--- title: "Meaning & Key Takeaway of: Probability is not a mere computation of…" description: "\"Probability is not a mere computation of odds on the dice or more complicated variants; it is the acceptance of the lack of certainty in our knowledge ..." image: "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/01f/nassim-nicholas-taleb-352_acceptance_probability-is-not-a-mere-computation-of_3087176.png" --- # Probability is not a mere computation of odds on the dice… ![“Probability is not a mere computation of odds on the dice or more complicated variants; it is the acceptance of the lack of certainty in our knowledge and the development of methods for dealing with our ignorance.” quote by Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/01f/nassim-nicholas-taleb-352_acceptance_probability-is-not-a-mere-computation-of_3087176.png) [Download](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/01f/nassim-nicholas-taleb-352_acceptance_probability-is-not-a-mere-computation-of_3087176.png) [Open image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/01f/nassim-nicholas-taleb-352_acceptance_probability-is-not-a-mere-computation-of_3087176.png) > “Probability is not a mere computation of odds on the dice or more complicated variants; it is the acceptance of the lack of certainty in our knowledge and the development of methods for dealing with our ignorance.” [Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nassim-nicholas-taleb/) ## About This Quote This interpretation was drafted with AI assistance. It is one reading of the quote, not the author's own explanation. Probability is about embracing uncertainty and creating tools to manage ignorance, not just calculating odds. **In simple terms:** Embrace uncertainty, develop coping methods. Key Takeaway Accept uncertainty, improve decision‑making. Themes uncertainty knowledge methodology Mood thoughtful inquisitive Type philosophical educational When to use this quote - Finance - science research - policy planning Key Concepts Epistemology risk management Questions to Reflect On - How do we balance statistical models with intuition? - What practices reduce blind spots in knowledge? A Different Perspective Quantitative focus can ignore qualitative aspects of risk. ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ No ratings yet [Acceptance](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/acceptance/) [Certainty](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/certainty/) [Computation](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/computation/) [Dice](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/dice/) [Ignorance](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/ignorance/) [Odds](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/odds/) [Probability](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/probability/) ## Related quotes > [If you roll dice, you know that the odds are one in six that the dice will come up on a particular side. So…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/if-you-roll-dice-you-know-that-the-odds-are-one-in-six-that-the-dice/) [Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nassim-nicholas-taleb/) > [In its efforts to learn as much as possible about nature, modern physics has found that certain things can never be "known" with certainty.…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/richard-p-feynman/in-its-efforts-to-learn-as-much-as-possible-about-nature-modern/) [Richard P. Feynman](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/richard-p-feynman/) > [“When things go our way we reject the lack of certainty.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/when-things-go-our-way-we-reject-the-lack-of-certainty/) [Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nassim-nicholas-taleb/) > [The Old Testament contains over 300 references to the Messiah that were fulfilled in Jesus Christ. Computations using the science of probability on just…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/fritz-ridenour/the-old-testament-contains-over-300-references-to-the-messiah-that/) Fritz Ridenour > [“Real life is about growing wisdom and dancing with empowering questons, as opposed to owning and hoarding the expected certainty of knowledge... which rapidly…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/tony-dovale/real-life-is-about-growing-wisdom-and-dancing-with-empowering/) [Tony Dovale](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/tony-dovale/) > [“Mortals live with lack of certainty- except for Death.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/lee-monroe/mortals-live-with-lack-of-certainty-except-for-death/) [Lee Monroe](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/lee-monroe/) > [There's something about the lack of certainty with a documentary, which is exhausting if you do three in a row. It's nerve-wracking.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/kevin-macdonald/there-s-something-about-the-lack-of-certainty-with-a-documentary/) [Kevin Macdonald](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/kevin-macdonald/) > [“Skepticism is thus a resting-place for human reason, where it can reflect upon its dogmatic wanderings and make survey of the region in which…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/immanuel-kant/skepticism-is-thus-a-resting-place-for-human-reason-where-it-can/) [Immanuel Kant](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/immanuel-kant/) > [“Albert knew that one could never be sure about magic, but a lack of certainty is not a good reason to do nothing.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/howard-l-anderson/albert-knew-that-one-could-never-be-sure-about-magic-but-a-lack-of/) Howard L. Anderson > [While the dogmatist is harmful, the sceptic is useless ...; one is certain of knowing, the other of not knowing. What philosophy should dissipate…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/bertrand-russell/while-the-dogmatist-is-harmful-the-sceptic-is-useless-one-is-certain/) [Bertrand Russell](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/bertrand-russell/) > [When man thinks in self-conscious submission to the voluntary revelation of the self-sufficient God, he has therewith the only possible ground of certainty for…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/cornelius-van-til/when-man-thinks-in-self-conscious-submission-to-the-voluntary/) [Cornelius Van Til](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/cornelius-van-til/) > [Logic is the foundation of the certainty of all the knowledge we acquire.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/leonhard-euler/logic-is-the-foundation-of-the-certainty-of-all-the-knowledge-we/) [Leonhard Euler](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/leonhard-euler/) > [“We did not evolve by precautionary living, nor by hanging back for lack or certainty.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/irv-thomas/we-did-not-evolve-by-precautionary-living-nor-by-hanging-back-for/) [Irv Thomas](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/irv-thomas/) > [The very foundation of science is to keep the door open to doubt. Precisely because we keep questioning everything, especially our own premises, we…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/carlo-rovelli/the-very-foundation-of-science-is-to-keep-the-door-open-to-doubt/) [Carlo Rovelli](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/carlo-rovelli/) > [The formula goes belief, then faith, then experience, then certainty, then knowledge, then truth, and the truth will set you free.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/anonymous/the-formula-goes-belief-then-faith-then-experience-then-certainty/) [Anonymous](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/anonymous/) ## More by Nassim Nicholas Taleb > [To become a philosopher, start by walking very slowly.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/to-become-a-philosopher-start-by-walking-very-slowly/) [Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nassim-nicholas-taleb/) > [Wittgenstein's ruler: Unless you have confidence in the ruler's reliability, if you use a ruler to measure a table you may also be using…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/wittgenstein-s-ruler-unless-you-have-confidence-in-the-ruler-s/) [Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nassim-nicholas-taleb/) > [In politics we face the choice between warmongering, nation-state loving, big-business agents on one hand; and risk-blind, top-down, epistemic arrogant big servants of large…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/in-politics-we-face-the-choice-between-warmongering-nation-state/) [Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nassim-nicholas-taleb/) > [My nightmare scenario is that the government saves Citibank once again, as well as the other banks, and business resumes as usual. Then, the…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/my-nightmare-scenario-is-that-the-government-saves-citibank-once/) [Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nassim-nicholas-taleb/) > [Using, as an excuse, others' failure of common sense is in itself a failure of common sense.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/using-as-an-excuse-others-failure-of-common-sense-is-in-itself-a/) [Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nassim-nicholas-taleb/) > [You know, children philosophize more than adults - and they are critical of adults.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/you-know-children-philosophize-more-than-adults-and-they-are-critical/) [Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nassim-nicholas-taleb/) > [“Suckers think that you cure greed with money, addiction with substances, expert problems with experts, banking with bankers, economics with economists, and debt crises…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/suckers-think-that-you-cure-greed-with-money-addiction-with/) [Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nassim-nicholas-taleb/) > [“One needs to go out and buy a lottery ticket in order to win. Does it mean that the work involved in the trip…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/one-needs-to-go-out-and-buy-a-lottery-ticket-in-order-to-win-does-it/) [Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nassim-nicholas-taleb/) > [Individuals should think about the worst-case scenarios and plan for them. The world will be crazier than you think it will be. Put money…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/individuals-should-think-about-the-worst-case-scenarios-and-plan-for/) [Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nassim-nicholas-taleb/) > [“If you are looking for your misplaced wallet in your living room, in a trial and error mode, you exercise rationality by not looking…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/if-you-are-looking-for-your-misplaced-wallet-in-your-living-room-in-a/) [Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nassim-nicholas-taleb/) > [“Most humans manage to squander their free time, as free time makes them dysfunctional, lazy, and unmotivated—the busier they get, the more active they…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/most-humans-manage-to-squander-their-free-time-as-free-time-makes/) [Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nassim-nicholas-taleb/) > [We learn the most from fools ... yet we pay them back with the worst ingratitude.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/we-learn-the-most-from-fools-yet-we-pay-them-back-with-the-worst/) [Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nassim-nicholas-taleb/) > [We are victims of the post-Enlightenment view that the world functions like a sophisticated machine, to be understood like a textbook engineering problem and…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/we-are-victims-of-the-post-enlightenment-view-that-the-world/) [Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nassim-nicholas-taleb/) > [“loss of bone density and degradation of the health of the bones also causes aging, diabetes, and, for males, loss of fertility and sexual…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/loss-of-bone-density-and-degradation-of-the-health-of-the-bones-also/) [Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nassim-nicholas-taleb/) > [“It takes a huge investment in introspection to learn that the thirty or more hours spent “studying” the news last month neither had any…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/it-takes-a-huge-investment-in-introspection-to-learn-that-the-thirty/) [Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nassim-nicholas-taleb/) [Explore all 635 Nassim Nicholas Taleb quotes ](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nassim-nicholas-taleb/) ## More Acceptance quotes > [We only enter into the full life if our faith gives thanks. Because how else do we accept His free gift of salvation if…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ann-voskamp/we-only-enter-into-the-full-life-if-our-faith-gives-thanks-because/) [Ann Voskamp](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ann-voskamp/) > [You dont choose your life; it chooses you. Theres no point asking why life has reserved certain joys or griefs, you just accept them…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/paulo-coelho/you-dont-choose-your-life-it-chooses-you-theres-no-point-asking-why/) [Paulo Coelho](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/paulo-coelho/) > [Losing someone is easy, but accepting it is hard.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/anonymous/losing-someone-is-easy-but-accepting-it-is-hard/) [Anonymous](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/anonymous/) > [When one fib becomes due as it were, you must forge another to take up the old acceptance; and so the stock of your…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/william-makepeace-thackeray/when-one-fib-becomes-due-as-it-were-you-must-forge-another-to-take-up/) [William Makepeace Thackeray](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/william-makepeace-thackeray/) > [Acceptance of death when it arrives is one thing, but to allow it to upstage the joys of living is ingratitude.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ronald-blythe/acceptance-of-death-when-it-arrives-is-one-thing-but-to-allow-it-to/) [Ronald Blythe](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ronald-blythe/) > [“Loving someone who does not love you back hurts, alot, i know. It is liking seeing these pair of shoes at the retail store…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nomthandazo-tsembeni/loving-someone-who-does-not-love-you-back-hurts-alot-i-know-it-is/) [Nomthandazo Tsembeni](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nomthandazo-tsembeni/) > [Take responsibily for your past, the bad memories of poor decisions you took were your choices once, and you liked them for the moment…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/aruho-marvin/take-responsibily-for-your-past-the-bad-memories-of-poor-decisions/) [Aruho Marvin](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/aruho-marvin/) > [Let us learn to accept and appreciate things now, and we'll find more happiness in every moment we live. Happiness comes when we stop…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/glen-rambharack/let-us-learn-to-accept-and-appreciate-things-now-and-we-ll-find-more/) [Glen Rambharack](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/glen-rambharack/) > [“Love first; ask questions later.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/jeremy-courtney/love-first-ask-questions-later/) [Jeremy Courtney](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/jeremy-courtney/) > [“There was beauty in chaos, she'd just never known it before.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/amanda-linsmeier/there-was-beauty-in-chaos-she-d-just-never-known-it-before/) [Amanda Linsmeier](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/amanda-linsmeier/) > [Accepting the challenges in life makes it interesting and overcoming them makes it eloquent.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/anonymous/accepting-the-challenges-in-life-makes-it-interesting-and-overcoming/) [Anonymous](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/anonymous/) > [Acceptance is the only thing you should teach. Be it Christian, Muslim, Hindu, Dalit, you must inculcate acceptance, not tolerance.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/kamal-haasan/acceptance-is-the-only-thing-you-should-teach-be-it-christian-muslim/) [Kamal Haasan](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/kamal-haasan/) > [There just seems to be more acceptance now of other kinds of British films, than the picture-postcard ones.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/tim-roth/there-just-seems-to-be-more-acceptance-now-of-other-kinds-of-british/) [Tim Roth](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/tim-roth/) > [You should never hate anyone, even your worst enemies. Everyone has something good about them. You have to find the redeeming quality and love…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/jeannette-walls/you-should-never-hate-anyone-even-your-worst-enemies-everyone-has/) [Jeannette Walls](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/jeannette-walls/) > [The sense that in this universe we are treated as strangers, the longing to be acknowledged, to meet with some response, to bridge some…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/anonymous/the-sense-that-in-this-universe-we-are-treated-as-strangers-the/) [Anonymous](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/anonymous/) [Browse all 3,960 Acceptance quotes ](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/acceptance/) ```json { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@graph": [ { "@type": "Quotation", "text": "Probability is not a mere computation of odds on the dice or more complicated variants; it is the acceptance of the lack of certainty in our knowledge and the development of methods for dealing with our ignorance.", "creator": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Nassim Nicholas Taleb" }, "isPartOf": { "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/#website" }, "url": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/probability-is-not-a-mere-computation-of-odds-on-the-dice-or-more/", "about": { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Acceptance" }, "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/probability-is-not-a-mere-computation-of-odds-on-the-dice-or-more/#quotation", "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/01f/nassim-nicholas-taleb-352_acceptance_probability-is-not-a-mere-computation-of_3087176.png", "contentUrl": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/01f/nassim-nicholas-taleb-352_acceptance_probability-is-not-a-mere-computation-of_3087176.png", "url": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/01f/nassim-nicholas-taleb-352_acceptance_probability-is-not-a-mere-computation-of_3087176.png", "width": 1080, "height": 1080, "caption": "“Probability is not a mere computation of odds on the dice or more complicated variants; it is the acceptance…” — Nassim Nicholas Taleb", "creditText": "SMS4Smile Quotes", "creator": { "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/#organization" } } }, { "@type": "BreadcrumbList", "itemListElement": [ { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 1, "name": "Home", "item": "https://sms4smile.com/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 2, "name": "Quotes", "item": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 3, "name": "Nassim Nicholas Taleb", "item": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nassim-nicholas-taleb/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 4, "name": "Probability is not a mere computation...", "item": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/probability-is-not-a-mere-computation-of-odds-on-the-dice-or-more/" } ], "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/probability-is-not-a-mere-computation-of-odds-on-the-dice-or-more/#breadcrumb" }, { "@type": "WebSite", "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/#website", "name": "SMS4Smile Quotes", "url": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/", "publisher": { "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/#organization" } }, { "@type": "Organization", "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/#organization", "name": "SMS4Smile Quotes", "url": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/", "logo": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/wp-content/themes/sq/assets/icons/icon-512.png", "width": 512, "height": 512 } } ] } ```