--- title: "Meaning & Key Takeaway of: When it comes to assessing the chances of…" description: "\"When it comes to assessing the chances of some complicated combination of events, gut feelings are pretty much useless.\" — Richard Thaler" image: "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/4cb/richard-thaler-3060_chances_when-it-comes-to-assessing-the-chances-o_2189676.png" --- # When it comes to assessing the chances of some complicated… ![“When it comes to assessing the chances of some complicated combination of events, gut feelings are pretty much useless.” quote by Richard Thaler](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/4cb/richard-thaler-3060_chances_when-it-comes-to-assessing-the-chances-o_2189676.png) [Download](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/4cb/richard-thaler-3060_chances_when-it-comes-to-assessing-the-chances-o_2189676.png) [Open image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/4cb/richard-thaler-3060_chances_when-it-comes-to-assessing-the-chances-o_2189676.png) > “When it comes to assessing the chances of some complicated combination of events, gut feelings are pretty much useless.” [Richard Thaler](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/richard-thaler/) ## About This Quote This interpretation was drafted with AI assistance. It is one reading of the quote, not the author's own explanation. Intuition is unreliable for complex probabilistic assessments; systematic analysis is required. **In simple terms:** Gut feelings fail for complex odds. Key Takeaway Rely on structured analysis for complex decisions. Themes decision making probability behavioral economics Mood analytical pragmatic Type educational inspirational When to use this quote - investment decisions - policy design - risk assessment - project planning Key Concepts cognitive bias statistical reasoning complex systems Questions to Reflect On - When should you trust intuition over analysis? - How can you improve analytical accuracy? A Different Perspective Analysis can be time‑consuming and may still be imperfect. ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ No ratings yet [Chances](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/chances/) [Chances Complicated](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/chances-complicated-482535/) [Complicated](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/complicated/) [Events](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/events/) [Feelings](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/feelings/) [Gut feelings](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/gut-feelings/) [Instinct](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/instinct/) [Pretty Useless](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/pretty-useless-3246540/) [Useless](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/useless/) ## Related quotes > [Most of those mocking us and our works night after night have not reached the point of suggesting we are going to use those…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/richard-reeves/most-of-those-mocking-us-and-our-works-night-after-night-have-not/) [Richard Reeves](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/richard-reeves/) > [A lot of multinationals have long, drawn-out processes and are pretty useless at putting products on the shelves quickly.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/theo-paphitis/a-lot-of-multinationals-have-long-drawn-out-processes-and-are-pretty/) [Theo Paphitis](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/theo-paphitis/) > [Tell me it's forbidden, unthinkable, and that's where I want to go. 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Don't be someone's…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/anonymous/when-your-gut-feelings-tell-you-something-listen-to-it-because-9/) [Anonymous](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/anonymous/) > [“Sometimes you just have to trust your instincts; it may be all you have to trust.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/jocelyn-murray/sometimes-you-just-have-to-trust-your-instincts-it-may-be-all-you/) [Jocelyn Murray](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/jocelyn-murray/) > [It is a law of nature we overlook, that intellectual versatility is the compensation for change, danger, and trouble. An animal perfectly in harmony…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/anonymous/it-is-a-law-of-nature-we-overlook-that-intellectual-versatility-is/) [Anonymous](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/anonymous/) > [My wife loves cars, but the difference is she doesn't have 20 years of understanding the background of them. 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They have strong gut feelings about what is right and wrong,…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/jonathan-haidt/you-can-see-the-rider-serving-the-elephant-when-people-are-morally/) [Jonathan Haidt](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/jonathan-haidt/) > [“The combination of the Main brain with its central nervous system, and the ancient Animal Brain with its somatic, enteric nervous system in the…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/martha-char-love/the-combination-of-the-main-brain-with-its-central-nervous-system-and/) [Martha Char Love](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/martha-char-love/) ## More by Richard Thaler > [The Nobel Prize is going to be 'fun money' - for an occasion, when my wife and I want a $50 bottle of wine.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/richard-thaler/the-nobel-prize-is-going-to-be-fun-money-for-an-occasion-when-my-wife/) [Richard Thaler](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/richard-thaler/) > [In some ways, the finding that financial education doesn't provide long-term payoffs is hardly surprising. After all, how much do you remember from your…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/richard-thaler/in-some-ways-the-finding-that-financial-education-doesn-t-provide/) [Richard Thaler](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/richard-thaler/) > [Fortunately, economists open to new ways of thinking are finding novel ways to use supposedly irrelevant factors to make the world a better place.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/richard-thaler/fortunately-economists-open-to-new-ways-of-thinking-are-finding-novel/) [Richard Thaler](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/richard-thaler/) > [If people just put away what's left at the end of the month, that's a recipe for failure.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/richard-thaler/if-people-just-put-away-what-s-left-at-the-end-of-the-month-that-s-a/) [Richard Thaler](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/richard-thaler/) > [The wealth in many large estates has never been taxed because it is largely in the form of unrealized - therefore untaxed - capital…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/richard-thaler/the-wealth-in-many-large-estates-has-never-been-taxed-because-it-is/) [Richard Thaler](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/richard-thaler/) > [The lesson of my field, behavioral economics, is that we need to understand the ways in which we differ from the rational human assumed…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/richard-thaler/the-lesson-of-my-field-behavioral-economics-is-that-we-need-to/) [Richard Thaler](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/richard-thaler/) > [I think behavioral economists don't have any more of an explanation about the rise of Trump than anyone else.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/richard-thaler/i-think-behavioral-economists-don-t-have-any-more-of-an-explanation/) [Richard Thaler](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/richard-thaler/) > [There are cases when I can make myself better off by restricting my future choices and commit myself to a specific course of action.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/richard-thaler/there-are-cases-when-i-can-make-myself-better-off-by-restricting-my/) [Richard Thaler](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/richard-thaler/) > [For amateur golfers, I think one of the biggest mistakes is to model their play on professionals.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/richard-thaler/for-amateur-golfers-i-think-one-of-the-biggest-mistakes-is-to-model/) [Richard Thaler](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/richard-thaler/) > [he card companies will often, as a courtesy, honor that credit card, but hit you with a penalty. And you keep swiping your card…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/richard-thaler/he-card-companies-will-often-as-a-courtesy-honor-that-credit-card-but/) [Richard Thaler](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/richard-thaler/) > [We all need a lot of humility, and especially about the economy.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/richard-thaler/we-all-need-a-lot-of-humility-and-especially-about-the-economy/) [Richard Thaler](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/richard-thaler/) > [Social Security may be the most beloved of all the government's programs, partly because it requires so little thinking. You pay taxes while you…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/richard-thaler/social-security-may-be-the-most-beloved-of-all-the-government-s/) [Richard Thaler](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/richard-thaler/) > [If you're trading individual securities, you're almost certainly making a mistake. Because most professional managers can't outperform their benchmarks, and there's little reason to…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/richard-thaler/if-you-re-trading-individual-securities-you-re-almost-certainly/) [Richard Thaler](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/richard-thaler/) > [A nudge is some feature of the environment that changes the behaviour of humans but would not change the behaviour of rational economic agents,…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/richard-thaler/a-nudge-is-some-feature-of-the-environment-that-changes-the-behaviour/) [Richard Thaler](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/richard-thaler/) > [One reason for high health care costs is that patients fail to follow their treatment regimen.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/richard-thaler/one-reason-for-high-health-care-costs-is-that-patients-fail-to-follow/) [Richard Thaler](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/richard-thaler/) [Explore all 141 Richard Thaler quotes ](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/richard-thaler/) ## More Chances quotes > [“It seemed to him that the little Manchu had never looked so radiant. She gave him a most charming smile, but her eyes were…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/james-hilton/it-seemed-to-him-that-the-little-manchu-had-never-looked-so-radiant/) [James Hilton](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/james-hilton/) > [To be successful, one must take chances.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/willie-stargell/to-be-successful-one-must-take-chances/) [Willie Stargell](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/willie-stargell/) > [The state of radio is not great. It's like playing the lottery. The chances of hitting are mind boggling slim.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/teddy-thompson/the-state-of-radio-is-not-great-it-s-like-playing-the-lottery-the/) [Teddy Thompson](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/teddy-thompson/) > [If you scared to take chances, you'll never have the answers...](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nas/if-you-scared-to-take-chances-you-ll-never-have-the-answers/) [Nas](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nas/) > [We seal our fate with the choices we take, but don't give a second thought to the chances we take.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/gloria-estefan/we-seal-our-fate-with-the-choices-we-take-but-don-t-give-a-second/) [Gloria Estefan](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/gloria-estefan/) > [Very unfair because you provided a few times chances with him because he was able to bullshit. Then you made a mistake, just once,…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/meicee29/very-unfair-because-you-provided-a-few-times-chances-with-him-because/) [Meicee29](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/meicee29/) > [I'm the one who will take chances, not worry about the backlash.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/magic-johnson/i-m-the-one-who-will-take-chances-not-worry-about-the-backlash/) [Magic Johnson](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/magic-johnson/) > [Life is full of chances -- and those times when we each trust our own guts and have a terrific outcome reaffirms our ability…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/victoria-laurie/life-is-full-of-chances-and-those-times-when-we-each-trust-our-own/) [Victoria Laurie](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/victoria-laurie/) > [If you give your Self a chance, your Self will give you all the chances.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/harbhajan-singh-yogi/if-you-give-your-self-a-chance-your-self-will-give-you-all-the-chances/) [Harbhajan Singh Yogi](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/harbhajan-singh-yogi/) > [What's frustrating to me is when, on a low-budget movie, people don't take chances. A big-budget movie, that script's your bible; nobody's going to…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/lance-henriksen/what-s-frustrating-to-me-is-when-on-a-low-budget-movie-people-don-t/) [Lance Henriksen](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/lance-henriksen/) > [I don't think anyone went the polls and said, 'I am casting my vote to make sure that Wall Street has better chances to…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/elizabeth-warren/i-don-t-think-anyone-went-the-polls-and-said-i-am-casting-my-vote-to/) [Elizabeth Warren](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/elizabeth-warren/) > [The most successful people in this world recognize that taking chances to get what they want is much more productive than sitting around being…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/steve-harvey/the-most-successful-people-in-this-world-recognize-that-taking/) [Steve Harvey](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/steve-harvey/) > [Don't waste your time giving the same person second chances, the perfect person could be out there waiting for a first chance.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/anonymous/don-t-waste-your-time-giving-the-same-person-second-chances-the/) [Anonymous](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/anonymous/) > [Before you give up ask yourself if you've given it ALL you've got because chances are you haven't](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/sonya-parker/before-you-give-up-ask-yourself-if-you-ve-given-it-all-you-ve-got/) [Sonya Parker](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/sonya-parker/) > [Dare to take chances, lest you leave your talent buried in the ground.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/phil-knight/dare-to-take-chances-lest-you-leave-your-talent-buried-in-the-ground/) [Phil Knight](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/phil-knight/) [Browse all 1,023 Chances quotes ](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/chances/) ```json { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@graph": [ { "@type": "Quotation", "text": "When it comes to assessing the chances of some complicated combination of events, gut feelings are pretty much useless.", "creator": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Richard Thaler" }, "isPartOf": { "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/#website" }, "url": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/richard-thaler/when-it-comes-to-assessing-the-chances-of-some-complicated/", "about": { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Chances" }, "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/richard-thaler/when-it-comes-to-assessing-the-chances-of-some-complicated/#quotation", "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/4cb/richard-thaler-3060_chances_when-it-comes-to-assessing-the-chances-o_2189676.png", "contentUrl": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/4cb/richard-thaler-3060_chances_when-it-comes-to-assessing-the-chances-o_2189676.png", "url": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/4cb/richard-thaler-3060_chances_when-it-comes-to-assessing-the-chances-o_2189676.png", "width": 1080, "height": 1080, "caption": "“When it comes to assessing the chances of some complicated combination of events, gut feelings are pretty…” — Richard Thaler", "creditText": "SMS4Smile Quotes", "creator": { "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/#organization" } } }, { "@type": "BreadcrumbList", "itemListElement": [ { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 1, "name": "Home", "item": "https://sms4smile.com/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 2, "name": "Quotes", "item": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 3, "name": "Richard Thaler", "item": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/richard-thaler/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 4, "name": "When it comes to assessing the...", "item": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/richard-thaler/when-it-comes-to-assessing-the-chances-of-some-complicated/" } ], "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/richard-thaler/when-it-comes-to-assessing-the-chances-of-some-complicated/#breadcrumb" }, { "@type": "WebSite", "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/#website", "name": "SMS4Smile Quotes", "url": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/", "publisher": { "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/#organization" } }, { "@type": "Organization", "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/#organization", "name": "SMS4Smile Quotes", "url": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/", "logo": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/wp-content/themes/sq/assets/icons/icon-512.png", "width": 512, "height": 512 } } ] } ```