--- title: "Meaning & Key Takeaway of: Actually, one of the better indicators…" description: "\"Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it'..." image: "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/3b1/nate-silver-3166_customer_actually-one-of-the-better-indicators-hi_285305.jpg" --- # Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how… ![“Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it…” quote by Nate Silver](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/3b1/nate-silver-3166_customer_actually-one-of-the-better-indicators-hi_285305.jpg) [Download](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/3b1/nate-silver-3166_customer_actually-one-of-the-better-indicators-hi_285305.jpg) [Open image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/3b1/nate-silver-3166_customer_actually-one-of-the-better-indicators-hi_285305.jpg) > “Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.” [Nate Silver](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nate-silver/) ## About This Quote This interpretation was drafted with AI assistance. It is one reading of the quote, not the author's own explanation. Public sentiment often moves opposite to market trends; optimism can signal a coming downturn. **In simple terms:** When people feel good about investing, markets may actually be near a peak. Key Takeaway Watch sentiment as a contrarian indicator. Themes economics behavioral finance sentiment contrarian investing Mood cautious analytical Type advisory insightful When to use this quote - investment strategy - portfolio management - financial planning Key Concepts crowd psychology market cycles risk perception Questions to Reflect On - How do you balance sentiment with data? - What other contrarian signals exist? A Different Perspective Sentiment alone isn’t reliable; combine with fundamentals. ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ No ratings yet [Customer](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/customer/) [Decline](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/decline/) [Facts](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/facts/) [Gallup Poll](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/gallup-poll-528778/) [Good times](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/good-times/) [Indicators](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/indicators/) [Invest Stocks](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/invest-stocks-947973/) [Investing](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/investing/) [Markets Going](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/markets-going-2758643/) [Opposite direction](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/opposite-direction/) [Opposites](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/opposites/) [Polls](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/polls/) [Stock market](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/stock-market/) [Stocks Goes](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/stocks-goes-2758644/) [Thinking](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/thinking/) [Time](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/time/) [Time To Invest](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/time-to-invest/) [Wells](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/wells/) ## Related quotes > [We look at all the polls, not just the Gallup Poll. So, it's kind of like if you have, you know, four out of…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nate-silver/we-look-at-all-the-polls-not-just-the-gallup-poll-so-it-s-kind-of/) [Nate Silver](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nate-silver/) > [In the 40 years I've been working as an economist and investor, I have never seen such a disconnect between the asset market and…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/marc-faber/in-the-40-years-i-ve-been-working-as-an-economist-and-investor-i-have/) [Marc Faber](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/marc-faber/) > [We don't know where the markets are going…we have to observe what's going down, see the trends, look at every vibration on the market,…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/carlos-ghosn/we-don-t-know-where-the-markets-are-going-we-have-to-observe-what-s/) [Carlos Ghosn](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/carlos-ghosn/) > [The (stock) market is there only as a reference point to see if anybody is offering to do anything foolish. When we invest in…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/warren-buffett/the-stock-market-is-there-only-as-a-reference-point-to-see-if-anybody/) [Warren Buffett](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/warren-buffett/) > [I made money. What am I gonna invest in? Stocks? 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Redick](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/j-j-redick/) > [“Yes, I had left the State Department with some of the highest approval ratings of anyone in public life—one poll from the Wall Street…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/hillary-rodham-clinton/yes-i-had-left-the-state-department-with-some-of-the-highest-approval/) [Hillary Rodham Clinton](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/hillary-rodham-clinton/) > [ What may worry \[Donald\] Trump, the latest Gallup poll. It shows just 44 percent of Americans approve of how he's handling the transition, almost… ](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/george-stephanopoulos/what-may-worry-donald-trump-the-latest-gallup-poll-it-shows-just-44/) [George Stephanopoulos](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/george-stephanopoulos/) > [Every year since 1990, the Gallup poll has asked Americans to assess all the presidents since John F. Kennedy. And every year, Kennedy comes…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/robert-dallek/every-year-since-1990-the-gallup-poll-has-asked-americans-to-assess/) [Robert Dallek](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/robert-dallek/) > [Since 2005, a majority of Americans, according to the Gallup poll, have said it was wrong and a mistake to go into Iraq.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/david-brooks/since-2005-a-majority-of-americans-according-to-the-gallup-poll-have/) [David Brooks](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/david-brooks/) > [“I had recently read that 3.7 million Americans, according to a Gallup poll, believed that they had been abducted by aliens at one time…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/bill-bryson/i-had-recently-read-that-3-7-million-americans-according-to-a-gallup/) [Bill Bryson](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/bill-bryson/) > [“An October 2015 Gallup poll found that a 56 to 41 percent margin of Americans believe that increased concealed carry leads to improved safety.3…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/john-r-lott-jr/an-october-2015-gallup-poll-found-that-a-56-to-41-percent-margin-of/) [John R. Lott Jr](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/john-r-lott-jr/) > [I don't think the Gallup Poll technique is going to be very helpful in determining the goals of our educational system.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/sargent-shriver/i-don-t-think-the-gallup-poll-technique-is-going-to-be-very-helpful/) [Sargent Shriver](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/sargent-shriver/) > [In fact, I'm very grateful that we were given that time to invest in ourselves and our craft before we were exposed to the…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/rose/in-fact-i-m-very-grateful-that-we-were-given-that-time-to-invest-in/) [Rose](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/rose/) ## More by Nate Silver > [Finding patterns is easy in any kind of data-rich environment; that's what mediocre gamblers do. The key is in determining whether the patterns represent…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nate-silver/finding-patterns-is-easy-in-any-kind-of-data-rich-environment-that-s/) [Nate Silver](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nate-silver/) > [Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nate-silver/not-only-does-political-coverage-often-lose-the-signal-it-frequently/) [Nate Silver](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nate-silver/) > [“These partisan beliefs can upset the equation in which more information will bring us closer to the truth. A recent study in Nature found…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nate-silver/these-partisan-beliefs-can-upset-the-equation-in-which-more/) [Nate Silver](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nate-silver/) > [I have the same friends and the same bad habits.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nate-silver/i-have-the-same-friends-and-the-same-bad-habits/) [Nate Silver](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nate-silver/) > [I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nate-silver/i-think-a-lot-of-journal-articles-should-really-be-blogs/) [Nate Silver](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nate-silver/) > [The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nate-silver/the-public-is-even-more-pessimistic-about-the-economy-than-even-the/) [Nate Silver](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nate-silver/) > [I don't think you should limit what you read.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nate-silver/i-don-t-think-you-should-limit-what-you-read/) [Nate Silver](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nate-silver/) > [“But forecasters often resist considering these out-of-sample problems. When we expand our sample to include events further apart from us in time and space,…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nate-silver/but-forecasters-often-resist-considering-these-out-of-sample-problems/) [Nate Silver](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nate-silver/) > [In politics people build whole reputations off of getting one thing right.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nate-silver/in-politics-people-build-whole-reputations-off-of-getting-one-thing/) [Nate Silver](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nate-silver/) > [Well, you know, you're not going to have 86 percent of Congress voted out of office.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nate-silver/well-you-know-you-re-not-going-to-have-86-percent-of-congress-voted/) [Nate Silver](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nate-silver/) > [The quest for certainty in forecasting outcomes can be the enemy of progress.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nate-silver/the-quest-for-certainty-in-forecasting-outcomes-can-be-the-enemy-of/) [Nate Silver](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nate-silver/) > [To be a very, very minor, eighth-tier celebrity, you realize, 'Hey, celebrities are just like us.'](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nate-silver/to-be-a-very-very-minor-eighth-tier-celebrity-you-realize-hey/) [Nate Silver](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nate-silver/) > [“Most of you will have heard the maxim "correlation does not imply causation." 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