“To paraphrase Surowiecki and Mackay, there can be a fine line between the Wisdom of Crowds and the Madness of Crowds.” — Rich Jolly Copy Share Image
“systems theory or, as some people might call it, complexity theory? The simplest explanation is that it is the study of interactions.” — Rich Jolly Complexity Copy Share Image
“Qualitative system dynamics is a powerful tool to help categorize behaviors as endogenous or exogenous with respect to the system under study.” — Rich Jolly Copy Share Image
“In real life situations, there are often many feedback loops present, with perhaps several dormant feedback loops lying in wait.” — Rich Jolly Life Copy Share Image
“1. Identify the System—Perhaps the most important aspect here is specifying the system boundary” — Rich Jolly Boundary Copy Share Image
“Emergence: A phenomenon where an interaction among objects at one level generates new types of objects at another level. The emergent characteristic… — Rich Jolly Emergence Copy Share Image
“The psychological bias here is called competition neglect, and was initially identified by Camerer and Lovallo (1999). The bias is quite simply… — Rich Jolly Bias Copy Share Image
“Storing information as a story, linked with causality, could help meet the biological need to efficiently store, retrieve, and reduce the dimensionality… — Rich Jolly Causality Copy Share Image
“System variables are frequently not being uncontrollably manipulated by outside agencies like puppets on a string, but rather are responding to the… — Rich Jolly Copy Share Image
“While ants may be extremely strong for their weight, they're not particularly smart. Instead, the ant hill is built from the interactions… — Rich Jolly Ants Copy Share Image
“Page lists four types of relevant diversity: o Diversity in perspectives: ways of representing. o Diversity in interpretations: categorizing. o Diversity in… — Rich Jolly Diversity Copy Share Image
“The core idea behind the wisdom of crowds effect is that diverse knowledge and expertise is being collected and aggregated. Essentially, it… — Rich Jolly Wisdom Copy Share Image
“By its morphology, an antifragile object should be the opposite of a fragile object. So, something that is antifragile should gain, or… — Rich Jolly Copy Share Image
“if you have chosen the most prominent expert to work on a problem, the performance of a diverse group containing that expert… — Rich Jolly Copy Share Image
“Diversity Prediction Theorem, which asserts that diversity and accuracy contribute equally to group performance. This says, in essence, that it is equally… — Rich Jolly Diversity Copy Share Image
“at its core, the Black Swan is a modeling problem. The observer has deemed the event improbable based on their existing experiences… — Rich Jolly Black swan Copy Share Image
“There Is Value in Trial and Error—Sponsor trial and error in your organization—viva la entrepreneur. Take the example of Google. Google allows… — Rich Jolly Business Copy Share Image
“4. Sketch Out Possible Dynamic Behaviors—Given the structure you have identified, what possible dynamic behaviors can be produced? Compare those to what… — Rich Jolly Copy Share Image
“Google has studied this with their prediction markets and found evidence for better information flow for employees who were physically closer together… — Rich Jolly Copy Share Image
“A Black Swan event has three important characteristics. 1. The event is unexpected, or considered improbable, to the observer. 2. The event… — Rich Jolly Black swan Copy Share Image
“It was the dominance of the choice to rat out the other that drove the group to a deficient outcome. The individuals… — Rich Jolly Copy Share Image
