--- title: "Meaning & Key Takeaway of: The important point here is that with…" description: "\"“The important point here is that with hindsight it is always possible to spot the most anomalous features of the data and build a favorable statistica..." image: "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/226/thomas-gilovich-10928_average-person_the-important-point-here-is-that-with-hi_600836.jpg" --- # The important point here is that with hindsight it is… ![“The important point here is that with hindsight it is always possible to spot the most anomalous features of the data and build a favorable statistical analysis around them. However, a properly-trained scientist (or simply a wise person) avoids doing so because he or she recognizes that…” quote by Thomas Gilovich](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/226/thomas-gilovich-10928_average-person_the-important-point-here-is-that-with-hi_600836.jpg) [Download](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/226/thomas-gilovich-10928_average-person_the-important-point-here-is-that-with-hi_600836.jpg) [Open image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/226/thomas-gilovich-10928_average-person_the-important-point-here-is-that-with-hi_600836.jpg) > ““The important point here is that with hindsight it is always possible to spot the most anomalous features of the data and build a favorable statistical analysis around them. However, a properly-trained scientist (or simply a wise person) avoids doing so because he or she recognizes that constructing a statistical analysis retrospectively capitalizes too much on chance and renders the analysis meaningless. To the scientist, such apparent anomalies merely suggest hypotheses that are subsequently tested on other, independent sets of data. Only if the anomaly persists is the hypothesis to be taken seriously. Unfortunately, the intuitive assessments of the average person are not bound by these constraints. Hypotheses that are formed on the basis of one set of results are considered to have been proven by those very same results. By retrospectively and selectively perusing the data in this way, people tend to make too much of apparent anomalies and too often end up detecting order where none exists.”” [Thomas Gilovich](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/thomas-gilovich/) ## About This Quote This interpretation was drafted with AI assistance. It is one reading of the quote, not the author's own explanation. Retrospective data analysis can overemphasize random anomalies, leading to false conclusions; proper scientific practice demands hypothesis testing on independent data to avoid spurious patterns. **In simple terms:** Looking back at data can mislead; test ideas on new data. Key Takeaway Validate findings with fresh, independent evidence. Themes statistics scientific method bias hypothesis testing data mining Mood cautious inquisitive Type educational analytical When to use this quote - research studies - financial forecasting - medical trials - policy analysis Key Concepts confirmation bias post‑hoc rationalization overfitting Questions to Reflect On - How can we guard against seeing patterns where none exist? - What processes ensure robust hypothesis testing? A Different Perspective Real‑world data often contain noise that mimics patterns. ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ No ratings yet [Anomalies](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/anomalies/) [Average person](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/average-person/) ## Related quotes > [It is an anomaly that information, the one thing most necessary to our survival as choosers of our own way, should be a commodity…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/a-j-liebling/it-is-an-anomaly-that-information-the-one-thing-most-necessary-to-our/) [A. J. Liebling](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/a-j-liebling/) > [In a noted 1943 Harvard study, there were no cases of toxemia, congenital anomalies, or neonatal deaths among a group of well-fed woman. In…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/tom-brewer/in-a-noted-1943-harvard-study-there-were-no-cases-of-toxemia/) Tom Brewer > [In any long string of letters, one can find countless anomalies that will seem like convincing proofs of hidden meaning to the mind that…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/benjamin-wittes/in-any-long-string-of-letters-one-can-find-countless-anomalies-that/) [Benjamin Wittes](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/benjamin-wittes/) > [When circumstances defy order, order should bend or break: anomalies and uncertainties give validity to architecture.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/robert-venturi/when-circumstances-defy-order-order-should-bend-or-break-anomalies/) [Robert Venturi](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/robert-venturi/) > [Anomaly is when you don't fit the expected norm. Like "wait what is this?! It doesn't belong here." Its what the system never planned…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/lecrae/anomaly-is-when-you-don-t-fit-the-expected-norm-like-wait-what-is/) [LeCrae](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/lecrae/) > [Writing is, in the end, that oddest of anomalies: an intimate letter to a stranger.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/pico-iyer/writing-is-in-the-end-that-oddest-of-anomalies-an-intimate-letter-to/) [Pico Iyer](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/pico-iyer/) > [Auditioning for television shows - to find a guy who has a lot of experience as a laborer is a bit of an anomaly.…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nick-offerman/auditioning-for-television-shows-to-find-a-guy-who-has-a-lot-of/) [Nick Offerman](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nick-offerman/) > [And that singular anomaly, the lady novelist-- I don't think she'd be missed--I'm sure she'd not be missed!](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/w-s-gilbert/and-that-singular-anomaly-the-lady-novelist-i-don-t-think-she-d-be/) [W. S. Gilbert](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/w-s-gilbert/) > [Religion itself is an absurdity and an anomaly, and paganism is acceptable only because it represents that purely orgiastic phase of religion farthest from…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/h-p-lovecraft/religion-itself-is-an-absurdity-and-an-anomaly-and-paganism-is/) [H. P. Lovecraft](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/h-p-lovecraft/) > [For me, I want to see diversity in storytelling sources because we live in a very diverse society, and the stories are for the…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/lynn-shelton/for-me-i-want-to-see-diversity-in-storytelling-sources-because-we/) [Lynn Shelton](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/lynn-shelton/) > [“It's in the anomalies that nature reveals its secrets.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/johann-wolfgang-von-goethe/it-s-in-the-anomalies-that-nature-reveals-its-secrets/) [Johann Wolfgang von Goethe](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/johann-wolfgang-von-goethe/) > [I see that women still have self-doubt, and at the same time I feel like I see all these fantastic young women, and they…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/mary-harron/i-see-that-women-still-have-self-doubt-and-at-the-same-time-i-feel/) [Mary Harron](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/mary-harron/) > [An anomaly is not an abnormality. Diversity does not signify sickness.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/georges-canguilhem/an-anomaly-is-not-an-abnormality-diversity-does-not-signify-sickness/) [Georges Canguilhem](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/georges-canguilhem/) > [I'm definitely an anomaly, but I'm making things. They're selling, say, martinis, and I'm kind of making vintage Riesling. People aren't going to sit…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ben-folds/i-m-definitely-an-anomaly-but-i-m-making-things-they-re-selling-say/) [Ben Folds](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ben-folds/) > [And knowing what happens on average is a good place to start. By so doing, we insulate ourselves from the tendency to build our…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/anonymous/and-knowing-what-happens-on-average-is-a-good-place-to-start-by-so/) [Anonymous](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/anonymous/) ## More by Thomas Gilovich > [“Chapter 7 takes a psychological truism, “we tend to believe what we think others believe” and turns it around: We tend to think others…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/thomas-gilovich/chapter-7-takes-a-psychological-truism-we-tend-to-believe-what-we/) [Thomas Gilovich](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/thomas-gilovich/) > [“As part of this research, one group of participants was asked which two countries are more similar to one another, East Germany and West…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/thomas-gilovich/as-part-of-this-research-one-group-of-participants-was-asked-which/) [Thomas Gilovich](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/thomas-gilovich/) > [“Finally, it has been shown that the tendency for people to think of themselves as above average is reduced—even for ambiguous traits—when people are…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/thomas-gilovich/finally-it-has-been-shown-that-the-tendency-for-people-to-think-of/) [Thomas Gilovich](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/thomas-gilovich/) > [“It appears that the probabilistic sciences of psychology and medicine teach their students to apply statistical and methodological rules to both scientific and everyday-life…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/thomas-gilovich/it-appears-that-the-probabilistic-sciences-of-psychology-and-medicine/) [Thomas Gilovich](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/thomas-gilovich/) > [“To live, it seems, is to explain, to justify, and to find coherence among diverse outcomes, characteristics, and causes.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/thomas-gilovich/to-live-it-seems-is-to-explain-to-justify-and-to-find-coherence-among/) [Thomas Gilovich](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/thomas-gilovich/) > [“social psychologist Ziva Kunda, who argues that people are indeed more likely to believe things they want to believe, but that their capacity to…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/thomas-gilovich/social-psychologist-ziva-kunda-who-argues-that-people-are-indeed-more/) [Thomas Gilovich](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/thomas-gilovich/) > [We humans seem to be extremely good at generating ideas, theories, and explanations that have the ring of plausibility. We may be relatively deficient,…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/thomas-gilovich/we-humans-seem-to-be-extremely-good-at-generating-ideas-theories-and/) [Thomas Gilovich](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/thomas-gilovich/) > [“our difficulty in accurately recognizing random arrangements of events can lead us to believe things that are not true—to believe something is systematic, ordered,…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/thomas-gilovich/our-difficulty-in-accurately-recognizing-random-arrangements-of/) [Thomas Gilovich](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/thomas-gilovich/) > [“We therefore should be more skeptical than we seem to be about evidence presented to us secondhand. We should become accustomed to asking ourselves…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/thomas-gilovich/we-therefore-should-be-more-skeptical-than-we-seem-to-be-about/) [Thomas Gilovich](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/thomas-gilovich/) > [“In other words, when testing a hypothesis of similarity, people look for evidence of similarity rather than dissimilarity, and when testing a hypothesis of…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/thomas-gilovich/in-other-words-when-testing-a-hypothesis-of-similarity-people-look/) [Thomas Gilovich](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/thomas-gilovich/) > [What we believe is heavily influenced by what we think others believe](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/thomas-gilovich/what-we-believe-is-heavily-influenced-by-what-we-think-others-believe/) [Thomas Gilovich](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/thomas-gilovich/) > [“develop the habit of employing one of several “consider the opposite” strategies. We can learn to ask ourselves, for example, “Suppose the exact opposite…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/thomas-gilovich/develop-the-habit-of-employing-one-of-several-consider-the-opposite/) [Thomas Gilovich](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/thomas-gilovich/) > [“Unfortunately, psychology has not adequately come to grips with the difficult subject of entertainment (or with its opposite, boredom). Despite a few initial efforts…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/thomas-gilovich/unfortunately-psychology-has-not-adequately-come-to-grips-with-the/) [Thomas Gilovich](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/thomas-gilovich/) > [“confirmatory events are in fact much more memorable than non-confirmatory events.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/thomas-gilovich/confirmatory-events-are-in-fact-much-more-memorable-than-non/) [Thomas Gilovich](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/thomas-gilovich/) > [“Perhaps the most general and most important mental habit to instill is an appreciation of the folly of trying to draw conclusions from incomplete…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/thomas-gilovich/perhaps-the-most-general-and-most-important-mental-habit-to-instill/) [Thomas Gilovich](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/thomas-gilovich/) [Explore all 62 Thomas Gilovich quotes ](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/thomas-gilovich/) ## More Anomalies quotes > [It is an anomaly that information, the one thing most necessary to our survival as choosers of our own way, should be a commodity…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/a-j-liebling/it-is-an-anomaly-that-information-the-one-thing-most-necessary-to-our/) [A. J. Liebling](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/a-j-liebling/) > [I'm definitely an anomaly, but I'm making things. They're selling, say, martinis, and I'm kind of making vintage Riesling. People aren't going to sit…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ben-folds/i-m-definitely-an-anomaly-but-i-m-making-things-they-re-selling-say/) [Ben Folds](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ben-folds/) > [An anomaly is not an abnormality. Diversity does not signify sickness.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/georges-canguilhem/an-anomaly-is-not-an-abnormality-diversity-does-not-signify-sickness/) [Georges Canguilhem](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/georges-canguilhem/) > [I see that women still have self-doubt, and at the same time I feel like I see all these fantastic young women, and they…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/mary-harron/i-see-that-women-still-have-self-doubt-and-at-the-same-time-i-feel/) [Mary Harron](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/mary-harron/) > [“It's in the anomalies that nature reveals its secrets.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/johann-wolfgang-von-goethe/it-s-in-the-anomalies-that-nature-reveals-its-secrets/) [Johann Wolfgang von Goethe](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/johann-wolfgang-von-goethe/) > [For me, I want to see diversity in storytelling sources because we live in a very diverse society, and the stories are for the…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/lynn-shelton/for-me-i-want-to-see-diversity-in-storytelling-sources-because-we/) [Lynn Shelton](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/lynn-shelton/) > [Religion itself is an absurdity and an anomaly, and paganism is acceptable only because it represents that purely orgiastic phase of religion farthest from…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/h-p-lovecraft/religion-itself-is-an-absurdity-and-an-anomaly-and-paganism-is/) [H. P. Lovecraft](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/h-p-lovecraft/) > [And that singular anomaly, the lady novelist-- I don't think she'd be missed--I'm sure she'd not be missed!](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/w-s-gilbert/and-that-singular-anomaly-the-lady-novelist-i-don-t-think-she-d-be/) [W. S. Gilbert](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/w-s-gilbert/) > [Auditioning for television shows - to find a guy who has a lot of experience as a laborer is a bit of an anomaly.…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nick-offerman/auditioning-for-television-shows-to-find-a-guy-who-has-a-lot-of/) [Nick Offerman](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nick-offerman/) > [Writing is, in the end, that oddest of anomalies: an intimate letter to a stranger.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/pico-iyer/writing-is-in-the-end-that-oddest-of-anomalies-an-intimate-letter-to/) [Pico Iyer](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/pico-iyer/) > [Anomaly is when you don't fit the expected norm. Like "wait what is this?! It doesn't belong here." Its what the system never planned…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/lecrae/anomaly-is-when-you-don-t-fit-the-expected-norm-like-wait-what-is/) [LeCrae](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/lecrae/) > [When circumstances defy order, order should bend or break: anomalies and uncertainties give validity to architecture.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/robert-venturi/when-circumstances-defy-order-order-should-bend-or-break-anomalies/) [Robert Venturi](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/robert-venturi/) > [In any long string of letters, one can find countless anomalies that will seem like convincing proofs of hidden meaning to the mind that…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/benjamin-wittes/in-any-long-string-of-letters-one-can-find-countless-anomalies-that/) [Benjamin Wittes](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/benjamin-wittes/) > [In a noted 1943 Harvard study, there were no cases of toxemia, congenital anomalies, or neonatal deaths among a group of well-fed woman. In…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/tom-brewer/in-a-noted-1943-harvard-study-there-were-no-cases-of-toxemia/) Tom Brewer > [And knowing what happens on average is a good place to start. By so doing, we insulate ourselves from the tendency to build our…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/anonymous/and-knowing-what-happens-on-average-is-a-good-place-to-start-by-so/) [Anonymous](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/anonymous/) [Browse all 102 Anomalies quotes ](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/anomalies/) ```json { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@graph": [ { "@type": "Quotation", "text": "“The important point here is that with hindsight it is always possible to spot the most anomalous features of the data and build a favorable statistical analysis around them. 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