Expansions do not die of old age. The probability of…
“Expansions do not die of old age. The probability of recession in the following year is the same for a three-year-old expansion as it is for a five- or six-year-old expansion.”
About This Quote
This interpretation was drafted with AI assistance. It is one reading of the quote, not the author's own explanation.
Expansion age does not affect recession odds; cycles are independent of firm age.
In simple terms: Recession risk stays similar over time.
Key Takeaway
Monitor macro trends, not just firm age.
Themes
economics
business cycles
recession risk
expansion dynamics
statistical probability
Mood
analytical
cautious
Type
forecasting
strategic
When to use this quote
- financial forecasting
- investment timing
- policy planning
- corporate strategy
- risk management
Key Concepts
cycle theory
risk assessment
macro analysis
Questions to Reflect On
- How do you adjust strategy during different expansion phases?
- What indicators signal an upcoming recession?
A Different Perspective
Older firms may have more resilience despite similar odds.