swans may strengthen the hypothesis, but seeing a… — Rich Jolly Copy Share
“Surowiecki outlined four conditions that characterized wise crowds: 1. Diversity of opinion 2. Independence 3. Decentralization 4. An aggregation mechanism” — Rich Jolly Copy Share
“Generally, the modeler should look for natural boundaries of the system to capture the most important and impactful structure.” — Rich Jolly Copy Share
“if your business ecosystem seems stable, don't be lulled into a potentially false sense of security. Big changes can happen very quickly. Don't confuse… — Rich Jolly Copy Share
“Google has studied this with their prediction markets and found evidence for better information flow for employees who were physically closer together (Cowgill et… — Rich Jolly Copy Share
“In his excellent book Turtles, Termites, and Traffic Jams (1997), Mitchel Resnick outlines a list of five heuristics associated with the aggregation of interactions:… — Rich Jolly Copy Share
“In a prioritized list of further reading on this topic, there is no question what comes first: Peter Senge's The Fifth Discipline.” — Rich Jolly Copy Share
“To paraphrase Surowiecki and Mackay, there can be a fine line between the Wisdom of Crowds and the Madness of Crowds.” — Rich Jolly Copy Share
