--- title: "Meaning & Key Takeaway of: I'm a historian. The act of predicting…" description: "\"I'm a historian. The act of predicting the future discomfits me, in any event - and the bigger the prediction, the more distrusting I am.\" — Rick Perls..." image: "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/7bd/rick-perlstein-3637_act_i-m-a-historian-the-act-of-predicting-th_504921.png" --- # I'm a historian. The act of predicting the future… ![“I'm a historian. The act of predicting the future discomfits me, in any event - and the bigger the prediction, the more distrusting I am.” quote by Rick Perlstein](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/7bd/rick-perlstein-3637_act_i-m-a-historian-the-act-of-predicting-th_504921.png) [Download](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/7bd/rick-perlstein-3637_act_i-m-a-historian-the-act-of-predicting-th_504921.png) [Open image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/7bd/rick-perlstein-3637_act_i-m-a-historian-the-act-of-predicting-th_504921.png) > “I'm a historian. The act of predicting the future discomfits me, in any event - and the bigger the prediction, the more distrusting I am.” [Rick Perlstein](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/rick-perlstein/) ## About This Quote This interpretation was drafted with AI assistance. It is one reading of the quote, not the author's own explanation. Predicting future events is uncomfortable; larger predictions increase skepticism **In simple terms:** Big forecasts feel unreliable and cause doubt Key Takeaway Question assumptions before forecasting Themes history uncertainty skepticism Mood cautious analytical Type academic reflective When to use this quote - Policy planning - investment decisions - academic research Key Concepts Historical analysis prediction bias Questions to Reflect On - What evidence supports your forecast? - How do you handle unexpected outcomes? A Different Perspective Over‑reliance on predictions can limit adaptability ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ No ratings yet [Act](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/act/) [Am](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/am/) [Any](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/any/) [Bigger](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/bigger/) [Bigger Prediction](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/bigger-prediction-4293077/) [Distrusting](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/distrusting-242276/) [Event](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/event/) [Future](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/future/) [Historian](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/historian/) [History](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/history/) [I am](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/i-am/) [Me](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/me/) [More](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/more/) [Predicting](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/predicting/) [Predicting Future](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/predicting-future-812617/) [Predicting the future](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/predicting-the-future/) [Prediction](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/prediction/) [Prediction Distrusting](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/prediction-distrusting-4293076/) [Time](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/time/) ## Related quotes > [Methods for predicting the future: 1) read horoscopes, tea leaves, tarot cards, or crystal balls . . . collectively known as "nutty methods;" 2)…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/scott-adams/methods-for-predicting-the-future-1-read-horoscopes-tea-leaves-tarot/) [Scott Adams](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/scott-adams/) > [I was not predicting the future, I was trying to prevent it.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-bradbury/i-was-not-predicting-the-future-i-was-trying-to-prevent-it/) [Ray Bradbury](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-bradbury/) > [People ask me to predict the future, when all I want to do is prevent it. Better yet, build it. Predicting the future is…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-bradbury/people-ask-me-to-predict-the-future-when-all-i-want-to-do-is-prevent-2/) [Ray Bradbury](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-bradbury/) > [I am incredibly bad at predicting the future; I am only smart enough to observe the present and listen to my intuition about tendencies.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/rem-koolhaas/i-am-incredibly-bad-at-predicting-the-future-i-am-only-smart-enough/) [Rem Koolhaas](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/rem-koolhaas/) > [I stopped predicting the future a long time ago.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/fred-durst/i-stopped-predicting-the-future-a-long-time-ago/) [Fred Durst](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/fred-durst/) > [Sometimes you have intuitive insight about how you think things are going to be, and you write that. Other times you fantasize completely, which…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-bradbury/sometimes-you-have-intuitive-insight-about-how-you-think-things-are/) [Ray Bradbury](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-bradbury/) > [“those who are very good at predicting the past will think of themselves as good at predicting the future,”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/those-who-are-very-good-at-predicting-the-past-will-think-of/) [Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nassim-nicholas-taleb/) > [Knowledge is telling the past. Wisdom is predicting the future.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/w-timothy-garvey/knowledge-is-telling-the-past-wisdom-is-predicting-the-future/) [W. Timothy Garvey](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/w-timothy-garvey/) > [“we are constantly predicting the future and hypothesizing what we will experience. This expectation influences what we actually perceive. Predicting the future is actually…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-kurzweil/we-are-constantly-predicting-the-future-and-hypothesizing-what-we/) [Ray Kurzweil](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-kurzweil/) > [“In other words, the “rigorously scientific” method of predicting the future can be applied only in special cases-where prompt action is not urgent, where…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/alan-w-watts/in-other-words-the-rigorously-scientific-method-of-predicting-the/) [Alan W. Watts](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/alan-w-watts/) > [Foresight is not about predicting the future, it's about minimizing surprise.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/karl-schroeder/foresight-is-not-about-predicting-the-future-it-s-about-minimizing/) [Karl Schroeder](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/karl-schroeder/) > [I won't say 'See you tomorrow' because that would be like predicting the future, and I'm pretty sure I can't do that.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ludwig-wittgenstein/i-won-t-say-see-you-tomorrow-because-that-would-be-like-predicting/) [Ludwig Wittgenstein](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ludwig-wittgenstein/) > [That's kind of like how jazz is sometimes. You're out there predicting the future, and no one believes you.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/branford-marsalis/that-s-kind-of-like-how-jazz-is-sometimes-you-re-out-there-predicting/) [Branford Marsalis](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/branford-marsalis/) > [I've become increasingly fascinated with social media to improve on traditional ways of preparing for and predicting the future.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/noreena-hertz/i-ve-become-increasingly-fascinated-with-social-media-to-improve-on/) [Noreena Hertz](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/noreena-hertz/) > [I think the randomness by Donald Trump's governing, by tweeting, sloganeering, attacking, will create great chaos in the entire market. I think people will…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/reid-hoffman/i-think-the-randomness-by-donald-trump-s-governing-by-tweeting/) [Reid Hoffman](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/reid-hoffman/) ## More by Rick Perlstein > [I love trade magazines - any trade's magazine: by entering into what is taken for granted in a world not your own, you better…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/rick-perlstein/i-love-trade-magazines-any-trade-s-magazine-by-entering-into-what-is/) [Rick Perlstein](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/rick-perlstein/) > [When the 2008 victory of Barack Obama and the defeat of grumpy old John McCain began looking, um, inevitable, I started fielding inquiries about…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/rick-perlstein/when-the-2008-victory-of-barack-obama-and-the-defeat-of-grumpy-old/) [Rick Perlstein](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/rick-perlstein/) > [Watergate got us to think of leaders as mere mortals. America began to think of itself in a very different way - I would…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/rick-perlstein/watergate-got-us-to-think-of-leaders-as-mere-mortals-america-began-to/) [Rick Perlstein](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/rick-perlstein/) > [Part of the fantasy certain pro-reform Republicans like to broadcast about Hispanics, family-oriented, churchgoing traditionalists, is that they are somehow natural conservatives, just waiting…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/rick-perlstein/part-of-the-fantasy-certain-pro-reform-republicans-like-to-broadcast/) [Rick Perlstein](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/rick-perlstein/) > [I'm just a Bolshevik with a laptop.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/rick-perlstein/i-m-just-a-bolshevik-with-a-laptop/) [Rick Perlstein](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/rick-perlstein/) > [The history of American higher education over the twentieth century is an extraordinary one, the story of the creation of a powerhouse set of…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/rick-perlstein/the-history-of-american-higher-education-over-the-twentieth-century/) [Rick Perlstein](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/rick-perlstein/) > [The only times during my religious instruction I remember hearing God's name invoked with any sincere conviction at all was in the oft-repeated and…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/rick-perlstein/the-only-times-during-my-religious-instruction-i-remember-hearing-god/) [Rick Perlstein](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/rick-perlstein/) > [As a general rule of thumb, Democrats do better in national elections when the year's defining issue is economic fairness, and Republicans do better…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/rick-perlstein/as-a-general-rule-of-thumb-democrats-do-better-in-national-elections/) [Rick Perlstein](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/rick-perlstein/) > [Computers have cut-and-paste functions. So does right-wing historical memory.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/rick-perlstein/computers-have-cut-and-paste-functions-so-does-right-wing-historical/) [Rick Perlstein](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/rick-perlstein/) > [Empirical debunking cannot reach the deepest fear of the reactionary mind, which is that the state - that devouring leviathan - will soon swallow…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/rick-perlstein/empirical-debunking-cannot-reach-the-deepest-fear-of-the-reactionary/) [Rick Perlstein](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/rick-perlstein/) > [I think that all politicians who aspire to the presidency are a little nuts, but for different reasons. What kind of person aspires to…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/rick-perlstein/i-think-that-all-politicians-who-aspire-to-the-presidency-are-a/) [Rick Perlstein](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/rick-perlstein/) > [Chicago's privatization mania began during Mayor Richard M. Daley's administration, which ran from 1989 to 2011. Under his successor, Rahm Emanuel, the trend has…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/rick-perlstein/chicago-s-privatization-mania-began-during-mayor-richard-m-daley-s/) [Rick Perlstein](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/rick-perlstein/) > [One thing Republicans understand: In American elections, you have to choose from among only two people - not between the perfect and the good.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/rick-perlstein/one-thing-republicans-understand-in-american-elections-you-have-to/) [Rick Perlstein](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/rick-perlstein/) > [Social conservatism, business conservatism: the one side constitutes the other, like some infernal Mobius strip.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/rick-perlstein/social-conservatism-business-conservatism-the-one-side-constitutes/) [Rick Perlstein](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/rick-perlstein/) > [Sometimes I like to think that the responsibility of every new generation of Democrats is to devise a program that mints new Democrats for…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/rick-perlstein/sometimes-i-like-to-think-that-the-responsibility-of-every-new/) [Rick Perlstein](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/rick-perlstein/) [Explore all 125 Rick Perlstein quotes ](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/rick-perlstein/) ## More Act quotes > [I once told someone I could act. They totally bought it. I've been getting away with it ever since.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/akshay-kumar/i-once-told-someone-i-could-act-they-totally-bought-it-i-ve-been/) [Akshay Kumar](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/akshay-kumar/) > [Teachers' unions don't act in the interest of most teachers.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/sal-khan/teachers-unions-don-t-act-in-the-interest-of-most-teachers/) [Sal Khan](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/sal-khan/) > [“I take my actions because of my passion not because of compulsion.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/amit-kalantri/i-take-my-actions-because-of-my-passion-not-because-of-compulsion/) [Amit Kalantri](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/amit-kalantri/) > [People take years learning how to act; it's a skill, not just a job. If I tried it out and thought I'd be OK,…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/travis-fimmel/people-take-years-learning-how-to-act-it-s-a-skill-not-just-a-job-if/) [Travis Fimmel](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/travis-fimmel/) > [Self-discipline is an act of cultivation. It require you to connect today's actions to tomorrow's results. There's a season for sowing a season for…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/gary-ryan-blair/self-discipline-is-an-act-of-cultivation-it-require-you-to-connect/) [Gary Ryan Blair](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/gary-ryan-blair/) > [“Don’t turn your face away. Once you’ve seen, you can no longer act like you don’t know. Open your eyes to the truth. It’s…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/vashti-quiroz-vega/don-t-turn-your-face-away-once-you-ve-seen-you-can-no-longer-act-like/) [Vashti Quiroz-Vega](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/vashti-quiroz-vega/) > [I always advise people not to act upon the advice that I give them.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/vikrant-parsai/i-always-advise-people-not-to-act-upon-the-advice-that-i-give-them/) [Vikrant Parsai](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/vikrant-parsai/) > [I have no interest in watching myself act.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/paul-wesley/i-have-no-interest-in-watching-myself-act/) [Paul Wesley](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/paul-wesley/) > [“Don't wait, just sweat.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/amit-kalantri/don-t-wait-just-sweat/) [Amit Kalantri](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/amit-kalantri/) > [I do believe some people can naturally act and don't know it.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/andrea-arnold/i-do-believe-some-people-can-naturally-act-and-don-t-know-it/) [Andrea Arnold](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/andrea-arnold/) > [Regardless of what I do, whether I write a book or whether I act or whether I host, I'll always do stand-up comedy because…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/howie-mandel/regardless-of-what-i-do-whether-i-write-a-book-or-whether-i-act-or/) [Howie Mandel](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/howie-mandel/) > [On 'Workaholics,' I feel like I'm just hanging out with my buddies being filmed, but on 'Mindy,' I'm around professional funny people who act.…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/anders-holm/on-workaholics-i-feel-like-i-m-just-hanging-out-with-my-buddies-being/) [Anders Holm](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/anders-holm/) > [I'm not an artist, and I want to take risks, and when the possibility of failure occurs, it's because the idea is all exciting…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/peter-morgan/i-m-not-an-artist-and-i-want-to-take-risks-and-when-the-possibility/) [Peter Morgan](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/peter-morgan/) > [I don't have a huge amount of gear, but on the software side, I have a number of plug-in chains that act as abstracted…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/jon-hopkins/i-don-t-have-a-huge-amount-of-gear-but-on-the-software-side-i-have-a/) [Jon Hopkins](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/jon-hopkins/) > [I honestly didn't know that I wanted to act until I was probably 12.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/miranda-rae-mayo/i-honestly-didn-t-know-that-i-wanted-to-act-until-i-was-probably-12/) [Miranda Rae Mayo](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/miranda-rae-mayo/) [Browse all 1,802 Act quotes ](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/act/) ```json { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@graph": [ { "@type": "Quotation", "text": "I'm a historian. The act of predicting the future discomfits me, in any event - and the bigger the prediction, the more distrusting I am.", "creator": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Rick Perlstein" }, "isPartOf": { "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/#website" }, "url": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/rick-perlstein/i-m-a-historian-the-act-of-predicting-the-future-discomfits-me-in-any/", "about": { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Act" }, "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/rick-perlstein/i-m-a-historian-the-act-of-predicting-the-future-discomfits-me-in-any/#quotation", "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/7bd/rick-perlstein-3637_act_i-m-a-historian-the-act-of-predicting-th_504921.png", "contentUrl": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/7bd/rick-perlstein-3637_act_i-m-a-historian-the-act-of-predicting-th_504921.png", "url": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/7bd/rick-perlstein-3637_act_i-m-a-historian-the-act-of-predicting-th_504921.png", "width": 1080, "height": 1080, "caption": "“I'm a historian. The act of predicting the future discomfits me, in any event - and the bigger the…” — Rick Perlstein", "creditText": "SMS4Smile Quotes", "creator": { "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/#organization" } } }, { "@type": "BreadcrumbList", "itemListElement": [ { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 1, "name": "Home", "item": "https://sms4smile.com/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 2, "name": "Quotes", "item": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 3, "name": "Rick Perlstein", "item": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/rick-perlstein/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 4, "name": "I'm a historian. The act of...", "item": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/rick-perlstein/i-m-a-historian-the-act-of-predicting-the-future-discomfits-me-in-any/" } ], "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/rick-perlstein/i-m-a-historian-the-act-of-predicting-the-future-discomfits-me-in-any/#breadcrumb" }, { "@type": "WebSite", "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/#website", "name": "SMS4Smile Quotes", "url": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/", "publisher": { "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/#organization" } }, { "@type": "Organization", "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/#organization", "name": "SMS4Smile Quotes", "url": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/", "logo": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/wp-content/themes/sq/assets/icons/icon-512.png", "width": 512, "height": 512 } } ] } ```