--- title: "Meaning & Key Takeaway of: The inability to predict outliers implies…" description: "\"The inability to predict outliers implies the inability to predict the course of history\" — Nassim Nicholas Taleb" image: "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/d3a/nassim-nicholas-taleb-352_history_the-inability-to-predict-outliers-implie_3105314.png" --- # The inability to predict outliers implies the inability to… ![“The inability to predict outliers implies the inability to predict the course of history” quote by Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/d3a/nassim-nicholas-taleb-352_history_the-inability-to-predict-outliers-implie_3105314.png) [Download](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/d3a/nassim-nicholas-taleb-352_history_the-inability-to-predict-outliers-implie_3105314.png) [Open image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/d3a/nassim-nicholas-taleb-352_history_the-inability-to-predict-outliers-implie_3105314.png) > “The inability to predict outliers implies the inability to predict the course of history” [Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nassim-nicholas-taleb/) ## About This Quote This interpretation was drafted with AI assistance. It is one reading of the quote, not the author's own explanation. Predicting rare events is impossible, so forecasting history’s path is likewise uncertain. **In simple terms:** Outliers are unpredictable, so history can’t be forecasted. Key Takeaway Accept uncertainty, focus on resilience. Themes uncertainty history prediction Mood cautious reflective Type analytical philosophical When to use this quote - investment - policy planning - risk management - personal decisions Key Concepts risk black swan probability Questions to Reflect On - How do you prepare for unknown unknowns? - What role does randomness play in your field? A Different Perspective Rare events can dominate outcomes, limiting predictive models. ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ No ratings yet [History](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/history/) [Outliers](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/outliers/) ## Related quotes > [Throughout my life, I have been fascinated by predictability and frustrated by our inability to predict. 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The outliers are not very far away from the mainstream.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/tony-abbott/we-are-a-very-like-minded-group-the-senior-members-of-this-government/) [Tony Abbott](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/tony-abbott/) > [The lesson here is very simple. But it is striking how often it is overlooked. We are so caught in the myths of the…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/malcolm-gladwell/the-lesson-here-is-very-simple-but-it-is-striking-how-often-it-is/) [Malcolm Gladwell](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/malcolm-gladwell/) > [“All statistics have outliers. Money management, therefore, is key to the process of good trading.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/yvan-byeajee/all-statistics-have-outliers-money-management-therefore-is-key-to-the/) [Yvan Byeajee](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/yvan-byeajee/) > [“We can seek to rationalize the worst behavior by pointing to outliers.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ryan-holiday/we-can-seek-to-rationalize-the-worst-behavior-by-pointing-to-outliers/) [Ryan Holiday](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ryan-holiday/) > [The distribution of the market is fat-tailed relative to the normal distribution... For passive investors, none of this matters, beyond being aware that outlier…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/eugene-fama/the-distribution-of-the-market-is-fat-tailed-relative-to-the-normal/) [Eugene Fama](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/eugene-fama/) > [The truly creative people tend to be outliers.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nolan-bushnell/the-truly-creative-people-tend-to-be-outliers/) [Nolan Bushnell](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nolan-bushnell/) > [Outlier are those who have been given opportunities-- -and who have had the strength and presence of mind to seize them.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/malcolm-gladwell/outlier-are-those-who-have-been-given-opportunities-and-who-have-had/) [Malcolm Gladwell](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/malcolm-gladwell/) > [The easiest way to thrive as an outlier is to avoid being one. At least among your most treasured peers. Surround yourself with people…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/seth-godin/the-easiest-way-to-thrive-as-an-outlier-is-to-avoid-being-one-at/) [Seth Godin](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/seth-godin/) > [If there is one thing I learned by reading Epstein's "The Sports Gene" it is that world-class athletes are, by definition, abnormal: that is,…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/malcolm-gladwell/if-there-is-one-thing-i-learned-by-reading-epstein-s-the-sports-gene/) [Malcolm Gladwell](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/malcolm-gladwell/) > [“So much of what people believe makes no sense, Wylie.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/kimberly-mccreight/so-much-of-what-people-believe-makes-no-sense-wylie/) [Kimberly McCreight](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/kimberly-mccreight/) ## More by Nassim Nicholas Taleb > [To become a philosopher, start by walking very slowly.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/to-become-a-philosopher-start-by-walking-very-slowly/) [Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nassim-nicholas-taleb/) > [Wittgenstein's ruler: Unless you have confidence in the ruler's reliability, if you use a ruler to measure a table you may also be using…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/wittgenstein-s-ruler-unless-you-have-confidence-in-the-ruler-s/) [Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nassim-nicholas-taleb/) > [In politics we face the choice between warmongering, nation-state loving, big-business agents on one hand; and risk-blind, top-down, epistemic arrogant big servants of large…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/in-politics-we-face-the-choice-between-warmongering-nation-state/) [Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nassim-nicholas-taleb/) > [My nightmare scenario is that the government saves Citibank once again, as well as the other banks, and business resumes as usual. 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It moved people to overcome their…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/angela-merkel/history-has-often-showed-us-the-strength-of-the-forces-that-are/) [Angela Merkel](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/angela-merkel/) > [We find few historians who have been diligent enough in their search for truth; it is their common method to take on trust what…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/john-dryden/we-find-few-historians-who-have-been-diligent-enough-in-their-search/) [John Dryden](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/john-dryden/) > [What is history after all? History is facts which become lies in the end.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/jean-cocteau/what-is-history-after-all-history-is-facts-which-become-lies-in-the/) [Jean Cocteau](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/jean-cocteau/) > [Things live and die, and then someone processes them into edible portions. This is a complete telling of the story, 'Food.' The basic plot…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/david-fahrenthold/things-live-and-die-and-then-someone-processes-them-into-edible/) [David Fahrenthold](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/david-fahrenthold/) > [History is a certain way, but you just change the point of view a little bit, and you discover a whole new side of…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/allison-schroeder/history-is-a-certain-way-but-you-just-change-the-point-of-view-a/) [Allison Schroeder](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/allison-schroeder/) > [We're at a point in history were we have to become a part of the neighborhood of inhabited planets, like a neighborhood of a…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/edgar-mitchell/we-re-at-a-point-in-history-were-we-have-to-become-a-part-of-the/) [Edgar Mitchell](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/edgar-mitchell/) > [Today is a reality, tomorrow's a promise, and yesterday's history!](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/billy-blanks/today-is-a-reality-tomorrow-s-a-promise-and-yesterday-s-history/) [Billy Blanks](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/billy-blanks/) > [Truth be told from compulsive liars with a history/Everything must change 2nd chances are a mystery](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/c-dash/truth-be-told-from-compulsive-liars-with-a-history-everything-must/) C-DASH > [Every army in the history of the world has always had some deserters, usually much greater than we have today, because once again every…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/bryan-hilferty/every-army-in-the-history-of-the-world-has-always-had-some-deserters/) [Bryan Hilferty](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/bryan-hilferty/) > [“To those great geniuses now in petticoats, who shall write novels for the beloved reader's children, these men and things will be as much…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/william-makepeace-thackeray/to-those-great-geniuses-now-in-petticoats-who-shall-write-novels-for/) [William Makepeace Thackeray](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/william-makepeace-thackeray/) [Browse all 27,263 History quotes ](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/history/) ```json { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@graph": [ { "@type": "Quotation", "text": "The inability to predict outliers implies the inability to predict the course of history", "creator": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Nassim Nicholas Taleb" }, "isPartOf": { "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/#website" }, "url": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/the-inability-to-predict-outliers-implies-the-inability-to-predict/", "about": { "@type": "Thing", "name": "History" }, "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/the-inability-to-predict-outliers-implies-the-inability-to-predict/#quotation", "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/d3a/nassim-nicholas-taleb-352_history_the-inability-to-predict-outliers-implie_3105314.png", "contentUrl": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/d3a/nassim-nicholas-taleb-352_history_the-inability-to-predict-outliers-implie_3105314.png", "url": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/d3a/nassim-nicholas-taleb-352_history_the-inability-to-predict-outliers-implie_3105314.png", "width": 1080, "height": 1080, "caption": "“The inability to predict outliers implies the inability to predict the course of history” — Nassim Nicholas Taleb", "creditText": "SMS4Smile Quotes", "creator": { "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/#organization" } } }, { "@type": "BreadcrumbList", "itemListElement": [ { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 1, "name": "Home", "item": "https://sms4smile.com/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 2, "name": "Quotes", "item": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 3, "name": "Nassim Nicholas Taleb", "item": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nassim-nicholas-taleb/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 4, "name": "The inability to predict outliers implies...", "item": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/the-inability-to-predict-outliers-implies-the-inability-to-predict/" } ], "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/the-inability-to-predict-outliers-implies-the-inability-to-predict/#breadcrumb" }, { "@type": "WebSite", "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/#website", "name": "SMS4Smile Quotes", "url": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/", "publisher": { "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/#organization" } }, { "@type": "Organization", "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/#organization", "name": "SMS4Smile Quotes", "url": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/", "logo": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/wp-content/themes/sq/assets/icons/icon-512.png", "width": 512, "height": 512 } } ] } ```