“Risk, as first articulated by the economist Frank H. Knight in 1921, is somethimg that you can put a price on…Uncertainty, on… — Nate Silver Copy Share Image
“You will need to learn how to express-and quantify-the uncertainty in your predictions. You will need to update your forecast as facts… — Nate Silver Copy Share Image
“...the ratings agencies' problem was in being unable or uninterested in appreciating the distinction between risk and uncertainty.” — Nate Silver Copy Share Image
Expert estimates of probability are often off by factors of hundreds or thousands. [...] I used to be annoyed when the margin… — Nate Silver Copy Share Image
“When we advance more confident claims and they fail to come to fruition, this constitutes much more powerful evidence against our hypothesis.… — Nate Silver Copy Share Image
Finding patterns is easy in any kind of data-rich environment; that's what mediocre gamblers do. The key is in determining whether the patterns represent… — Nate Silver Copy Share
Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise. — Nate Silver Copy Share
“These partisan beliefs can upset the equation in which more information will bring us closer to the truth. A recent study in Nature found… — Nate Silver Copy Share
The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are. — Nate Silver Copy Share
“But forecasters often resist considering these out-of-sample problems. When we expand our sample to include events further apart from us in time and space,… — Nate Silver Copy Share
Well, you know, you're not going to have 86 percent of Congress voted out of office. — Nate Silver Copy Share
The quest for certainty in forecasting outcomes can be the enemy of progress. — Nate Silver Copy Share
To be a very, very minor, eighth-tier celebrity, you realize, 'Hey, celebrities are just like us.' — Nate Silver Copy Share
“Most of you will have heard the maxim "correlation does not imply causation." Just because two variables have a statistical relationship with each other… — Nate Silver Copy Share
Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans… — Nate Silver Copy Share
![“Expert estimates of probability are often off by factors of hundreds or thousands. [...] I used to be annoyed when the margin of error was high in a forecasting model that I might put together. Now I view it as perhaps the single most important piece of information that a forecaster provides. When…” quote by Nate Silver](https://sms4smile.com/q/img-quotes/d3b/nate-silver-3166_annoyed_expert-estimates-of-probability-are-ofte_2056533.jpg)
