--- title: "Meaning & Key Takeaway of: The theory of probabilities is at bottom…" description: "\"The theory of probabilities is at bottom nothing but common sense reduced to calculus; it enables us to appreciate with exactness that which accurate m..." image: "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/63f/pierre-simon-laplace-15849_accounts_the-theory-of-probabilities-is-at-bottom_3006658.jpg" --- # The theory of probabilities is at bottom nothing but… ![“The theory of probabilities is at bottom nothing but common sense reduced to calculus; it enables us to appreciate with exactness that which accurate minds feel with a sort of instinct for which of times they are unable to account.” quote by Pierre-Simon Laplace](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/63f/pierre-simon-laplace-15849_accounts_the-theory-of-probabilities-is-at-bottom_3006658.jpg) [Download](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/63f/pierre-simon-laplace-15849_accounts_the-theory-of-probabilities-is-at-bottom_3006658.jpg) [Open image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/63f/pierre-simon-laplace-15849_accounts_the-theory-of-probabilities-is-at-bottom_3006658.jpg) > “The theory of probabilities is at bottom nothing but common sense reduced to calculus; it enables us to appreciate with exactness that which accurate minds feel with a sort of instinct for which of times they are unable to account.” [Pierre-Simon Laplace](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/pierre-simon-laplace/) ## About This Quote This interpretation was drafted with AI assistance. It is one reading of the quote, not the author's own explanation. Probability theory translates intuitive judgment into precise mathematical form, revealing hidden patterns in chance. **In simple terms:** Math makes gut feelings exact. Key Takeaway Apply statistical thinking to everyday decisions. Themes probability mathematics intuition precision Mood analytical thoughtful Type educational philosophical When to use this quote - risk assessment - forecasting - scientific research - business strategy Key Concepts calculus statistical reasoning Questions to Reflect On - How does quantifying uncertainty change your confidence? - When might intuition outweigh calculation? A Different Perspective Complex models can oversimplify human nuance. ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ No ratings yet [Accounts](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/accounts/) [Accurate](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/accurate/) [Accurate Minds](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/accurate-minds-4799192/) [Appreciate](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/appreciate/) [Appreciate Exactness](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/appreciate-exactness-4799190/) [Bottom](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/bottom/) [Calculus](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/calculus/) [Calculus Enables](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/calculus-enables-4799191/) [Common](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/common/) [Common sense](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/common-sense/) [Exactness](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/exactness/) [Feels](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/feels/) [Instinct](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/instinct/) [Mind](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/mind/) [Probability](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/probability/) [Probability theory](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/probability-theory/) [Psychology](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/psychology/) [Science](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/science/) [Theory](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/theory/) [Theory Probabilities](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/theory-probabilities-1652194/) ## Related quotes > [The theory of probabilities is basically only common sense reduced to a calculus. It makes one estimate accurately what right-minded people feel by a…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/pierre-simon-laplace/the-theory-of-probabilities-is-basically-only-common-sense-reduced-to/) [Pierre-Simon Laplace](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/pierre-simon-laplace/) > [Probability theory is nothing but common sense reduced to calculation.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/pierre-simon-laplace/probability-theory-is-nothing-but-common-sense-reduced-to-calculation/) [Pierre-Simon Laplace](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/pierre-simon-laplace/) > [Coincidences, in general, are great stumbling blocks in the way of that class of thinkers who have been educated to know nothing of the…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/edgar-allan-poe/coincidences-in-general-are-great-stumbling-blocks-in-the-way-of-that/) [Edgar Allan Poe](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/edgar-allan-poe/) > [I am fully assured, that no general method for the solution of questions in the theory of probabilities can be established which does not…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/george-boole/i-am-fully-assured-that-no-general-method-for-the-solution-of/) [George Boole](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/george-boole/) > [ “A distinguished writer \[Siméon Denis Poisson\] has thus stated the fundamental definitions of the science: 'The probability of an event is the reason we… ](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/george-boole/a-distinguished-writer-sim-on-denis-poisson-has-thus-stated-the/) [George Boole](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/george-boole/) > [Probability is expectation founded upon partial knowledge. A perfect acquaintance with all the circumstances affecting the occurrence of an event would change expectation into…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/george-boole/probability-is-expectation-founded-upon-partial-knowledge-a-perfect/) [George Boole](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/george-boole/) > [It was our use of probability theory as logic that has enabled us to do so easily what was impossible for those who thought…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/edwin-thompson-jaynes/it-was-our-use-of-probability-theory-as-logic-that-has-enabled-us-to/) [Edwin Thompson Jaynes](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/edwin-thompson-jaynes/) > [In no other branch of mathematics is it so easy for experts to blunder as in probability theory.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/martin-gardner/in-no-other-branch-of-mathematics-is-it-so-easy-for-experts-to/) [Martin Gardner](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/martin-gardner/) > [“I am no friend of probability theory, I have hated it from the first moment when our dear friend Max Born gave it birth.…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/erwin-schrodinger/i-am-no-friend-of-probability-theory-i-have-hated-it-from-the-first/) [Erwin Schrödinger](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/erwin-schrodinger/) > [“Probability is orderly opinion and inference from data is nothing other than the revision of such opinion in the light of relevant new information.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/eliezer-s-yudkowsky/probability-is-orderly-opinion-and-inference-from-data-is-nothing/) [Eliezer S. Yudkowsky](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/eliezer-s-yudkowsky/) > [At a purely formal level, one could call probability theory the study of measure spaces with total measure one, but that would be like…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/terence-tao/at-a-purely-formal-level-one-could-call-probability-theory-the-study/) [Terence Tao](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/terence-tao/) > [One of the most striking and fundamental things about probability theory is that it leads to an understanding of the otherwise strange fact that…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/warren-weaver/one-of-the-most-striking-and-fundamental-things-about-probability/) [Warren Weaver](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/warren-weaver/) > [I failed math twice, never fully grasping probability theory. I mean, first off, who cares if you pick a black ball or a white…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/janet-evanovich/i-failed-math-twice-never-fully-grasping-probability-theory-i-mean/) [Janet Evanovich](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/janet-evanovich/) > [“You can’t talk to thermodynamics and you can’t pray to probability theory. You”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/eliezer-yudkowsky/you-can-t-talk-to-thermodynamics-and-you-can-t-pray-to-probability/) [Eliezer Yudkowsky](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/eliezer-yudkowsky/) > [A scientist worthy of a lab coat should be able to make original discoveries while wearing a clown suit, or give a lecture in…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/eliezer-yudkowsky/a-scientist-worthy-of-a-lab-coat-should-be-able-to-make-original/) [Eliezer Yudkowsky](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/eliezer-yudkowsky/) ## More by Pierre-Simon Laplace > [It is interesting thus to follow the intellectual truths of analysis in the phenomena of nature. This correspondence, of which the system of the…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/pierre-simon-laplace/it-is-interesting-thus-to-follow-the-intellectual-truths-of-analysis/) [Pierre-Simon Laplace](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/pierre-simon-laplace/) > [“L'homme ne poursuit que des chimères. ( Man follows only phantoms .) { His true last words, according to Augustus De Morgan .}”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/pierre-simon-laplace/l-homme-ne-poursuit-que-des-chim-res-man-follows-only-phantoms-his/) [Pierre-Simon Laplace](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/pierre-simon-laplace/) > [Such is the advantage of a well constructed language that its simplified notation often becomes the source of profound theories.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/pierre-simon-laplace/such-is-the-advantage-of-a-well-constructed-language-that-its/) [Pierre-Simon Laplace](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/pierre-simon-laplace/) > [Napoleon: You have written this huge book on the system of the world without once mentioning the author of the universe. Laplace: Sire, I…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/pierre-simon-laplace/napoleon-you-have-written-this-huge-book-on-the-system-of-the-world/) [Pierre-Simon Laplace](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/pierre-simon-laplace/) > [The weight of evidence for an extraordinary claim must be proportioned to its strangeness.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/pierre-simon-laplace/the-weight-of-evidence-for-an-extraordinary-claim-must-be/) [Pierre-Simon Laplace](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/pierre-simon-laplace/) > [“...by shortening the labours doubled the life of the astronomer. { On the benefit of John Napier 's logarithms .}”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/pierre-simon-laplace/by-shortening-the-labours-doubled-the-life-of-the-astronomer-on-the/) [Pierre-Simon Laplace](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/pierre-simon-laplace/) > [To Napoleon on why his works on celestial mechanics make no mention of God: Your Highness, I have no need of this hypothesis.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/pierre-simon-laplace/to-napoleon-on-why-his-works-on-celestial-mechanics-make-no-mention/) [Pierre-Simon Laplace](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/pierre-simon-laplace/) > [We are so far from knowing all the forces of nature and their various modes of action that it would be unworthy of the…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/pierre-simon-laplace/we-are-so-far-from-knowing-all-the-forces-of-nature-and-their-various/) [Pierre-Simon Laplace](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/pierre-simon-laplace/) > [If an event can be produced by a number n of different causes, the probabilities of the existence of these causes, given the event…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/pierre-simon-laplace/if-an-event-can-be-produced-by-a-number-n-of-different-causes-the/) [Pierre-Simon Laplace](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/pierre-simon-laplace/) > [The word 'chance' then expresses only our ignorance of the causes of the phenomena that we observe to occur and to succeed one another…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/pierre-simon-laplace/the-word-chance-then-expresses-only-our-ignorance-of-the-causes-of/) [Pierre-Simon Laplace](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/pierre-simon-laplace/) > [The simplicity of the law by which the celestial bodies move, and the relations of their masses and distances, permit analysis to follow their…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/pierre-simon-laplace/the-simplicity-of-the-law-by-which-the-celestial-bodies-move-and-the/) [Pierre-Simon Laplace](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/pierre-simon-laplace/) > [His last words, according to De Morgan: Man follows only phantoms.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/pierre-simon-laplace/his-last-words-according-to-de-morgan-man-follows-only-phantoms/) [Pierre-Simon Laplace](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/pierre-simon-laplace/) > [The most important questions of life are indeed, for the most part, really only problems of probability.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/pierre-simon-laplace/the-most-important-questions-of-life-are-indeed-for-the-most-part/) [Pierre-Simon Laplace](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/pierre-simon-laplace/) > [Man follows only phantoms.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/pierre-simon-laplace/man-follows-only-phantoms/) [Pierre-Simon Laplace](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/pierre-simon-laplace/) > [The simplicity of nature is not to be measured by that of our conceptions. Infinitely varied in its effects, nature is simple only in…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/pierre-simon-laplace/the-simplicity-of-nature-is-not-to-be-measured-by-that-of-our/) [Pierre-Simon Laplace](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/pierre-simon-laplace/) [Explore all 39 Pierre-Simon Laplace quotes ](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/pierre-simon-laplace/) ## More Accounts quotes > [I think most artists feel like they're outside society - no matter how many accolades they receive, or how much money is in your…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/aaron-rose/i-think-most-artists-feel-like-they-re-outside-society-no-matter-how/) [Aaron Rose](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/aaron-rose/) > [Think of these things, whence you came, where you are going, and to whom you must account.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/benjamin-franklin/think-of-these-things-whence-you-came-where-you-are-going-and-to-whom/) [Benjamin Franklin](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/benjamin-franklin/) > [Believing with you that religion is a matter which lies solely between man and his God, that he owes account to none other for…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/thomas-jefferson/believing-with-you-that-religion-is-a-matter-which-lies-solely/) [Thomas Jefferson](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/thomas-jefferson/) > [There is nothing that we can properly call our own but our time, and yet everybody fools us out of it who has a…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/seneca-the-younger/there-is-nothing-that-we-can-properly-call-our-own-but-our-time-and/) [Seneca the Younger](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/seneca-the-younger/) > [The Hindus have a peculiar slovenliness in business matters, not being sufficiently methodical and strict in keeping accounts etc.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/swami-vivekananda/the-hindus-have-a-peculiar-slovenliness-in-business-matters-not-being/) [Swami Vivekananda](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/swami-vivekananda/) > [With the Truman book, I wrote the entire account of his experiences in World War I before going over to Europe to follow his…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/david-mccullough/with-the-truman-book-i-wrote-the-entire-account-of-his-experiences-in/) [David McCullough](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/david-mccullough/) > [A great read; an exciting, frightening account of organized crime today. 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