--- title: "Meaning & Key Takeaway of: Suppose a country starts its independence…" description: "\"“Suppose a country starts its independence with the three economic characteristics that globally make a country prone to civil war: low income, slow gr..." image: "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/ff5/paul-collier-24773_civil-war_suppose-a-country-starts-its-independenc_2205881.png" --- # Suppose a country starts its independence with the three… ![“Suppose a country starts its independence with the three economic characteristics that globally make a country prone to civil war: low income, slow growth, and dependence upon primary commodity exports. It is playing Russian roulette. That is not just an idle metaphor: the risk that a country in…” quote by Paul Collier](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/ff5/paul-collier-24773_civil-war_suppose-a-country-starts-its-independenc_2205881.png) [Download](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/ff5/paul-collier-24773_civil-war_suppose-a-country-starts-its-independenc_2205881.png) [Open image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/ff5/paul-collier-24773_civil-war_suppose-a-country-starts-its-independenc_2205881.png) > ““Suppose a country starts its independence with the three economic characteristics that globally make a country prone to civil war: low income, slow growth, and dependence upon primary commodity exports. It is playing Russian roulette. That is not just an idle metaphor: the risk that a country in the bottom billion falls into civil war in any five-year period is nearly one in six, the same risk facing a player of Russian roulette.”” [Paul Collier](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/paul-collier/) ## About This Quote This interpretation was drafted with AI assistance. It is one reading of the quote, not the author's own explanation. Countries with low income, stagnant growth, and commodity dependence face high civil war risk, akin to Russian roulette. **In simple terms:** Economic weakness raises war risk. Key Takeaway Address structural economic issues. Themes economics conflict development Mood analytical cautious Type academic policy When to use this quote - policy making - international aid - investment decisions Key Concepts political economy risk analysis Questions to Reflect On - What non‑economic levers can reduce conflict? - How can institutions be strengthened? A Different Perspective Economic focus alone ignores political and social factors. ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ No ratings yet [Characteristics Globally](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/characteristics-globally-4865100/) [Civil war](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/civil-war/) [Country Prone](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/country-prone-4865099/) [Development](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/development/) [Economic Characteristics](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/economic-characteristics-4865098/) [Freedom](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/freedom/) [Independence Economic](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/independence-economic-1398502/) [Low income](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/low-income/) [Poverty](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/poverty/) [Risk Country](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/risk-country-4865101/) [Russian roulette](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/russian-roulette/) [Slow growth](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/slow-growth/) [War](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/war/) ## Related quotes > [Leaders have devoted themselves to politics, little knowing, it seems that political independence disappears without economic independence that economic independence is the foundation of…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/booker-t-washington/leaders-have-devoted-themselves-to-politics-little-knowing-it-seems/) [Booker T. Washington](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/booker-t-washington/) > [The independence of the economic sphere was a tenet of faith with Liberalism](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/francis-parker-yockey/the-independence-of-the-economic-sphere-was-a-tenet-of-faith-with/) [Francis Parker Yockey](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/francis-parker-yockey/) > [Our oil problems are only going to get worse. Our trade balance is only going to get worse. So we have to slow the…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/sherwood-boehlert/our-oil-problems-are-only-going-to-get-worse-our-trade-balance-is/) [Sherwood Boehlert](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/sherwood-boehlert/) > [ \[On women getting the vote:\] The newspapers, poor dears, looked of course for something very spectacular. But then newspapers are always apt to be… ](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/margaret-case-harriman/on-women-getting-the-vote-the-newspapers-poor-dears-looked-of-course/) [Margaret Case Harriman](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/margaret-case-harriman/) > [“It has always been a mystery to me how Adam, Eve, and the serpent were taught the same language. Where did they get it?…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/robert-g-ingersoll/it-has-always-been-a-mystery-to-me-how-adam-eve-and-the-serpent-were/) [Robert G. Ingersoll](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/robert-g-ingersoll/) > [ Because of that \[Brexit\], you're going to have slow growth and, unfortunately, while there may not be huge volatility, there will be volatility. ](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/jamie-dimon/because-of-that-brexit-you-re-going-to-have-slow-growth-and/) [Jamie Dimon](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/jamie-dimon/) > [“So far we have seen the weakening and collapse of small and medium-sized states in Africa and the Middle East. But quasi-anarchy in larger…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/robert-d-kaplan/so-far-we-have-seen-the-weakening-and-collapse-of-small-and-medium/) [Robert D. Kaplan](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/robert-d-kaplan/) > [If I'm a commodity, it wouldn't be a wise idea to buy stock in me - although, in the long run, maybe I'm a…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/tim-robbins/if-i-m-a-commodity-it-wouldn-t-be-a-wise-idea-to-buy-stock-in-me/) [Tim Robbins](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/tim-robbins/) > [Confidence is a plant of slow growth in an aged bosom.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/william-pitt/confidence-is-a-plant-of-slow-growth-in-an-aged-bosom/) [William Pitt](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/william-pitt/) > [Confidence is a plant of slow growth.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/anna-leonowens/confidence-is-a-plant-of-slow-growth/) [Anna Leonowens](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/anna-leonowens/) > [I must express my protest against continually increasing the debt without taking positive steps to slow its growth.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/joe-biden/i-must-express-my-protest-against-continually-increasing-the-debt/) [Joe Biden](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/joe-biden/) > [Of all the officers of the Government, those of the Department of Justice should be kept most free from any suspicion of improper action…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/theodore-roosevelt/of-all-the-officers-of-the-government-those-of-the-department-of/) [Theodore Roosevelt](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/theodore-roosevelt/) > [Knowledge is a plant of slow growth.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/thomas-cooper/knowledge-is-a-plant-of-slow-growth/) [Thomas Cooper](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/thomas-cooper/) > [In emerging markets, slow growth in the advanced economies has shut down a traditional development path: export-led growth. As a result, emerging markets have…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/raghuram-rajan/in-emerging-markets-slow-growth-in-the-advanced-economies-has-shut/) [Raghuram Rajan](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/raghuram-rajan/) > [The reason we have not gone to newspapers is because its a slow growth industry and I think they are dying. I'm not sure…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/sumner-redstone/the-reason-we-have-not-gone-to-newspapers-is-because-its-a-slow/) [Sumner Redstone](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/sumner-redstone/) ## More by Paul Collier > [“And so a miserable but possible scenario is that countries in the bottom billion oscillate between the traps and limbo, perhaps switching in the…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/paul-collier/and-so-a-miserable-but-possible-scenario-is-that-countries-in-the/) [Paul Collier](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/paul-collier/) > [“Rebels usually have something to complain about, and if they don't they make it up. All too often the really disadvantaged are in no…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/paul-collier/rebels-usually-have-something-to-complain-about-and-if-they-don-t/) [Paul Collier](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/paul-collier/) > [How do we give credible hope to the billion poorest people in the world? It requires compassion to get ourselves started, and enlightened self-interest…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/paul-collier/how-do-we-give-credible-hope-to-the-billion-poorest-people-in-the/) [Paul Collier](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/paul-collier/) > [“Electorates tend to get the politicians they deserve.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/paul-collier/electorates-tend-to-get-the-politicians-they-deserve/) [Paul Collier](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/paul-collier/) > [At the core of all successful societies are procedures for blocking the advancement of bad men](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/paul-collier/at-the-core-of-all-successful-societies-are-procedures-for-blocking/) [Paul Collier](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/paul-collier/) > [“The critical changes in trade policy... are politically difficult not because they threaten interests (they don't) but because they do not fit into any…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/paul-collier/the-critical-changes-in-trade-policy-are-politically-difficult-not/) [Paul Collier](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/paul-collier/) > [There is a simple way of avoiding excess risk-taking by the managers of our financial institutions. It is to make it a crime ...…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/paul-collier/there-is-a-simple-way-of-avoiding-excess-risk-taking-by-the-managers/) [Paul Collier](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/paul-collier/) > [Most conduct is guided by norms rather than by laws. Norms are voluntary and are effective because they are enforced by peer pressure.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/paul-collier/most-conduct-is-guided-by-norms-rather-than-by-laws-norms-are/) [Paul Collier](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/paul-collier/) > [“Launching a turnaround takes courage. I cannot measure that and so it is not going to be included in my analysis, but behind the…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/paul-collier/launching-a-turnaround-takes-courage-i-cannot-measure-that-and-so-it/) [Paul Collier](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/paul-collier/) > [Politicians would only move beyond gestures once there was a critical mass of informed citizens.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/paul-collier/politicians-would-only-move-beyond-gestures-once-there-was-a-critical/) [Paul Collier](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/paul-collier/) > [Change in the societies at the very bottom must come predominantly from within; we cannot impose it on them.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/paul-collier/change-in-the-societies-at-the-very-bottom-must-come-predominantly/) [Paul Collier](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/paul-collier/) > [“Persuading everyone to behave decently to each other because the society is so fragile is a worthy goal, but it may be more straightforward…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/paul-collier/persuading-everyone-to-behave-decently-to-each-other-because-the/) [Paul Collier](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/paul-collier/) > [“Pressure works, but it needs to be organized. This is the domain of the NGOs and the rock stars.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/paul-collier/pressure-works-but-it-needs-to-be-organized-this-is-the-domain-of-the/) [Paul Collier](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/paul-collier/) > [Migration has been politicized before it has been analyzed.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/paul-collier/migration-has-been-politicized-before-it-has-been-analyzed/) [Paul Collier](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/paul-collier/) > [Without an informed electorate, politicians will continue to use the bottom billion merely for photo opportunities, rather than promoting real transformation.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/paul-collier/without-an-informed-electorate-politicians-will-continue-to-use-the/) [Paul Collier](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/paul-collier/) [Explore all 24 Paul Collier quotes ](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/paul-collier/) ## More Civil war quotes > [“Time overlaps itself. A breath breathed from a passing breeze is not the whole wind, neither is it just the last of what has…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ken-kesey/time-overlaps-itself-a-breath-breathed-from-a-passing-breeze-is-not/) [Ken Kesey](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ken-kesey/) > [“Whatever happened in those more than one hundred years, from the time my great-great-great grandfather studied law to the time when my own father…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/gwenn-wright/whatever-happened-in-those-more-than-one-hundred-years-from-the-time/) [Gwenn Wright](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/gwenn-wright/) > [“AUSTRALIA, LIKE THE UNITED STATES, experienced a different path to inclusive institutions than the one taken by England. The same revolutions that shook England…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/daron-acemo-lu/australia-like-the-united-states-experienced-a-different-path-to/) [Daron Acemoğlu](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/daron-acemo-lu/) > [“These are all good things, I said. But no one knows where your country is or who you are. You don't have a familiar…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/gary-shteyngart/these-are-all-good-things-i-said-but-no-one-knows-where-your-country/) [Gary Shteyngart](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/gary-shteyngart/) > [“Thinking about the weather was one way of shutting out of his mind the appalling bloody human mess sprawled out over the bed of…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/mark-ellis/thinking-about-the-weather-was-one-way-of-shutting-out-of-his-mind/) [Mark Ellis](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/mark-ellis/) > [It cost about 75 cents to kill a man in Ceasar's time. The price rose to about $3,000 per man during the Napoleonic wars;…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/homer-bone/it-cost-about-75-cents-to-kill-a-man-in-ceasar-s-time-the-price-rose/) [Homer Bone](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/homer-bone/) > [Alabama soldiers, all I ask of you is to keep up with the Texans!](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/robert-e-lee/alabama-soldiers-all-i-ask-of-you-is-to-keep-up-with-the-texans/) [Robert E. Lee](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/robert-e-lee/) > [“ “In the South, football is confused with religion, chivalry, the Civil War, and women.” -Diane Roberts, The Quotable South ”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/deborah-ford/in-the-south-football-is-confused-with-religion-chivalry-the-civil/) [Deborah Ford](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/deborah-ford/) > [“By the following morning, September 15, Jackson had positioned nearly fifty guns on Maryland Heights and at the base of Loudoun Heights.  Then he…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/charles-river-editors/by-the-following-morning-september-15-jackson-had-positioned-nearly/) [Charles River Editors](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/charles-river-editors/) > [Strange, (is it not?) that battles, martyrs, blood, even assassination should so condense - perhaps only really lastingly condense - a Nationality.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/walt-whitman/strange-is-it-not-that-battles-martyrs-blood-even-assassination/) [Walt Whitman](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/walt-whitman/) > [You must study to be frank with the world: frankness is the child of honesty and courage. Say just what you mean to do…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/robert-e-lee/you-must-study-to-be-frank-with-the-world-frankness-is-the-child-of/) [Robert E. Lee](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/robert-e-lee/) > [“Civil wars...are the best wars for the writer...because they have a way of continuing long afterwl wars between nations are resolved; because, with the…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ralph-ellison/civil-wars-are-the-best-wars-for-the-writer-because-they-have-a-way/) [Ralph Ellison](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ralph-ellison/) > [I am out of money,we are all out of money,but we dont need money down here- Dont need anything but Men , Muskets, Ammunition,…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/james-a-connolly/i-am-out-of-money-we-are-all-out-of-money-but-we-dont-need-money-down/) [James A. Connolly](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/james-a-connolly/) > [Affirmative action was designed to recognize the uniquely difficult journey of African-Americans. This policy was justifiable and understandable, even to those who came from…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/jim-webb/affirmative-action-was-designed-to-recognize-the-uniquely-difficult/) [Jim Webb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/jim-webb/) > [“Only twenty - nine years in the entire human history had been without warfare, and now here he was too, travelling between the episodes…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nadeem-aslam/only-twenty-nine-years-in-the-entire-human-history-had-been-without/) [Nadeem Aslam](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nadeem-aslam/) [Browse all 1,714 Civil war quotes ](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/civil-war/) ```json { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@graph": [ { "@type": "Quotation", "text": "“Suppose a country starts its independence with the three economic characteristics that globally make a country prone to civil war: low income, slow growth, and dependence upon primary commodity exports. It is playing Russian roulette. That is not just an idle metaphor: the risk that a country in the bottom billion falls into civil war in any five-year period is nearly one in six, the same risk facing a player of Russian roulette.”", "creator": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Paul Collier" }, "isPartOf": { "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/#website" }, "url": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/paul-collier/suppose-a-country-starts-its-independence-with-the-three-economic/", "about": { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Civil war" }, "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/paul-collier/suppose-a-country-starts-its-independence-with-the-three-economic/#quotation", "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/ff5/paul-collier-24773_civil-war_suppose-a-country-starts-its-independenc_2205881.png", "contentUrl": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/ff5/paul-collier-24773_civil-war_suppose-a-country-starts-its-independenc_2205881.png", "url": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/ff5/paul-collier-24773_civil-war_suppose-a-country-starts-its-independenc_2205881.png", "width": 1080, "height": 1080, "caption": "“Suppose a country starts its independence with the three economic characteristics that globally make a…” — Paul Collier", "creditText": "SMS4Smile Quotes", "creator": { "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/#organization" } } }, { "@type": "BreadcrumbList", "itemListElement": [ { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 1, "name": "Home", "item": "https://sms4smile.com/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 2, "name": "Quotes", "item": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 3, "name": "Paul Collier", "item": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/paul-collier/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 4, "name": "“Suppose a country starts its independence...", "item": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/paul-collier/suppose-a-country-starts-its-independence-with-the-three-economic/" } ], "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/paul-collier/suppose-a-country-starts-its-independence-with-the-three-economic/#breadcrumb" }, { "@type": "WebSite", "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/#website", "name": "SMS4Smile Quotes", "url": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/", "publisher": { "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/#organization" } }, { "@type": "Organization", "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/#organization", "name": "SMS4Smile Quotes", "url": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/", "logo": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/wp-content/themes/sq/assets/icons/icon-512.png", "width": 512, "height": 512 } } ] } ```