Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you… — Nate Silver Copy Share Image
I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll… — Nate Silver Copy Share Image
Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much. — Nate Silver Copy Share Image
If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day… — Nate Silver Copy Share Image
The problem is that when polls are wrong, they tend to be wrong in the same direction. If they miss in New… — Nate Silver Copy Share Image
We look at all the polls, not just the Gallup Poll. So, it's kind of like if you have, you know, four… — Nate Silver Copy Share Image
Finding patterns is easy in any kind of data-rich environment; that's what mediocre gamblers do. The key is in determining whether the patterns represent… — Nate Silver Copy Share
Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise. — Nate Silver Copy Share
“These partisan beliefs can upset the equation in which more information will bring us closer to the truth. A recent study in Nature found… — Nate Silver Copy Share
The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are. — Nate Silver Copy Share
“But forecasters often resist considering these out-of-sample problems. When we expand our sample to include events further apart from us in time and space,… — Nate Silver Copy Share
Well, you know, you're not going to have 86 percent of Congress voted out of office. — Nate Silver Copy Share
The quest for certainty in forecasting outcomes can be the enemy of progress. — Nate Silver Copy Share
To be a very, very minor, eighth-tier celebrity, you realize, 'Hey, celebrities are just like us.' — Nate Silver Copy Share
“Most of you will have heard the maxim "correlation does not imply causation." Just because two variables have a statistical relationship with each other… — Nate Silver Copy Share
Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans… — Nate Silver Copy Share
