---
title: "Meaning & Key Takeaway of: I believe the calculation of the quantity…"
description: "\"I believe the calculation of the quantity of probability might be improved to a very useful and pleasant speculation, and applied to a great many event..."
image: "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/77c/john-arbuthnot-18374_believe_i-believe-the-calculation-of-the-quantit_1158289.png"
---

#  I believe the calculation of the quantity of probability…

![“I believe the calculation of the quantity of probability might be improved to a very useful and pleasant speculation, and applied to a great many events which are accidental, besides those of games; only these cases would be infinitely more confused, as depending on chances which the most part of…” quote by John Arbuthnot](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/77c/john-arbuthnot-18374_believe_i-believe-the-calculation-of-the-quantit_1158289.png)   [Download](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/77c/john-arbuthnot-18374_believe_i-believe-the-calculation-of-the-quantit_1158289.png) [Open image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/77c/john-arbuthnot-18374_believe_i-believe-the-calculation-of-the-quantit_1158289.png)

> “I believe the calculation of the quantity of probability might be improved to a very useful and pleasant speculation, and applied to a great many events which are accidental, besides those of games; only these cases would be infinitely more confused, as depending on chances which the most part of men are ignorant of.”

[John Arbuthnot](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/john-arbuthnot/)

## About This Quote

This interpretation was drafted with AI assistance. It is one reading of the quote, not the author's own explanation.

Suggests improving probability calculations for everyday events, noting widespread ignorance of chance

**In simple terms:** Better odds estimates could clarify many random events

Key Takeaway

Improve understanding of chance in daily life

Themes

probability ignorance statistics

Mood

analytical curious

Type

philosophical educational

When to use this quote

- gambling
- weather forecasting
- medical risk
- financial planning

Key Concepts

risk assessment mathematics philosophy of science

Questions to Reflect On

- Can we ever fully predict random events?
- How does ignorance of chance affect decisions?

A Different Perspective

Probability models can’t capture all complexities of real life

★ ★ ★ ★ ★   No ratings yet

[Believe](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/believe/) [Calculations](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/calculations/) [Cases](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/cases/) [Chance](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/chance/) [Confused](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/confused/) [Events](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/events/) [Games](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/games/) [Great man](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/great-man/) [Great men](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/great-men/) [I believe](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/i-believe/) [Ignorant](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/ignorant/) [Men](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/men/) [Might](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/might/) [Pleasant](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/pleasant/) [Pleasant Speculation](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/pleasant-speculation-3305559/) [Probability](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/probability/) [Probability Improved](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/probability-improved-3305556/) [Quantity](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/quantity/) [Quantity Probability](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/quantity-probability-3305558/) [Speculation](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/speculation/) [Speculation Applied](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/speculation-applied-3305557/) [Would be](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/would-be/)

## Related quotes

> [All the politics in the world are nothing else but a kind of analysis of the quantity of probability in casual events, and a…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/john-arbuthnot/all-the-politics-in-the-world-are-nothing-else-but-a-kind-of-analysis/)

[John Arbuthnot](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/john-arbuthnot/)

> [As I'm getting older, I'm moving away from calculations and measurement. I'm trying to be more open to vulnerability and mistakes.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/micah-lexier/as-i-m-getting-older-i-m-moving-away-from-calculations-and/)

[Micah Lexier](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/micah-lexier/)

> [Washington is a place where men praise courage and act on elaborate personal cost-benefit calculations.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/john-kenneth-galbraith/washington-is-a-place-where-men-praise-courage-and-act-on-elaborate/)

[John Kenneth Galbraith](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/john-kenneth-galbraith/)

> [All conventional wisdom has an element of truth to it, but good design requires more than an element of truth - it requires an…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/henry-petroski/all-conventional-wisdom-has-an-element-of-truth-to-it-but-good-design/)

[Henry Petroski](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/henry-petroski/)

> [Deaths, births, and marriages, considering how much they are separately dependent on the freedom of the human will, should seem to be subject to…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/immanuel-kant/deaths-births-and-marriages-considering-how-much-they-are-separately/)

[Immanuel Kant](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/immanuel-kant/)

> [There is a small segment of people with autism that have savant skills, where they can memorize entire maps of whole entire city. They…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/temple-grandin/there-is-a-small-segment-of-people-with-autism-that-have-savant/)

[Temple Grandin](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/temple-grandin/)

> [The best calculation is the absence of calculation. Once you have attained a certain level of recognition, others generally figure that when you do…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/pablo-picasso/the-best-calculation-is-the-absence-of-calculation-once-you-have/)

[Pablo Picasso](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/pablo-picasso/)

> [“Those who are unacquainted with the details of scientific investigation have no idea of the amount of labour expended in the determination of those…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/john-tyndall/those-who-are-unacquainted-with-the-details-of-scientific/)

[John Tyndall](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/john-tyndall/)

> [...the science of calculation also is indispensable as far as the extraction of the square and cube roots: Algebra as far as the quadratic…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/thomas-jefferson/the-science-of-calculation-also-is-indispensable-as-far-as-the/)

[Thomas Jefferson](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/thomas-jefferson/)

> [It was basic research in the photoelectric field-in the photoelectric effect that would one day lead to solar panels. It was basic research in…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/barack-obama/it-was-basic-research-in-the-photoelectric-field-in-the-photoelectric/)

[Barack Obama](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/barack-obama/)

> [Losses of a kind of satisfaction that have no market equivalent don't show up in the calculations of economists.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ivan-illich/losses-of-a-kind-of-satisfaction-that-have-no-market-equivalent-don-t/)

[Ivan Illich](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ivan-illich/)

> [It was so simple to paint things as I saw them; to put without special calculation a red close to a blue.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/paul-gauguin/it-was-so-simple-to-paint-things-as-i-saw-them-to-put-without-special/)

[Paul Gauguin](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/paul-gauguin/)

> [Without calculation, economic activity is impossible. Since under Socialism economic calculation is impossible, under Socialism there can be no economic activity in our sense…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ludwig-von-mises/without-calculation-economic-activity-is-impossible-since-under/)

[Ludwig von Mises](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ludwig-von-mises/)

> [No theory about our bodies as mere objects of observation and calculation (as distinct from partners in communicative interaction, assumed to be free) can…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/allen-w-wood/no-theory-about-our-bodies-as-mere-objects-of-observation-and/)

[Allen W. Wood](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/allen-w-wood/)

> [Cold calculation, random spots of color, mathematically exact construction (clearly shown or concealed), drawing that is now silent and now strident . . .…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/giacomo-puccini/cold-calculation-random-spots-of-color-mathematically-exact/)

[Giacomo Puccini](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/giacomo-puccini/)

## More by John Arbuthnot

> [The dumpling is indeed of more ancient institution, and of foreign origin; but alas, what were those dumplings? Nothing but a few lentils sodden…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/john-arbuthnot/the-dumpling-is-indeed-of-more-ancient-institution-and-of-foreign/)

[John Arbuthnot](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/john-arbuthnot/)

> [John looked ruddy and plump, with a pair of cheeks like a trumpeter.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/john-arbuthnot/john-looked-ruddy-and-plump-with-a-pair-of-cheeks-like-a-trumpeter/)

[John Arbuthnot](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/john-arbuthnot/)

> [All the politics in the world are nothing else but a kind of analysis of the quantity of probability in casual events, and a…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/john-arbuthnot/all-the-politics-in-the-world-are-nothing-else-but-a-kind-of-analysis/)

[John Arbuthnot](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/john-arbuthnot/)

> [The Mathematics are Friends to Religion; inasmuch as they charm the Passions, restrain the Impetuosity of Imagination, and purge the Mind from Error and…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/john-arbuthnot/the-mathematics-are-friends-to-religion-inasmuch-as-they-charm-the/)

[John Arbuthnot](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/john-arbuthnot/)

> [What I have said may serve to recommend mathematics for acquiring a vigorous constitution of mind; for which purpose they are as useful as…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/john-arbuthnot/what-i-have-said-may-serve-to-recommend-mathematics-for-acquiring-a/)

[John Arbuthnot](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/john-arbuthnot/)

> [Unjust force can never give any just dominion.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/john-arbuthnot/unjust-force-can-never-give-any-just-dominion/)

[John Arbuthnot](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/john-arbuthnot/)

> [The Reader may here observe the Force of Numbers, which can be successfully applied, even to those things, which one would imagine are subject…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/john-arbuthnot/the-reader-may-here-observe-the-force-of-numbers-which-can-be/)

[John Arbuthnot](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/john-arbuthnot/)

> [To bliss unknown by lofty soul aspires, My lot unequal to my vast desires.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/john-arbuthnot/to-bliss-unknown-by-lofty-soul-aspires-my-lot-unequal-to-my-vast/)

[John Arbuthnot](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/john-arbuthnot/)

> [Almighty Power, by whose most wise command, helpless, forlorn, uncertain, here I stand, take this faint glimmer of thyself away, or break into my…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/john-arbuthnot/almighty-power-by-whose-most-wise-command-helpless-forlorn-uncertain/)

[John Arbuthnot](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/john-arbuthnot/)

> [The Mathematics are Friends to Religion, inasmuch as they charm the Passions, restrain the Impetuosity of the Imagination, and purge the Mind from Error…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/john-arbuthnot/the-mathematics-are-friends-to-religion-inasmuch-as-they-charm-the-2/)

[John Arbuthnot](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/john-arbuthnot/)

> [King is a title which translated into several languages, signifies a magistrate with as many different degrees of power as there are kingdoms in…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/john-arbuthnot/king-is-a-title-which-translated-into-several-languages-signifies-a/)

[John Arbuthnot](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/john-arbuthnot/)

> [Among innumerable footsteps of divine providence to be found in the works of nature, there is a very remarkable one to be observed in…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/john-arbuthnot/among-innumerable-footsteps-of-divine-providence-to-be-found-in-the/)

[John Arbuthnot](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/john-arbuthnot/)

> [The mathematics are the friends of religion, inasmuch as they charm the passions, restrain the impetuosity of the imagination, and purge the mind of…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/john-arbuthnot/the-mathematics-are-the-friends-of-religion-inasmuch-as-they-charm/)

[John Arbuthnot](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/john-arbuthnot/)

> [The dumpling-eaters are a race sprung partly from the old Epicurean and partly from the Peripatetic Sect; they were first brought into Britain by…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/john-arbuthnot/the-dumpling-eaters-are-a-race-sprung-partly-from-the-old-epicurean/)

[John Arbuthnot](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/john-arbuthnot/)

> [Truth is the same thing to the understanding, as Music to the ear, and Beauty to the eye.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/john-arbuthnot/truth-is-the-same-thing-to-the-understanding-as-music-to-the-ear-and/)

[John Arbuthnot](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/john-arbuthnot/)

[Explore all 35 John Arbuthnot quotes ](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/john-arbuthnot/)

## More Believe quotes

> [I actually think acting is a form of self-hypnosis. You have to be hyper, hyper aware of what's going on around you. You have…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/julianne-moore/i-actually-think-acting-is-a-form-of-self-hypnosis-you-have-to-be/)

[Julianne Moore](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/julianne-moore/)

> [Some people still believe you should just fall in line with what's going on - and that's scary. It makes a mockery of freedom…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/emily-robison/some-people-still-believe-you-should-just-fall-in-line-with-what-s/)

[Emily Robison](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/emily-robison/)

> [The truth seems to be that propaganda on its own cannot force its way into unwilling minds; neither can it inculcate something wholly new;…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/eric-hoffer/the-truth-seems-to-be-that-propaganda-on-its-own-cannot-force-its-way/)

[Eric Hoffer](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/eric-hoffer/)

> [Resist discouragement by speaking His Word over your future. Keep standing. Keep hoping; keep believing because He is working behind the scenes. He's going…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/joel-osteen/resist-discouragement-by-speaking-his-word-over-your-future-keep/)

[Joel Osteen](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/joel-osteen/)

> [I can't believe that I'm sitting in meetings with Steven Spielberg, Tom Hanks, and Annette Bening. I want to take on that responsibility to…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/roger-ross-williams/i-can-t-believe-that-i-m-sitting-in-meetings-with-steven-spielberg/)

[Roger Ross Williams](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/roger-ross-williams/)

> [There is no such word as item girl in the dictionary. People have created this word and I don't believe that I am an…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/shefali-zariwala/there-is-no-such-word-as-item-girl-in-the-dictionary-people-have/)

[Shefali Zariwala](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/shefali-zariwala/)

> [I understand that it's the music that keeps me alive... That's my lifeblood. And to give that up for, like, the TV, the cars,…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/bruce-springsteen/i-understand-that-it-s-the-music-that-keeps-me-alive-that-s-my/)

[Bruce Springsteen](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/bruce-springsteen/)

> [I don't really like too much credit. I know nobody's going to believe this, but I'd rather be able to score goals and nobody…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/bradley-wright-phillips/i-don-t-really-like-too-much-credit-i-know-nobody-s-going-to-believe/)

[Bradley Wright-Phillips](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/bradley-wright-phillips/)

> [“What I have a problem with is not so much religion or god, but faith. When you say you believe something in your heart…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/penn-jillette/what-i-have-a-problem-with-is-not-so-much-religion-or-god-but-faith/)

[Penn Jillette](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/penn-jillette/)

> [Bush reiterated his stand to conservatives opposing his decision on stem cell research. He said today he believes life begins at conception and ends…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/jay-leno/bush-reiterated-his-stand-to-conservatives-opposing-his-decision-on/)

[Jay Leno](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/jay-leno/)

> [Never underestimate the power of the human mind to believe what it wants to believe, no matter the conflicting evidence.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/brian-herbert/never-underestimate-the-power-of-the-human-mind-to-believe-what-it/)

[Brian Herbert](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/brian-herbert/)

> [To believe in love, to be ready to give up anything for it, to be willing to risk your life for it, is the…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/leonardo-dicaprio/to-believe-in-love-to-be-ready-to-give-up-anything-for-it-to-be/)

[Leonardo DiCaprio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/leonardo-dicaprio/)

> [That's why I don't generally talk about endorsements because I don't believe we have to tell people who to vote for.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/martin-luther-king-iii/that-s-why-i-don-t-generally-talk-about-endorsements-because-i-don-t/)

[Martin Luther King III](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/martin-luther-king-iii/)

> [Mankind have been slow to believe that order reigns in the universe-that the world is a cosmos and a chaos.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/james-a-garfield/mankind-have-been-slow-to-believe-that-order-reigns-in-the-universe/)

[James A. Garfield](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/james-a-garfield/)

> [We instantly believe everything we think. Isn't that insane? It's good for us to explore the depravity of our minds, so we know we…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/krishna-das/we-instantly-believe-everything-we-think-isn-t-that-insane-it-s-good/)

[Krishna Das](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/krishna-das/)

[Browse all 47,704 Believe quotes ](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/believe/)

```json
{
    "@context": "https://schema.org",
    "@graph": [
        {
            "@type": "Quotation",
            "text": "I believe the calculation of the quantity of probability might be improved to a very useful and pleasant speculation, and applied to a great many events which are accidental, besides those of games; only these cases would be infinitely more confused, as depending on chances which the most part of men are ignorant of.",
            "creator": {
                "@type": "Person",
                "name": "John Arbuthnot"
            },
            "isPartOf": {
                "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/#website"
            },
            "url": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/john-arbuthnot/i-believe-the-calculation-of-the-quantity-of-probability-might-be/",
            "about": {
                "@type": "Thing",
                "name": "Believe"
            },
            "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/john-arbuthnot/i-believe-the-calculation-of-the-quantity-of-probability-might-be/#quotation",
            "image": {
                "@type": "ImageObject",
                "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/77c/john-arbuthnot-18374_believe_i-believe-the-calculation-of-the-quantit_1158289.png",
                "contentUrl": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/77c/john-arbuthnot-18374_believe_i-believe-the-calculation-of-the-quantit_1158289.png",
                "url": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/77c/john-arbuthnot-18374_believe_i-believe-the-calculation-of-the-quantit_1158289.png",
                "width": 1080,
                "height": 1080,
                "caption": "“I believe the calculation of the quantity of probability might be improved to a very useful and pleasant…” — John Arbuthnot",
                "creditText": "SMS4Smile Quotes",
                "creator": {
                    "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/#organization"
                }
            }
        },
        {
            "@type": "BreadcrumbList",
            "itemListElement": [
                {
                    "@type": "ListItem",
                    "position": 1,
                    "name": "Home",
                    "item": "https://sms4smile.com/"
                },
                {
                    "@type": "ListItem",
                    "position": 2,
                    "name": "Quotes",
                    "item": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/"
                },
                {
                    "@type": "ListItem",
                    "position": 3,
                    "name": "John Arbuthnot",
                    "item": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/john-arbuthnot/"
                },
                {
                    "@type": "ListItem",
                    "position": 4,
                    "name": "I believe the calculation of the...",
                    "item": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/john-arbuthnot/i-believe-the-calculation-of-the-quantity-of-probability-might-be/"
                }
            ],
            "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/john-arbuthnot/i-believe-the-calculation-of-the-quantity-of-probability-might-be/#breadcrumb"
        },
        {
            "@type": "WebSite",
            "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/#website",
            "name": "SMS4Smile Quotes",
            "url": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/",
            "publisher": {
                "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/#organization"
            }
        },
        {
            "@type": "Organization",
            "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/#organization",
            "name": "SMS4Smile Quotes",
            "url": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/",
            "logo": {
                "@type": "ImageObject",
                "url": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/wp-content/themes/sq/assets/icons/icon-512.png",
                "width": 512,
                "height": 512
            }
        }
    ]
}
```
