--- title: "Meaning & Key Takeaway of: Think of every decision as a bet with a…" description: "\"“Think of every decision as a bet with a probability and a reward for being right and a probability and a penalty for being wrong. Normally a winning d..." image: "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/310/ray-dalio-299_decision-making_think-of-every-decision-as-a-bet-with-a_223354.jpg" --- # Think of every decision as a bet with a probability and a… ![“Think of every decision as a bet with a probability and a reward for being right and a probability and a penalty for being wrong. Normally a winning decision is one with a positive expected value, meaning that the reward times its probability of occurring is greater than the penalty times its…” quote by Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/310/ray-dalio-299_decision-making_think-of-every-decision-as-a-bet-with-a_223354.jpg) [Download](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/310/ray-dalio-299_decision-making_think-of-every-decision-as-a-bet-with-a_223354.jpg) [Open image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/310/ray-dalio-299_decision-making_think-of-every-decision-as-a-bet-with-a_223354.jpg) > ““Think of every decision as a bet with a probability and a reward for being right and a probability and a penalty for being wrong. Normally a winning decision is one with a positive expected value, meaning that the reward times its probability of occurring is greater than the penalty times its probability of occurring, with the best decision being the one with the highest expected value.”” [Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/) ## About This Quote This interpretation was drafted with AI assistance. It is one reading of the quote, not the author's own explanation. Decision making is framed as betting with known probabilities, rewards, and penalties; choose actions with highest expected value. **In simple terms:** Treat choices like bets, pick the one with best odds. Key Takeaway Focus on expected value, not just outcomes. Themes decision making probability risk management finance strategy Mood analytical pragmatic Type advisory educational When to use this quote - investment choices - career moves - daily life decisions - business strategy Key Concepts expected value probability theory risk assessment Questions to Reflect On - How can you estimate probabilities for complex decisions? - What if outcomes are unpredictable? A Different Perspective Assumes probabilities can be accurately estimated, which is often not true. ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ No ratings yet [Bet Probability](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/bet-probability-2277397/) [Decision Bet](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/decision-bet-2277395/) [Decision making](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/decision-making/) [Gamble](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/gamble/) [Probability Reward](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/probability-reward-2277396/) [Think Decision](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/think-decision-2277399/) [Winning Decision](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/winning-decision-2277398/) ## Related quotes > [“A good decision cannot guarantee a good outcome. All real decisions are made under uncertainty. A decision is therefore a bet, and evaluating it…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ward-edwards/a-good-decision-cannot-guarantee-a-good-outcome-all-real-decisions/) [Ward Edwards](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ward-edwards/) > [Every decision you make in life, not just on the sporting field - a lot of time and energy goes into it. You think…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ricky-ponting/every-decision-you-make-in-life-not-just-on-the-sporting-field-a-lot/) [Ricky Ponting](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ricky-ponting/) > [I think once I made that decision it was either all or nothing. I know I can play on the field at a very…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/hope-solo/i-think-once-i-made-that-decision-it-was-either-all-or-nothing-i-know/) [Hope Solo](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/hope-solo/) > [“There are so many times I think about a decision I’ve made and wonder, ‘What if I had done it differently? Who would I…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/rebecca-donovan/there-are-so-many-times-i-think-about-a-decision-i-ve-made-and-wonder/) [Rebecca Donovan](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/rebecca-donovan/) > [I think that the decision to go to war in Iraq was a mistake.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/hillary-clinton/i-think-that-the-decision-to-go-to-war-in-iraq-was-a-mistake/) [Hillary Clinton](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/hillary-clinton/) > [The civilized world needs to think about a decision when single politicians are not allowed to stay in power.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/vladimir-zhirinovsky/the-civilized-world-needs-to-think-about-a-decision-when-single/) [Vladimir Zhirinovsky](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/vladimir-zhirinovsky/) > [“And indeed, that IS the question: whether to float with the tide, or to swim for a goal. It is a choice we must…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/hunter-s-thompson/and-indeed-that-is-the-question-whether-to-float-with-the-tide-or-to/) [Hunter S. Thompson](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/hunter-s-thompson/) > [Starting to think my decision-making skills need an overhaul.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/anonymous/starting-to-think-my-decision-making-skills-need-an-overhaul/) [Anonymous](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/anonymous/) > [I think all decision making is very instinctive, in the end.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nell-hudson/i-think-all-decision-making-is-very-instinctive-in-the-end/) [Nell Hudson](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nell-hudson/) > [We allow ourselves to be blown by the winds because we do know what we want: our hearts know it, even if our thoughts…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/muhammad-asad/we-allow-ourselves-to-be-blown-by-the-winds-because-we-do-know-what/) [Muhammad Asad](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/muhammad-asad/) > [“make sure that no single bet, or even multiple bets, could cause me to lose more than an acceptable amount.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/make-sure-that-no-single-bet-or-even-multiple-bets-could-cause-me-to/) [Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/) > [I don't play golf competitively. I tell everybody that I cheat so they won't gamble with me. That's why you can't watch football. Everybody's…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/jack-nicholson/i-don-t-play-golf-competitively-i-tell-everybody-that-i-cheat-so-they/) [Jack Nicholson](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/jack-nicholson/) > [ \[Motherhood is\] the biggest gamble in the world. It is the glorious life force. It's huge and scary-it's an act of infinite optimism. ](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/gilda-radner/motherhood-is-the-biggest-gamble-in-the-world-it-is-the-glorious-life/) [Gilda Radner](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/gilda-radner/) > [Then they're like addicts; they can't help themselves... They will steal, cheat, embezzle and commit other crimes just to get money to gamble](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/john-warren-kindt/then-they-re-like-addicts-they-can-t-help-themselves-they-will-steal/) [John Warren Kindt](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/john-warren-kindt/) > [The planet's survival has become so uncertain that any effort, any thought that presupposes an assured future amounts to a mad gamble.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/elias-canetti/the-planet-s-survival-has-become-so-uncertain-that-any-effort-any/) [Elias Canetti](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/elias-canetti/) ## More by Ray Dalio > [“Slow down your thinking so you can note the criteria you are using to make your decision. 2. Write the criteria down as a principle.…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/slow-down-your-thinking-so-you-can-note-the-criteria-you-are-using-to/) [Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/) > [“Having a process that ensures problems are brought to the surface, and their root causes diagnosed, assures that continual improvements occur.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/having-a-process-that-ensures-problems-are-brought-to-the-surface-and/) [Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/) > [“If you can’t successfully do something, don’t think you can tell others how it should be done”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/if-you-can-t-successfully-do-something-don-t-think-you-can-tell/) [Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/) > [“Remember that a good plan should resemble a movie script.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/remember-that-a-good-plan-should-resemble-a-movie-script/) [Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/) > [“I believe that the key to success lies in knowing how to both strive for a lot and fail well. By failing well, I…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/i-believe-that-the-key-to-success-lies-in-knowing-how-to-both-strive/) [Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/) > [I'm scared of one man, one vote because it suggests that everybody has an equal ability at making decisions, and I think that's dangerous.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/i-m-scared-of-one-man-one-vote-because-it-suggests-that-everybody-has/) [Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/) > [“A manager’s ability to recognize when outcomes are inconsistent with goals and then modify designs and assemble people to rectify them makes all the…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/a-manager-s-ability-to-recognize-when-outcomes-are-inconsistent-with/) [Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/) > [“So I learned to be radically open-minded to allow others to point out what I might be missing.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/so-i-learned-to-be-radically-open-minded-to-allow-others-to-point-out/) [Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/) > [“During those terrible days after 9/11, when the whole country was being whipsawed by emotion, or the weeks between September 19 and October 10,…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/during-those-terrible-days-after-9-11-when-the-whole-country-was/) [Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/) > [“is more effective to train that subconscious, emotional you the same way you would teach a child to behave”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/is-more-effective-to-train-that-subconscious-emotional-you-the-same/) [Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/) > [I think that the first thing is you should have a strategic asset allocation mix that assumes that you don't know what the future…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/i-think-that-the-first-thing-is-you-should-have-a-strategic-asset/) [Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/) > [Life is like a game where you seek to overcome the obstacles that stand in the way of achieving your goals. You get better…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/life-is-like-a-game-where-you-seek-to-overcome-the-obstacles-that/) [Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/) > [“when we look down on ourselves through the eyes of nature we are of absolutely no significance. It is a reality that each one…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/when-we-look-down-on-ourselves-through-the-eyes-of-nature-we-are-of/) [Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/) > [“Great questions are a much better indicator of future success than great answers.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/great-questions-are-a-much-better-indicator-of-future-success-than/) [Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/) > [“Georgi Plekhanov’s classic On the Role of the Individual in History.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/georgi-plekhanov-s-classic-on-the-role-of-the-individual-in-history/) [Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/) [Explore all 716 Ray Dalio quotes ](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/) ## More Decision making quotes > [Making the right decision is hard,telling someone your decision is even harder.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/abhishek-tiwari/making-the-right-decision-is-hard-telling-someone-your-decision-is/) [Abhishek Tiwari](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/abhishek-tiwari/) > [It is said that history turns on small hinges. A human career, too, results from an accumulating series of decisions about large and small…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/norman-vincent-peale/it-is-said-that-history-turns-on-small-hinges-a-human-career-too/) [Norman Vincent Peale](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/norman-vincent-peale/) > [“Exactly. So, what can't you take? Decide which of the two options is harder, and do the other. That way, no matter how hard…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/josephine-angelini/exactly-so-what-can-t-you-take-decide-which-of-the-two-options-is/) [Josephine Angelini](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/josephine-angelini/) > [“How can you make an informed decision about whether to save the world if you never leave your tiny part of it?”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/shaun-david-hutchinson/how-can-you-make-an-informed-decision-about-whether-to-save-the-world/) [Shaun David Hutchinson](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/shaun-david-hutchinson/) > [Indecision becomes decision with time.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/anonymous/indecision-becomes-decision-with-time/) [Anonymous](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/anonymous/) > [If you think of people as making decisions actively, every time we think about the cup of coffee, we say, "How much will I…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/dan-ariely/if-you-think-of-people-as-making-decisions-actively-every-time-we/) [Dan Ariely](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/dan-ariely/) > [Decision is a risk rooted in the courage of being free.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/paul-tillich/decision-is-a-risk-rooted-in-the-courage-of-being-free/) [Paul Tillich](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/paul-tillich/) > [I never think of things rationally or intellectually. I swear, every single decision I make is just instinct and my instincts tend to be…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/neill-blomkamp/i-never-think-of-things-rationally-or-intellectually-i-swear-every/) [Neill Blomkamp](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/neill-blomkamp/) > [“Slow down your thinking so you can note the criteria you are using to make your decision. 2. Write the criteria down as a principle.…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/slow-down-your-thinking-so-you-can-note-the-criteria-you-are-using-to/) [Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/) > [My best business decision was to be independent as a musician and artist. My worst was compromising on certain aspects of a deal for…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ziggy-marley/my-best-business-decision-was-to-be-independent-as-a-musician-and/) [Ziggy Marley](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ziggy-marley/) > [“Making a decision takes a moment, living a decision takes a life-time.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/sherif-a-el-mawardy/making-a-decision-takes-a-moment-living-a-decision-takes-a-life-time/) [Sherif A. El-Mawardy](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/sherif-a-el-mawardy/) > [Cheshvan starts tonight," Rixon said, "What are you doing arsing around in a graveyard?" "Thinking." "Thinking?" "A process by which I use my brain…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/becca-fitzpatrick/cheshvan-starts-tonight-rixon-said-what-are-you-doing-arsing-around/) [Becca Fitzpatrick](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/becca-fitzpatrick/) > [The right decision is the wrong decision if it's made too late.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/lee-iacocca/the-right-decision-is-the-wrong-decision-if-it-s-made-too-late/) [Lee Iacocca](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/lee-iacocca/) > [“The decisions we take reflects our belief and our charachter”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/rajnish-borah/the-decisions-we-take-reflects-our-belief-and-our-charachter/) [Rajnish Borah](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/rajnish-borah/) > [I think most of us are raised with preconceived notions of the choices we're supposed to make. We waste so much time making decisions…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/sandra-bullock/i-think-most-of-us-are-raised-with-preconceived-notions-of-the/) [Sandra Bullock](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/sandra-bullock/) [Browse all 4,912 Decision making quotes ](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/decision-making/) ```json { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@graph": [ { "@type": "Quotation", "text": "“Think of every decision as a bet with a probability and a reward for being right and a probability and a penalty for being wrong. 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