--- title: "Meaning & Key Takeaway of: The prediction that the Singularity—an…" description: "\"“The prediction that the Singularity—an expansion of human intelligence by a factor of trillions through merger with its nonbiological form—will occur ..." image: "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/0e9/ray-kurzweil-3529_fifteen-years_the-prediction-that-the-singularity-an-e_1704953.jpg" --- # The prediction that the Singularity—an expansion of human… ![“The prediction that the Singularity—an expansion of human intelligence by a factor of trillions through merger with its nonbiological form—will occur within the next several decades does not depend on the precision of these calculations. Even if our estimate of the amount of computation required…” quote by Ray Kurzweil](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/0e9/ray-kurzweil-3529_fifteen-years_the-prediction-that-the-singularity-an-e_1704953.jpg) [Download](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/0e9/ray-kurzweil-3529_fifteen-years_the-prediction-that-the-singularity-an-e_1704953.jpg) [Open image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/0e9/ray-kurzweil-3529_fifteen-years_the-prediction-that-the-singularity-an-e_1704953.jpg) > ““The prediction that the Singularity—an expansion of human intelligence by a factor of trillions through merger with its nonbiological form—will occur within the next several decades does not depend on the precision of these calculations. Even if our estimate of the amount of computation required to simulate the human brain was too optimistic (that is, too low) by a factor of even one thousand (which I believe is unlikely), that would delay the Singularity by only about eight years.34 A factor of one million would mean a delay of only about fifteen years, and a factor of one billion would be a delay of about twenty-one years.”” [Ray Kurzweil](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-kurzweil/) ## About This Quote This interpretation was drafted with AI assistance. It is one reading of the quote, not the author's own explanation. Even massive underestimates of required computation only shift the timeline of the Singularity by a few years, showing its inevitability. **In simple terms:** Even huge errors barely delay the Singularity. Key Takeaway Recognize the robustness of the Singularity timeline. Themes technology future computing singularity prediction Mood optimistic forward-looking Type philosophical inspirational When to use this quote - AI development - policy planning - investment decisions Key Concepts exponential growth computational limits Questions to Reflect On - How should we prepare for a timeline that’s resilient to errors? - What risks arise if we underestimate computational needs? A Different Perspective Assuming precise calculations are needed may overstate uncertainty. ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ No ratings yet [Delay Singularity](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/delay-singularity-1188264/) [Fifteen years](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/fifteen-years/) [Human brain](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/human-brain/) [Human intelligence](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/human-intelligence/) [Prediction Singularity](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/prediction-singularity-1188265/) [Singularity](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/singularity/) [Singularity Expansion](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/singularity-expansion-1188266/) [Singularity Years](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/singularity-years-1188263/) [Technology](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/technology/) ## Related quotes > [Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to The Singularity -- technological change so rapid and profound it represents a…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-kurzweil/within-a-few-decades-machine-intelligence-will-surpass-human/) [Ray Kurzweil](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-kurzweil/) > [Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/vernor-vinge/within-thirty-years-we-will-have-the-technological-means-to-create/) [Vernor Vinge](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/vernor-vinge/) > [ “When General Genius built the first mentar \[Artificial Intelligence\] mind in the last half of the twenty-first century, it based its design on the… ](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/david-marusek/when-general-genius-built-the-first-mentar-artificial-intelligence/) [David Marusek](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/david-marusek/) > [“The key idea underlying the impending Singularity is that the pace of change of our human-created technology is accelerating and its powers are expanding…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-kurzweil/the-key-idea-underlying-the-impending-singularity-is-that-the-pace-of/) [Ray Kurzweil](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-kurzweil/) > [Emotional intelligence is what humans are good at and that's not a sideshow. That's the cutting edge of human intelligence.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-kurzweil/emotional-intelligence-is-what-humans-are-good-at-and-that-s-not-a/) [Ray Kurzweil](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-kurzweil/) > [ \[In\] 2029, I think, computers will match and exceed human intelligence in the ways we're now superior, like being funny, where we still have… ](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-kurzweil/in-2029-i-think-computers-will-match-and-exceed-human-intelligence-in/) [Ray Kurzweil](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-kurzweil/) > [The Singularity denotes an event that will take place in the material world, the inevitable next step in the evolutionary process that started with…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-kurzweil/the-singularity-denotes-an-event-that-will-take-place-in-the-material/) [Ray Kurzweil](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-kurzweil/) > [By the time of the Singularity, there won't be a distinction between humans and technology. This is not because humans will have become what…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-kurzweil/by-the-time-of-the-singularity-there-won-t-be-a-distinction-between/) [Ray Kurzweil](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-kurzweil/) > [A Singularitarian is someone who understands the Singularity and has reflected on its meaning for his or her own life.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-kurzweil/a-singularitarian-is-someone-who-understands-the-singularity-and-has/) [Ray Kurzweil](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-kurzweil/) > [By the time we get to the 2040s, we'll be able to multiply human intelligence a billionfold. That will be a profound change that's…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-kurzweil/by-the-time-we-get-to-the-2040s-we-ll-be-able-to-multiply-human/) [Ray Kurzweil](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-kurzweil/) > [“The Agnostic is one who asserts 'what no one denies' that there are limits to the sphere of human intelligence.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/leslie-stephen/the-agnostic-is-one-who-asserts-what-no-one-denies-that-there-are/) [Leslie Stephen](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/leslie-stephen/) > [The techniques of artificial intelligence are to the mind what bureaucracy is to human social interaction.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/terry-winograd/the-techniques-of-artificial-intelligence-are-to-the-mind-what/) [Terry Winograd](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/terry-winograd/) > [LAOCOON, n. A famous piece of antique scripture representing a priest of that name and his two sons in the folds of two enormous…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ambrose-bierce/laocoon-n-a-famous-piece-of-antique-scripture-representing-a-priest/) [Ambrose Bierce](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ambrose-bierce/) > [“...genius, having the widest experience of the human intelligence, can best understand the ideas most directly in opposition to those which form the foundation…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/marcel-proust/genius-having-the-widest-experience-of-the-human-intelligence-can/) [Marcel Proust](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/marcel-proust/) > [It is impossible to underrate human intelligence - beginning with one's own.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/anonymous/it-is-impossible-to-underrate-human-intelligence-beginning-with-one-s/) [Anonymous](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/anonymous/) ## More by Ray Kurzweil > [We are beginning to see intimations of this in the implantation of computer devices into the human body.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-kurzweil/we-are-beginning-to-see-intimations-of-this-in-the-implantation-of/) [Ray Kurzweil](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-kurzweil/) > [The telephone is virtual reality in that you can meet with someone as if you are together, at least for the auditory sense.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-kurzweil/the-telephone-is-virtual-reality-in-that-you-can-meet-with-someone-as/) [Ray Kurzweil](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-kurzweil/) > [By 2010 computers will disappear. They'll be so small, they'll be embedded in our clothing, in our environment. Images will be written directly to…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-kurzweil/by-2010-computers-will-disappear-they-ll-be-so-small-they-ll-be/) [Ray Kurzweil](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-kurzweil/) > [All different forms of human expression, art, science, are going to become expanded, by expanding our intelligence.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-kurzweil/all-different-forms-of-human-expression-art-science-are-going-to/) [Ray Kurzweil](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-kurzweil/) > [Doing real world projects is, I think, the best way to learn and also to engage the world and find out what the world…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-kurzweil/doing-real-world-projects-is-i-think-the-best-way-to-learn-and-also/) [Ray Kurzweil](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-kurzweil/) > [Take death for example. A great deal of our effort goes into avoiding it. We make extraordinary efforts to delay it, and often consider…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-kurzweil/take-death-for-example-a-great-deal-of-our-effort-goes-into-avoiding/) [Ray Kurzweil](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-kurzweil/) > [By the time we get to the 2040s, we'll be able to multiply human intelligence a billionfold. That will be a profound change that's…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-kurzweil/by-the-time-we-get-to-the-2040s-we-ll-be-able-to-multiply-human/) [Ray Kurzweil](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-kurzweil/) > [We're democratizing the tools of creativity.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-kurzweil/we-re-democratizing-the-tools-of-creativity/) [Ray Kurzweil](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-kurzweil/) > [A Singularitarian is someone who understands the Singularity and has reflected on its meaning for his or her own life.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-kurzweil/a-singularitarian-is-someone-who-understands-the-singularity-and-has/) [Ray Kurzweil](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-kurzweil/) > [A lot of movies about artificial intelligence envision that AIs will be very intelligent but missing some key emotional qualities of humans and therefore…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-kurzweil/a-lot-of-movies-about-artificial-intelligence-envision-that-ais-will/) [Ray Kurzweil](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-kurzweil/) > [The key issue as to whether or not a non-biological entity deserves rights really comes down to whether or not it's conscious… Does it…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-kurzweil/the-key-issue-as-to-whether-or-not-a-non-biological-entity-deserves/) [Ray Kurzweil](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-kurzweil/) > [We'll be able to have very intelligent, little robots with computers going inside our bloodstream, keeping us healthy from inside, destroying cancer at the…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-kurzweil/we-ll-be-able-to-have-very-intelligent-little-robots-with-computers/) [Ray Kurzweil](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-kurzweil/) > [The ethical debates are like stones in a stream. The water runs around them. You haven't seen any biological technologies held up for one…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-kurzweil/the-ethical-debates-are-like-stones-in-a-stream-the-water-runs-around/) [Ray Kurzweil](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-kurzweil/) > [By the end of this decade, computers will disappear as distinct physical objects, with displays built in our eyeglasses, and electronics woven in our…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-kurzweil/by-the-end-of-this-decade-computers-will-disappear-as-distinct/) [Ray Kurzweil](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-kurzweil/) > [As you go out to the 2040s, now the bulk of our thinking is out in the cloud. The biological portion of our brain…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-kurzweil/as-you-go-out-to-the-2040s-now-the-bulk-of-our-thinking-is-out-in-the/) [Ray Kurzweil](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-kurzweil/) [Explore all 127 Ray Kurzweil quotes ](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-kurzweil/) ## More Fifteen years quotes > [A statesman is a politician who has been dead ten or fifteen years](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/harry-s-truman-2/a-statesman-is-a-politician-who-has-been-dead-ten-or-fifteen-years/) [Harry S Truman](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/harry-s-truman-2/) > [“That was fifteen years ago. Fifteen Valentine's Days.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/jerry-spinelli/that-was-fifteen-years-ago-fifteen-valentine-s-days/) [Jerry Spinelli](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/jerry-spinelli/) > [“Near home I ran through our park, where I had aired my children on weekends and late-summer afternoons. I stopped at the northeast playground,…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/grace-paley/near-home-i-ran-through-our-park-where-i-had-aired-my-children-on/) [Grace Paley](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/grace-paley/) > [It took me fifteen years to discover I had no talent for writing, but I couldn't give it up because by that time I…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/robert-benchley/it-took-me-fifteen-years-to-discover-i-had-no-talent-for-writing-but/) [Robert Benchley](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/robert-benchley/) > [Fifteen years after the September 11 terrorist attacks, the United States government still has little idea how many foreign travelers overstay their visas annually…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/mark-meadows/fifteen-years-after-the-september-11-terrorist-attacks-the-united/) [Mark Meadows](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/mark-meadows/) > [We are shut up in school and college recitation rooms for ten to fifteen years, and come out at last with a bellyful of…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ralph-waldo-emerson/we-are-shut-up-in-school-and-college-recitation-rooms-for-ten-to/) [Ralph Waldo Emerson](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ralph-waldo-emerson/) > [“She was fifteen years younger than Paul, a point his other retired cop friends kidded him about mercilessly.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/russell-james/she-was-fifteen-years-younger-than-paul-a-point-his-other-retired-cop/) [Russell James](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/russell-james/) > [I have an IQ of about 160, I taught science for about fifteen years.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/kent-hovind/i-have-an-iq-of-about-160-i-taught-science-for-about-fifteen-years/) [Kent Hovind](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/kent-hovind/) > [Dan Brister's book bears witness to the last fifteen years of this bureaucratic madness to tame the last vestige of wild America and domesticate…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/doug-peacock/dan-brister-s-book-bears-witness-to-the-last-fifteen-years-of-this/) [Doug Peacock](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/doug-peacock/) > [“We've had fifteen years of being grown-ups when we could have got together and we never have. Doesn't that tell you something?' 'Yeah, that…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/karina-bliss/we-ve-had-fifteen-years-of-being-grown-ups-when-we-could-have-got/) [Karina Bliss](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/karina-bliss/) > [Well, when I was fifteen years old I worked in a lingerie store and that's how I feel in love with vintage lingerie because…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/dita-von-teese/well-when-i-was-fifteen-years-old-i-worked-in-a-lingerie-store-and/) [Dita Von Teese](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/dita-von-teese/) > [Old age is fifteen years older than I am.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/anonymous/old-age-is-fifteen-years-older-than-i-am/) [Anonymous](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/anonymous/) > [“Let’s take a quick look at what a psychopath is. Although the American Psychiatric Association (APA) no longer uses this term, much of the…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/robert-kirkconnell/let-s-take-a-quick-look-at-what-a-psychopath-is-although-the-american/) [Robert Kirkconnell](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/robert-kirkconnell/) > [“Tell me about the war,” he pressed cautiously. She smiled again and began, “Well . . .” The sentence ended there. Her tongue moved…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/boris-fishman/tell-me-about-the-war-he-pressed-cautiously-she-smiled-again-and/) [Boris Fishman](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/boris-fishman/) > [“The key experiential approach I now use to induce non-ordinary states of consciousness and gain access to the unconscious and superconscious psyche is Holotropic…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/stanislav-grof/the-key-experiential-approach-i-now-use-to-induce-non-ordinary-states/) [Stanislav Grof](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/stanislav-grof/) [Browse all 438 Fifteen years quotes ](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/fifteen-years/) ```json { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@graph": [ { "@type": "Quotation", "text": "“The prediction that the Singularity—an expansion of human intelligence by a factor of trillions through merger with its nonbiological form—will occur within the next several decades does not depend on the precision of these calculations. 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