--- title: "Meaning & Key Takeaway of: Technological revolutions are very hard…" description: "\"Technological revolutions are very hard to predict. My favourite example is someone in 1850 taking care of horses as a farrier. They would have said, \"..." image: "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/952/reed-hastings-10304_automobile_technological-revolutions-are-very-hard_2431476.png" --- # Technological revolutions are very hard to predict. My… ![“Technological revolutions are very hard to predict. My favourite example is someone in 1850 taking care of horses as a farrier. They would have said, "Look, horses have been part of human existence for 5,000 years. We are horse people. It's permanent." But all of a sudden, the internal combustion…” quote by Reed Hastings](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/952/reed-hastings-10304_automobile_technological-revolutions-are-very-hard_2431476.png) [Download](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/952/reed-hastings-10304_automobile_technological-revolutions-are-very-hard_2431476.png) [Open image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/952/reed-hastings-10304_automobile_technological-revolutions-are-very-hard_2431476.png) > “Technological revolutions are very hard to predict. My favourite example is someone in 1850 taking care of horses as a farrier. They would have said, "Look, horses have been part of human existence for 5,000 years. We are horse people. It's permanent." But all of a sudden, the internal combustion engine comes along and, with it, oil fields and automobiles, which basically replace the horse completely. So we often have these long periods of stability and then a sudden inflection point.” [Reed Hastings](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/reed-hastings/) ## About This Quote This interpretation was drafted with AI assistance. It is one reading of the quote, not the author's own explanation. Technological shifts often appear sudden after long stability, as exemplified by the transition from horses to internal combustion engines, making predictions difficult. **In simple terms:** Predicting tech change is hard because breakthroughs can be abrupt. Key Takeaway Expect surprise inflection points. Themes technology prediction disruption history innovation Mood cautious forward‑looking analytical Type forecast historical strategic When to use this quote - investing in new tech - policy planning - career shifts - education curricula Key Concepts disruptive cycles economic impact future studies Questions to Reflect On - What indicators hint at upcoming tech shifts? - How can societies adapt to sudden disruptions? A Different Perspective Past trends may not fully capture future complexities. ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ No ratings yet [Automobile](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/automobile/) [Care](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/care/) [Existence](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/existence/) [Horse](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/horse/) [Human existence](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/human-existence/) [Humans](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/humans/) [Oil field](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/oil-field/) [People](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/people/) [Revolution](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/revolution/) [Revolutions](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/revolutions/) [Stability](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/stability/) [Technology](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/technology/) ## Related quotes > [During my eighty-seven years I have witnessed a whole succession of technological revolutions. But none of them has done away with the need for…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/bernard-baruch/during-my-eighty-seven-years-i-have-witnessed-a-whole-succession-of/) [Bernard Baruch](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/bernard-baruch/) > [I don't. We've had three technological revolutions that have changed the course of human history, all driven by physics. In the first, the industrial…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/michio-kaku/i-don-t-we-ve-had-three-technological-revolutions-that-have-changed/) [Michio Kaku](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/michio-kaku/) > [Technological 'revolutions' don't really overthrow anything - they simply append a new and dynamic market to that which went before.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nathan-myhrvold/technological-revolutions-don-t-really-overthrow-anything-they-simply/) [Nathan Myhrvold](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nathan-myhrvold/) > [Industrialisation, mass transit, and the Internet are technological revolutions that have reshaped lives, nations, and the planet.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/mark-walport/industrialisation-mass-transit-and-the-internet-are-technological/) [Mark Walport](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/mark-walport/) > [The same people own the media that own the White House that own the Congress that own the oil fields. They all work together…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/gore-vidal/the-same-people-own-the-media-that-own-the-white-house-that-own-the/) [Gore Vidal](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/gore-vidal/) > [All of Iraq's oil fields are under U.S. control which is ironic considering all the gas stations here are run by Middle Easterners.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/jay-leno/all-of-iraq-s-oil-fields-are-under-u-s-control-which-is-ironic/) [Jay Leno](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/jay-leno/) > [If I were investing in oil and gas stocks, there is one question I would ask CEO's: What portion of your capital is going…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/gwyn-morgan/if-i-were-investing-in-oil-and-gas-stocks-there-is-one-question-i/) Gwyn Morgan > [We must surely appear to the world as exactly what we are: a nation that organizes its economy around consuming twice as much oil…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/barbara-kingsolver/we-must-surely-appear-to-the-world-as-exactly-what-we-are-a-nation/) [Barbara Kingsolver](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/barbara-kingsolver/) > [“Vietnam is still, as it was thirty years ago, a poor country of rice paddy farms and sandy harbors, where fishermen cast nets from…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/susan-o-neill/vietnam-is-still-as-it-was-thirty-years-ago-a-poor-country-of-rice/) Susan O'Neill > [The wealthiest places in the world are not gold mines, oil fields, diamond mines or banks. The wealthiest place is the cemetery. There lies…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/myles-munroe/the-wealthiest-places-in-the-world-are-not-gold-mines-oil-fields/) [Myles Munroe](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/myles-munroe/) > [We tie ourselves in knots when we act as if democracy is good for the United States and Israel but not for the Arab…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nicholas-d-kristof/we-tie-ourselves-in-knots-when-we-act-as-if-democracy-is-good-for-the/) [Nicholas D. Kristof](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nicholas-d-kristof/) > [Which European leader today would not relish the wonder-working powers of a Moses? Budget deficit? Unpopular cuts? How about just a little miracle, an…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/jonathan-sacks/which-european-leader-today-would-not-relish-the-wonder-working/) [Jonathan Sacks](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/jonathan-sacks/) > [You oil field workers, come and listen to me I'm goin' to tell you a story about old John D. That company union made…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/woody-guthrie/you-oil-field-workers-come-and-listen-to-me-i-m-goin-to-tell-you-a/) [Woody Guthrie](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/woody-guthrie/) > [It's important to Russia to be able to attract capital and to attract technology to develop their oil fields, their oil and gas fields,…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/condoleezza-rice/it-s-important-to-russia-to-be-able-to-attract-capital-and-to-attract/) [Condoleezza Rice](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/condoleezza-rice/) > [This curious faith is predicated on the notion that we will soon develop unlimited new sources of energy: domestic oil fields, shale oil, gasified…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/wendell-berry/this-curious-faith-is-predicated-on-the-notion-that-we-will-soon/) [Wendell Berry](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/wendell-berry/) ## More by Reed Hastings > [My first company, Pure Software, was exciting and innovative in the first few years and bureaucratic and painful in the last few before it…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/reed-hastings/my-first-company-pure-software-was-exciting-and-innovative-in-the/) [Reed Hastings](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/reed-hastings/) > [School districts in the US don't adopt technology very quickly.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/reed-hastings/school-districts-in-the-us-don-t-adopt-technology-very-quickly/) [Reed Hastings](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/reed-hastings/) > [Something will eventually replace the Internet. But it's hard to know what and when it will happen.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/reed-hastings/something-will-eventually-replace-the-internet-but-it-s-hard-to-know/) [Reed Hastings](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/reed-hastings/) > [The Costa Rican government is prioritizing laying fiber optic over paving roads. Costa Rica is trying to become one of the Internet societies. This…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/reed-hastings/the-costa-rican-government-is-prioritizing-laying-fiber-optic-over/) [Reed Hastings](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/reed-hastings/) > [Comparing Apple to Netflix is like comparing apples to oranges, especially if the oranges made so many mistakes that people stopped eating oranges and…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/reed-hastings/comparing-apple-to-netflix-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/) [Reed Hastings](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/reed-hastings/) > [I don't know of any Internet service that opens on a regional basis.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/reed-hastings/i-don-t-know-of-any-internet-service-that-opens-on-a-regional-basis/) [Reed Hastings](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/reed-hastings/) > [So much of the downstream revenue is linked to that initial excitement, to how much revenue is produced in the domestic box office. For…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/reed-hastings/so-much-of-the-downstream-revenue-is-linked-to-that-initial/) [Reed Hastings](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/reed-hastings/) > [We are seeing the beginning of things. Web 2.0 is broadband. Web 3.0 is 10 gigabits a second.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/reed-hastings/we-are-seeing-the-beginning-of-things-web-2-0-is-broadband-web-3-0-is/) [Reed Hastings](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/reed-hastings/) > [Great leaders, like Steve Jobs or Jeff Bezos, also focused on the long term.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/reed-hastings/great-leaders-like-steve-jobs-or-jeff-bezos-also-focused-on-the-long/) [Reed Hastings](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/reed-hastings/) > [Do not tolerate brilliant jerks. The cost to teamwork is too high.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/reed-hastings/do-not-tolerate-brilliant-jerks-the-cost-to-teamwork-is-too-high/) [Reed Hastings](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/reed-hastings/) > [Stone Age. Bronze Age. Iron Age. We define entire epics of humanity by the technology they use.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/reed-hastings/stone-age-bronze-age-iron-age-we-define-entire-epics-of-humanity-by/) [Reed Hastings](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/reed-hastings/) > [I think there will be 20 years of evolution from linear broadcast to internet television.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/reed-hastings/i-think-there-will-be-20-years-of-evolution-from-linear-broadcast-to/) [Reed Hastings](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/reed-hastings/) > [Tomorrow when you come to work, if it doesn't make the customer happy, move the business forward, and save us money - don't do…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/reed-hastings/tomorrow-when-you-come-to-work-if-it-doesn-t-make-the-customer-happy/) [Reed Hastings](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/reed-hastings/) > [As an entrepreneur you have to feel like you can jump out of an aeroplane because you're confident that you'll catch a bird flying…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/reed-hastings/as-an-entrepreneur-you-have-to-feel-like-you-can-jump-out-of-an/) [Reed Hastings](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/reed-hastings/) > [I'm on the Facebook board now. Little did they know that I thought Facebook was really stupid when I first heard about it back…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/reed-hastings/i-m-on-the-facebook-board-now-little-did-they-know-that-i-thought/) [Reed Hastings](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/reed-hastings/) [Explore all 66 Reed Hastings quotes ](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/reed-hastings/) ## More Automobile quotes > [“A car is one of the most interesting inventions, but driving is one of the most boring activities.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/mokokoma-mokhonoana/a-car-is-one-of-the-most-interesting-inventions-but-driving-is-one-of/) [Mokokoma Mokhonoana](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/mokokoma-mokhonoana/) > [So the poet, who wants to be something that he cannot be, and is a failure in plain life, makes up fictitious versions of…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/allen-tate/so-the-poet-who-wants-to-be-something-that-he-cannot-be-and-is-a/) [Allen Tate](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/allen-tate/) > [Having spent years ruining the housing markets with their interference, leading to a housing meltdown that has taken the whole economy down with it,…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/thomas-sowell/having-spent-years-ruining-the-housing-markets-with-their/) [Thomas Sowell](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/thomas-sowell/) > [There comes a day of public ceremonial, and a chance to make a speech… A million voters with IQs below 60 have their ears…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/h-l-mencken/there-comes-a-day-of-public-ceremonial-and-a-chance-to-make-a-speech/) [H. 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