--- title: "Meaning & Key Takeaway of: A good decision cannot guarantee a good…" description: "\"“A good decision cannot guarantee a good outcome. All real decisions are made under uncertainty. A decision is therefore a bet, and evaluating it as go..." image: "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/8b3/ward-edwards-286321_decision-making_a-good-decision-cannot-guarantee-a-good_743093.jpg" --- # A good decision cannot guarantee a good outcome. All real… ![“A good decision cannot guarantee a good outcome. All real decisions are made under uncertainty. A decision is therefore a bet, and evaluating it as good or not must depend on the stakes and the odds, not on the outcome.” quote by Ward Edwards](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/8b3/ward-edwards-286321_decision-making_a-good-decision-cannot-guarantee-a-good_743093.jpg) [Download](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/8b3/ward-edwards-286321_decision-making_a-good-decision-cannot-guarantee-a-good_743093.jpg) [Open image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/8b3/ward-edwards-286321_decision-making_a-good-decision-cannot-guarantee-a-good_743093.jpg) > ““A good decision cannot guarantee a good outcome. All real decisions are made under uncertainty. A decision is therefore a bet, and evaluating it as good or not must depend on the stakes and the odds, not on the outcome.”” Ward Edwards ## About This Quote This interpretation was drafted with AI assistance. It is one reading of the quote, not the author's own explanation. Decision making involves uncertainty; outcomes are bets, judged by stakes and odds, not guarantees. **In simple terms:** Decisions are bets under uncertainty. Key Takeaway Assess risk, not just outcome. Themes decision making uncertainty probability stakes risk assessment Mood analytical cautious thoughtful Type Decision making:1 Probability:1 Stakes:1 Uncertainty:1 Decisions Uncertainty:1 Decision Bet:1 Uncertainty Decision:1 Decision Guarantee:0 When to use this quote - business strategy - personal finance - policy planning Key Concepts economics statistics philosophy Questions to Reflect On - How do you weigh moral considerations? - When is a risk acceptable? A Different Perspective Overemphasis on odds may ignore ethical factors. ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ No ratings yet [Decision making](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/decision-making/) [Probability](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/probability/) [Uncertainty](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/uncertainty/) ## Related quotes > [“New information muddies the picture. Once we finally reach a decision, we are relieved to have the uncertainty of decision making behind us. And…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/dietrich-d-rner/new-information-muddies-the-picture-once-we-finally-reach-a-decision/) [Dietrich Dörner](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/dietrich-d-rner/) > [Whether baseball or football, we're tasked in front offices with making decisions under uncertainty. How do you corral that uncertainty in a way to…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/paul-depodesta/whether-baseball-or-football-we-re-tasked-in-front-offices-with/) [Paul DePodesta](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/paul-depodesta/) > [“Think of every decision as a bet with a probability and a reward for being right and a probability and a penalty for being…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/think-of-every-decision-as-a-bet-with-a-probability-and-a-reward-for/) [Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/) > [The probability that a genius can do stupid things is much higher than the probability that a stupid can do genius things.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/mehmet-murat-ildan/the-probability-that-a-genius-can-do-stupid-things-is-much-higher/) [Mehmet Murat Ildan](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/mehmet-murat-ildan/) > [You must maximize the probability that someone shows up at front door of your store or website and ends up with a solved problem.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/drew-houston/you-must-maximize-the-probability-that-someone-shows-up-at-front-door/) [Drew Houston](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/drew-houston/) > [If WE claim only reasonable probability, it will be as much as men who love the truth can ever at any given moment hope…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/william-james/if-we-claim-only-reasonable-probability-it-will-be-as-much-as-men-who/) [William James](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/william-james/) > [I believe that we do not know anything for certain, but everything probably.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/christiaan-huygens/i-believe-that-we-do-not-know-anything-for-certain-but-everything/) [Christiaan Huygens](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/christiaan-huygens/) > [The probability of failure doesn't matter to me.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/vinod-khosla/the-probability-of-failure-doesn-t-matter-to-me/) [Vinod Khosla](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/vinod-khosla/) > [I also, as I think most people do, have a healthy instinct that if we upset the balance of nature, we are in all…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/tony-blair/i-also-as-i-think-most-people-do-have-a-healthy-instinct-that-if-we/) [Tony Blair](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/tony-blair/) > [The lower the family income, the higher the probability that the mother must work. Today, 1 out of 5 of these working mothers has…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/john-f-kennedy/the-lower-the-family-income-the-higher-the-probability-that-the/) [John F. Kennedy](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/john-f-kennedy/) > [It has been pointed out already that no knowledge of probabilities, less in degree than certainty, helps us to know what conclusions are true,…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/john-maynard-keynes/it-has-been-pointed-out-already-that-no-knowledge-of-probabilities/) [John Maynard Keynes](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/john-maynard-keynes/) > [We can say with certainty - or 90% probability - that the new industries that are about to be born will have nothing to…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/peter-drucker/we-can-say-with-certainty-or-90-probability-that-the-new-industries/) [Peter Drucker](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/peter-drucker/) > [“I don't simply create probabilities, I guide them.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/lionel-suggs/i-don-t-simply-create-probabilities-i-guide-them/) [Lionel Suggs](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/lionel-suggs/) > [Some people are under the impression that all that is required to make a good fisherman is the ability to tell lies easily and…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/jerome-k-jerome/some-people-are-under-the-impression-that-all-that-is-required-to/) [Jerome K. Jerome](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/jerome-k-jerome/) > [Everything is allowable in literature, but what is not allowable in criticism is objection on the grounds of probability.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/howard-jacobson/everything-is-allowable-in-literature-but-what-is-not-allowable-in/) [Howard Jacobson](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/howard-jacobson/) ## More Decision making quotes > [Making the right decision is hard,telling someone your decision is even harder.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/abhishek-tiwari/making-the-right-decision-is-hard-telling-someone-your-decision-is/) [Abhishek Tiwari](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/abhishek-tiwari/) > [It is said that history turns on small hinges. A human career, too, results from an accumulating series of decisions about large and small…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/norman-vincent-peale/it-is-said-that-history-turns-on-small-hinges-a-human-career-too/) [Norman Vincent Peale](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/norman-vincent-peale/) > [“Exactly. So, what can't you take? Decide which of the two options is harder, and do the other. That way, no matter how hard…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/josephine-angelini/exactly-so-what-can-t-you-take-decide-which-of-the-two-options-is/) [Josephine Angelini](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/josephine-angelini/) > [“How can you make an informed decision about whether to save the world if you never leave your tiny part of it?”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/shaun-david-hutchinson/how-can-you-make-an-informed-decision-about-whether-to-save-the-world/) [Shaun David Hutchinson](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/shaun-david-hutchinson/) > [Indecision becomes decision with time.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/anonymous/indecision-becomes-decision-with-time/) [Anonymous](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/anonymous/) > [If you think of people as making decisions actively, every time we think about the cup of coffee, we say, "How much will I…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/dan-ariely/if-you-think-of-people-as-making-decisions-actively-every-time-we/) [Dan Ariely](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/dan-ariely/) > [Decision is a risk rooted in the courage of being free.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/paul-tillich/decision-is-a-risk-rooted-in-the-courage-of-being-free/) [Paul Tillich](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/paul-tillich/) > [I never think of things rationally or intellectually. I swear, every single decision I make is just instinct and my instincts tend to be…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/neill-blomkamp/i-never-think-of-things-rationally-or-intellectually-i-swear-every/) [Neill Blomkamp](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/neill-blomkamp/) > [“Slow down your thinking so you can note the criteria you are using to make your decision. 2. Write the criteria down as a principle.…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/slow-down-your-thinking-so-you-can-note-the-criteria-you-are-using-to/) [Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/) > [My best business decision was to be independent as a musician and artist. My worst was compromising on certain aspects of a deal for…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ziggy-marley/my-best-business-decision-was-to-be-independent-as-a-musician-and/) [Ziggy Marley](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ziggy-marley/) > [“Making a decision takes a moment, living a decision takes a life-time.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/sherif-a-el-mawardy/making-a-decision-takes-a-moment-living-a-decision-takes-a-life-time/) [Sherif A. El-Mawardy](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/sherif-a-el-mawardy/) > [Cheshvan starts tonight," Rixon said, "What are you doing arsing around in a graveyard?" "Thinking." "Thinking?" "A process by which I use my brain…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/becca-fitzpatrick/cheshvan-starts-tonight-rixon-said-what-are-you-doing-arsing-around/) [Becca Fitzpatrick](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/becca-fitzpatrick/) > [The right decision is the wrong decision if it's made too late.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/lee-iacocca/the-right-decision-is-the-wrong-decision-if-it-s-made-too-late/) [Lee Iacocca](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/lee-iacocca/) > [“The decisions we take reflects our belief and our charachter”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/rajnish-borah/the-decisions-we-take-reflects-our-belief-and-our-charachter/) Rajnish Borah > [I think most of us are raised with preconceived notions of the choices we're supposed to make. We waste so much time making decisions…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/sandra-bullock/i-think-most-of-us-are-raised-with-preconceived-notions-of-the/) [Sandra Bullock](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/sandra-bullock/) [Browse all 4,912 Decision making quotes ](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/decision-making/) ```json { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@graph": [ { "@type": "Quotation", "text": "“A good decision cannot guarantee a good outcome. All real decisions are made under uncertainty. 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