--- title: "Meaning & Key Takeaway of: It's not a good idea to take a forecast…" description: "\"It's not a good idea to take a forecast from someone wearing a tie. If possible, tease people who take themselves and their knowledge too seriously.\" —..." image: "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/4ba/nassim-nicholas-taleb-352_forecasts_it-s-not-a-good-idea-to-take-a-forecast_677020.png" --- # It's not a good idea to take a forecast from someone… ![“It's not a good idea to take a forecast from someone wearing a tie. If possible, tease people who take themselves and their knowledge too seriously.” quote by Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/4ba/nassim-nicholas-taleb-352_forecasts_it-s-not-a-good-idea-to-take-a-forecast_677020.png) [Download](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/4ba/nassim-nicholas-taleb-352_forecasts_it-s-not-a-good-idea-to-take-a-forecast_677020.png) [Open image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/4ba/nassim-nicholas-taleb-352_forecasts_it-s-not-a-good-idea-to-take-a-forecast_677020.png) > “It's not a good idea to take a forecast from someone wearing a tie. If possible, tease people who take themselves and their knowledge too seriously.” [Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nassim-nicholas-taleb/) ## About This Quote This interpretation was drafted with AI assistance. It is one reading of the quote, not the author's own explanation. Expert predictions are unreliable, especially when the predictor appears overly formal or confident. **In simple terms:** Don't trust forecasts from overly formal experts. Key Takeaway Question authority and seek diverse viewpoints. Themes skepticism prediction expertise Mood critical inquisitive Type advice philosophical When to use this quote - financial markets - weather forecasting - policy making - health advice Key Concepts cognitive bias overconfidence Questions to Reflect On - When have you trusted a formal expert? - What signs indicate genuine expertise? A Different Perspective Some experts may have valuable insights despite appearance. ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ No ratings yet [Good ideas](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/good-ideas/) [Ideas](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/ideas/) [Knowledge](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/knowledge/) [People](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/people/) [Ties](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/ties/) [Weather](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/weather/) ## Related quotes > [Never take advice from someone wearing a tie.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/never-take-advice-from-someone-wearing-a-tie/) [Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nassim-nicholas-taleb/) > [I like to tease people. I hate when people do it to me, though.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/charlie-murphy/i-like-to-tease-people-i-hate-when-people-do-it-to-me-though/) [Charlie Murphy](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/charlie-murphy/) > [I love to have a laugh. I like to tease people.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/anthony-hopkins/i-love-to-have-a-laugh-i-like-to-tease-people/) [Anthony Hopkins](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/anthony-hopkins/) > [Personally, I just tease people a lot.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/alex-meraz/personally-i-just-tease-people-a-lot/) [Alex Meraz](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/alex-meraz/) > [Mayweather does tease people all the time. He likes to get under your skin. That's what he's like.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/amir-khan/mayweather-does-tease-people-all-the-time-he-likes-to-get-under-your/) [Amir Khan](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/amir-khan/) > [It's fun to tease people about where fiction and life intersect.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/dorothy-allison/it-s-fun-to-tease-people-about-where-fiction-and-life-intersect/) [Dorothy Allison](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/dorothy-allison/) > [People who forecast simply because "that's my job," knowing pretty well that their forecast is ineffectual, are not what I would call ethical. What…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/people-who-forecast-simply-because-that-s-my-job-knowing-pretty-well/) [Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nassim-nicholas-taleb/) > [A professor I had in college used to tell me that if someone won’t listen to what you have to say because you’re not…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/joe-mcnally/a-professor-i-had-in-college-used-to-tell-me-that-if-someone-won-t/) [Joe McNally](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/joe-mcnally/) > [I'm always an agent or a lawyer or a doctor or a banker. I'm always wearing a tie.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/peter-jacobson/i-m-always-an-agent-or-a-lawyer-or-a-doctor-or-a-banker-i-m-always/) [Peter Jacobson](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/peter-jacobson/) > [I'm not a psychopath-I'm wearing a tie!](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/seth-godin/i-m-not-a-psychopath-i-m-wearing-a-tie/) [Seth Godin](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/seth-godin/) > [I remember Louis van Gaal wearing a tie for every press conference. It must have left an impression because I like to look smart…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/scott-parker/i-remember-louis-van-gaal-wearing-a-tie-for-every-press-conference-it/) [Scott Parker](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/scott-parker/) > [People would say you look weak if you're not cursing the opposition and driving around in a big black car while always wearing a…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/george-papandreou/people-would-say-you-look-weak-if-you-re-not-cursing-the-opposition/) [George Papandreou](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/george-papandreou/) > [I always dressed as a man when I was at school. I loved wearing a tie and a shirt, and I was always wearing…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/cate-blanchett/i-always-dressed-as-a-man-when-i-was-at-school-i-loved-wearing-a-tie/) [Cate Blanchett](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/cate-blanchett/) > [I like the fact that Jack is always wearing a tie except when he's on a mission. I do like it when I get…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/victor-garber/i-like-the-fact-that-jack-is-always-wearing-a-tie-except-when-he-s-on/) [Victor Garber](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/victor-garber/) > [That's all life is, I guess. Just a bunch of riffs. Look at me: I'm wearing a tie. Why am I wearing a tie?…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/raphael-bob-waksberg/that-s-all-life-is-i-guess-just-a-bunch-of-riffs-look-at-me-i-m/) [Raphael Bob-Waksberg](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/raphael-bob-waksberg/) ## More by Nassim Nicholas Taleb > [To become a philosopher, start by walking very slowly.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/to-become-a-philosopher-start-by-walking-very-slowly/) [Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nassim-nicholas-taleb/) > [Wittgenstein's ruler: Unless you have confidence in the ruler's reliability, if you use a ruler to measure a table you may also be using…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/wittgenstein-s-ruler-unless-you-have-confidence-in-the-ruler-s/) [Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nassim-nicholas-taleb/) > [In politics we face the choice between warmongering, nation-state loving, big-business agents on one hand; and risk-blind, top-down, epistemic arrogant big servants of large…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/in-politics-we-face-the-choice-between-warmongering-nation-state/) [Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nassim-nicholas-taleb/) > [My nightmare scenario is that the government saves Citibank once again, as well as the other banks, and business resumes as usual. Then, the…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/my-nightmare-scenario-is-that-the-government-saves-citibank-once/) [Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nassim-nicholas-taleb/) > [Using, as an excuse, others' failure of common sense is in itself a failure of common sense.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/using-as-an-excuse-others-failure-of-common-sense-is-in-itself-a/) [Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nassim-nicholas-taleb/) > [You know, children philosophize more than adults - and they are critical of adults.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/you-know-children-philosophize-more-than-adults-and-they-are-critical/) [Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nassim-nicholas-taleb/) > [“Suckers think that you cure greed with money, addiction with substances, expert problems with experts, banking with bankers, economics with economists, and debt crises…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/suckers-think-that-you-cure-greed-with-money-addiction-with/) [Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nassim-nicholas-taleb/) > [“One needs to go out and buy a lottery ticket in order to win. Does it mean that the work involved in the trip…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/one-needs-to-go-out-and-buy-a-lottery-ticket-in-order-to-win-does-it/) [Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nassim-nicholas-taleb/) > [Individuals should think about the worst-case scenarios and plan for them. The world will be crazier than you think it will be. Put money…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/individuals-should-think-about-the-worst-case-scenarios-and-plan-for/) [Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nassim-nicholas-taleb/) > [“If you are looking for your misplaced wallet in your living room, in a trial and error mode, you exercise rationality by not looking…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/if-you-are-looking-for-your-misplaced-wallet-in-your-living-room-in-a/) [Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nassim-nicholas-taleb/) > [“Most humans manage to squander their free time, as free time makes them dysfunctional, lazy, and unmotivated—the busier they get, the more active they…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/most-humans-manage-to-squander-their-free-time-as-free-time-makes/) [Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nassim-nicholas-taleb/) > [We learn the most from fools ... yet we pay them back with the worst ingratitude.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/we-learn-the-most-from-fools-yet-we-pay-them-back-with-the-worst/) [Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nassim-nicholas-taleb/) > [We are victims of the post-Enlightenment view that the world functions like a sophisticated machine, to be understood like a textbook engineering problem and…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/we-are-victims-of-the-post-enlightenment-view-that-the-world/) [Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nassim-nicholas-taleb/) > [“loss of bone density and degradation of the health of the bones also causes aging, diabetes, and, for males, loss of fertility and sexual…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/loss-of-bone-density-and-degradation-of-the-health-of-the-bones-also/) [Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nassim-nicholas-taleb/) > [“It takes a huge investment in introspection to learn that the thirty or more hours spent “studying” the news last month neither had any…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/nassim-nicholas-taleb/it-takes-a-huge-investment-in-introspection-to-learn-that-the-thirty/) [Nassim Nicholas Taleb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nassim-nicholas-taleb/) [Explore all 635 Nassim Nicholas Taleb quotes ](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/nassim-nicholas-taleb/) ## More Forecasts quotes > [Weathermen merely forecast rain to keep everyone else off the golf course](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/larry-david/weathermen-merely-forecast-rain-to-keep-everyone-else-off-the-golf/) [Larry David](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/larry-david/) > [It's impossible for us to forecast what's going to happen ten years from now and make a decision today to say what we're going…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/charles-rangel/it-s-impossible-for-us-to-forecast-what-s-going-to-happen-ten-years/) [Charles Rangel](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/charles-rangel/) > [The federal government is starting to plan for climate change by making extended forecasts that can help people plan for extreme weather - because…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/jimmy-fallon/the-federal-government-is-starting-to-plan-for-climate-change-by/) [Jimmy Fallon](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/jimmy-fallon/) > [Confidence in a forecast rises with the amount of information that goes into it. But the accuracy of the forecast stays the same.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/dean-williams/confidence-in-a-forecast-rises-with-the-amount-of-information-that/) Dean Williams > [A commonplace of political rhetoric has it that the quality of a civilization may be measured by how it cares for its elderly. Just…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/daniel-patrick-moynihan/a-commonplace-of-political-rhetoric-has-it-that-the-quality-of-a/) [Daniel Patrick Moynihan](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/daniel-patrick-moynihan/) > ["(Big name research firm) says our market will be $50 billion in 2010." Every entrepreneur has a few slides about how the market potential…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/guy-kawasaki/big-name-research-firm-says-our-market-will-be-50-billion-in-2010/) [Guy Kawasaki](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/guy-kawasaki/) > [There are poems about the internet and about the shipping forecast but very few by women celebrating men.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/germaine-greer/there-are-poems-about-the-internet-and-about-the-shipping-forecast/) [Germaine Greer](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/germaine-greer/) > [I find my past in my present, and from these forecast my future.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/amos-bronson-alcott/i-find-my-past-in-my-present-and-from-these-forecast-my-future/) [Amos Bronson Alcott](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/amos-bronson-alcott/) > [Hope differs from optimism. Hope does not arise from being told to "think positively," or from hearing an overly rosy forecast. Hope, unlike optimism,…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/jerome-groopman/hope-differs-from-optimism-hope-does-not-arise-from-being-told-to/) [Jerome Groopman](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/jerome-groopman/) > [I once read about a meeting of economists who agreed that if their forecasts were 33 1/3 % correct, that was considered a high…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/gerald-m-loeb/i-once-read-about-a-meeting-of-economists-who-agreed-that-if-their/) [Gerald M. Loeb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/gerald-m-loeb/) > [Saudi Arabian oil production is at or very near its peak sustainable volume (if it did not, in fact peak almost 25 years ago),…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/matthew-simmons/saudi-arabian-oil-production-is-at-or-very-near-its-peak-sustainable/) Matthew Simmons > [Dont tell me dreams, or expectations, or forecasts. Just tell me the facts, and the truth. I want to know exactly where we stand.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/anonymous/dont-tell-me-dreams-or-expectations-or-forecasts-just-tell-me-the/) [Anonymous](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/anonymous/) > [One of the soundest rules to remember when making forecasts in the field of economics is that whatever is to happen is happening already.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/sylvia-porter/one-of-the-soundest-rules-to-remember-when-making-forecasts-in-the/) [Sylvia Porter](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/sylvia-porter/) > [The MD is well aware that the forecasts are no good but he needs them for planning purposes ...](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/kenneth-arrow/the-md-is-well-aware-that-the-forecasts-are-no-good-but-he-needs-them/) [Kenneth Arrow](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/kenneth-arrow/) > [Laughter on American television has taken the place of the chorus in Greek tragedy. It is unrelenting; the news, the stock-exchange reports, and the…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/jean-baudrillard/laughter-on-american-television-has-taken-the-place-of-the-chorus-in/) [Jean Baudrillard](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/jean-baudrillard/) Browse all 107 Forecasts quotes ```json { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@graph": [ { "@type": "Quotation", "text": "It's not a good idea to take a forecast from someone wearing a tie. 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