“probability is principally a branch of applied skepticism,” — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Copy Share Image
Probability is not about the odds, but about the belief in the existence of an alternative outcome, cause, or motive. — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Copy Share Image
Probability and expectation are not the same. Its probability and probability times the pay off. — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Copy Share Image
“Outside of textbooks and casinos, probability almost never presents itself as a mathematical problem or a brain teaser.” — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Copy Share Image
“There is asymmetry. Those who die do so very early in the game, while those who live go on living very long.… — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Copy Share Image
Probability is not a mere computation of odds on the dice or more complicated variants; it is the acceptance of the lack… — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Copy Share Image
Failure saves lives. In the airline industry, every time a plane crashes the probability of the next crash is lowered by that. — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Copy Share Image
If you sat with a pencil and jotted down all the decisions you've taken in the past week, or, if you could,… — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Copy Share Image
I've debated many economists who claim to specialize in risk and probability: when one takes them slightly outside their narrow focus, but… — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Copy Share Image
Failure saves lives. In the airline industry, every time a plane crashes the probability of the next crash is lowered by that.… — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Copy Share Image
Wittgenstein's ruler: Unless you have confidence in the ruler's reliability, if you use a ruler to measure a table you may also be using… — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Copy Share
In politics we face the choice between warmongering, nation-state loving, big-business agents on one hand; and risk-blind, top-down, epistemic arrogant big servants of large… — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Copy Share
My nightmare scenario is that the government saves Citibank once again, as well as the other banks, and business resumes as usual. Then, the… — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Copy Share
Using, as an excuse, others' failure of common sense is in itself a failure of common sense. — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Copy Share
You know, children philosophize more than adults - and they are critical of adults. — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Copy Share
“Suckers think that you cure greed with money, addiction with substances, expert problems with experts, banking with bankers, economics with economists, and debt crises… — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Copy Share
“One needs to go out and buy a lottery ticket in order to win. Does it mean that the work involved in the trip… — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Copy Share
Individuals should think about the worst-case scenarios and plan for them. The world will be crazier than you think it will be. Put money… — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Copy Share
“If you are looking for your misplaced wallet in your living room, in a trial and error mode, you exercise rationality by not looking… — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Copy Share
“Most humans manage to squander their free time, as free time makes them dysfunctional, lazy, and unmotivated—the busier they get, the more active they… — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Copy Share
We learn the most from fools ... yet we pay them back with the worst ingratitude. — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Copy Share
We are victims of the post-Enlightenment view that the world functions like a sophisticated machine, to be understood like a textbook engineering problem and… — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Copy Share
“loss of bone density and degradation of the health of the bones also causes aging, diabetes, and, for males, loss of fertility and sexual… — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Copy Share
“It takes a huge investment in introspection to learn that the thirty or more hours spent “studying” the news last month neither had any… — Nassim Nicholas Taleb Copy Share
