More than two thousand years ago, the Roman orator…
““More than two thousand years ago, the Roman orator, belletrist, thinker, Stoic, manipulator-politician, and (usually) virtuous gentleman, Marcus Tullius Cicero, presented the following story. One Diagoras, a nonbeliever in the gods, was shown painted tablets bearing the portraits of some worshippers who prayed, then survived a subsequent shipwreck. The implication was that praying protects you from drowning. Diagoras asked, "Where were the pictures of those who prayed, then drowned?" The drowned worshippers, being dead, would have a lot of trouble advertising their experiences from the bottom of the sea. This can fool the casual observer into believing in miracles.””
About This Quote
This interpretation was drafted with AI assistance. It is one reading of the quote, not the author's own explanation.
The anecdote illustrates how selective evidence can create false beliefs about cause and effect, especially regarding miracles.
In simple terms: People see only successes, not failures, and assume a link.
Key Takeaway
Beware of survivorship bias.
Themes
critical thinking
statistics
belief formation
Mood
skeptical
inquisitive
Type
analytical
philosophical
When to use this quote
- risk assessment
- policy making
- personal belief evaluation
Key Concepts
survivorship bias
causality
probability
Questions to Reflect On
- How do you verify claims that rely on anecdotal evidence?
- What evidence would disprove a widely held belief?
A Different Perspective
It ignores that many non‑prayers also survive, and that correlation isn’t causation.