--- title: "Meaning & Key Takeaway of: If you didn't predict that something…" description: "\"“If you didn't predict that something would happen, if it took you completely by surprise, then what you believed about the world when you didn't see i..." image: "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/974/eliezer-yudkowsky-1207_predict_if-you-didn-t-predict-that-something-wou_2958066.png" --- # If you didn't predict that something would happen, if it… ![“If you didn't predict that something would happen, if it took you completely by surprise, then what you believed about the world when you didn't see it coming, isn't enough to explain [what has happened].” quote by Eliezer Yudkowsky](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/974/eliezer-yudkowsky-1207_predict_if-you-didn-t-predict-that-something-wou_2958066.png) [Download](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/974/eliezer-yudkowsky-1207_predict_if-you-didn-t-predict-that-something-wou_2958066.png) [Open image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/974/eliezer-yudkowsky-1207_predict_if-you-didn-t-predict-that-something-wou_2958066.png) > ““If you didn't predict that something would happen, if it took you completely by surprise, then what you believed about the world when you didn't see it coming, isn't enough to explain \[what has happened\].”” [Eliezer Yudkowsky](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/eliezer-yudkowsky/) ## About This Quote This interpretation was drafted with AI assistance. It is one reading of the quote, not the author's own explanation. Unexpected events expose gaps in our mental models, showing our beliefs may be insufficient. **In simple terms:** Surprises reveal flaws in our worldview. Key Takeaway Update beliefs when surprised. Themes uncertainty prediction learning Mood analytical curious Type philosophical inspirational When to use this quote - risk assessment - scientific research - personal decision making - crisis response Key Concepts cognitive science epistemology Questions to Reflect On - What assumptions did you hold before the surprise? - How can you improve your predictive models? A Different Perspective Overreliance on predictions can cause blind spots. ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ No ratings yet [Didn Predict](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/didn-predict-4490767/) [Predict](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/predict/) [Predict Happen](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/predict-happen-566351/) [Rationality](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/rationality/) [Surprise](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/surprise/) [Surprise Believed](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/surprise-believed-4490766/) ## Related quotes > [I've learned that you can never predict what will happen to a film. You can never predict if people will love it, if they'll…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/james-gray/i-ve-learned-that-you-can-never-predict-what-will-happen-to-a-film/) [James Gray](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/james-gray/) > [We humans can look deep into future and predict what will happen, but then turn around and do nothing about it.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/daniel-gilbert/we-humans-can-look-deep-into-future-and-predict-what-will-happen-but/) [Daniel Gilbert](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/daniel-gilbert/) > [I don't make plans for my future. I have learned that you cannot predict what will happen.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/samir-nasri/i-don-t-make-plans-for-my-future-i-have-learned-that-you-cannot/) [Samir Nasri](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/samir-nasri/) > [The problem in cinema is that you can never predict what will happen.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/denis-villeneuve/the-problem-in-cinema-is-that-you-can-never-predict-what-will-happen/) [Denis Villeneuve](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/denis-villeneuve/) > [You can never predict what will happen next no matter how much you anticipate the situation.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/anonymous/you-can-never-predict-what-will-happen-next-no-matter-how-much-you/) [Anonymous](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/anonymous/) > [Science fiction does not attempt to predict. It extrapolates. It just says, "What if?" not what will be? Because you can never predict what…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/arthur-c-clarke/science-fiction-does-not-attempt-to-predict-it-extrapolates-it-just/) [Arthur C. Clarke](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/arthur-c-clarke/) > [I never try to predict what will happen to any project, ever. There are so many factors. Does the public like the subject matter,…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/leslie-bricusse/i-never-try-to-predict-what-will-happen-to-any-project-ever-there-are/) [Leslie Bricusse](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/leslie-bricusse/) > [You can never predict what will happen in the future.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/eddie-howe/you-can-never-predict-what-will-happen-in-the-future/) [Eddie Howe](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/eddie-howe/) > [If you stay in the attention you are in, then you can predict everything that will happen to you for the rest of your…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/frederick-lenz/if-you-stay-in-the-attention-you-are-in-then-you-can-predict/) [Frederick Lenz](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/frederick-lenz/) > [You could never predict what would happen. There was an element of destiny in everything that one could never account for.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/danielle-steel/you-could-never-predict-what-would-happen-there-was-an-element-of/) [Danielle Steel](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/danielle-steel/) > [We can not predict what will happen tomorrow, but we can prepare ourselves to face it.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ophelia-callens/we-can-not-predict-what-will-happen-tomorrow-but-we-can-prepare/) [Ophelia Callens](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ophelia-callens/) > [It's hard to predict what will happen with two brands in a market. Sometimes they will behave in a gentlemanly way, and sometimes they'll…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/charlie-munger/it-s-hard-to-predict-what-will-happen-with-two-brands-in-a-market/) [Charlie Munger](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/charlie-munger/) > [I don't really try to predict what can and will happen with things. Sometimes you think something's gonna be a huge success, and it…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/donna-summer/i-don-t-really-try-to-predict-what-can-and-will-happen-with-things/) [Donna Summer](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/donna-summer/) > [I am not a prophet; I cannot predict what will happen.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/zygmunt-bauman/i-am-not-a-prophet-i-cannot-predict-what-will-happen/) [Zygmunt Bauman](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/zygmunt-bauman/) > [When something happens people didn't predict, they find ways to explain it as if it were predictable.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/michael-lewis/when-something-happens-people-didn-t-predict-they-find-ways-to/) [Michael Lewis](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/michael-lewis/) ## More by Eliezer Yudkowsky > [“But I really am Ravenclaw, you know, not Slytherin. I don't want to rule the universe. I just think it could be more sensibly…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/eliezer-yudkowsky/but-i-really-am-ravenclaw-you-know-not-slytherin-i-don-t-want-to-rule/) [Eliezer Yudkowsky](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/eliezer-yudkowsky/) > [“‎If you regard evidence as a constraint and seek to free yourself, you sell yourself into the chains of your whims. For you cannot…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/eliezer-yudkowsky/if-you-regard-evidence-as-a-constraint-and-seek-to-free-yourself-you/) [Eliezer Yudkowsky](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/eliezer-yudkowsky/) > [“I am not sure how to explain it, except that - truth matters to us.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/eliezer-yudkowsky/i-am-not-sure-how-to-explain-it-except-that-truth-matters-to-us/) [Eliezer Yudkowsky](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/eliezer-yudkowsky/) > [I see little hope for democracy as an effective form of government, but I admire the poetry of how it makes its victims complicit…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/eliezer-yudkowsky/i-see-little-hope-for-democracy-as-an-effective-form-of-government/) [Eliezer Yudkowsky](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/eliezer-yudkowsky/) > [“He really really really shouldn't have done that. Amazing how much more obvious that became one second after it was too late.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/eliezer-yudkowsky/he-really-really-really-shouldn-t-have-done-that-amazing-how-much/) [Eliezer Yudkowsky](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/eliezer-yudkowsky/) > [I'm wondering if there's a spell to make lightning flash in the background whenever I make an ominous resolution.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/eliezer-yudkowsky/i-m-wondering-if-there-s-a-spell-to-make-lightning-flash-in-the/) [Eliezer Yudkowsky](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/eliezer-yudkowsky/) > [“There’s a technique we use in our local rationalist cluster called “Is That Your True Rejection?”, and it works like this: Before you stake…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/eliezer-yudkowsky/there-s-a-technique-we-use-in-our-local-rationalist-cluster-called-is/) [Eliezer Yudkowsky](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/eliezer-yudkowsky/) > [Lonely dissent doesn't feel like going to school dressed in black. It feels like going to school wearing a clown suit.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/eliezer-yudkowsky/lonely-dissent-doesn-t-feel-like-going-to-school-dressed-in-black-it/) [Eliezer Yudkowsky](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/eliezer-yudkowsky/) > [“Knowing that Draco's hopeful face had probably been drilled into him by months of practice did not make it any less effective, Harry observed.…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/eliezer-yudkowsky/knowing-that-draco-s-hopeful-face-had-probably-been-drilled-into-him/) [Eliezer Yudkowsky](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/eliezer-yudkowsky/) > [The strength of a theory is not what it allows, but what it prohibits; if you can invent an equally persuasive explanation for any…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/eliezer-yudkowsky/the-strength-of-a-theory-is-not-what-it-allows-but-what-it-prohibits/) [Eliezer Yudkowsky](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/eliezer-yudkowsky/) > [It is triple ultra forbidden to respond to criticism with violence. There are a very few injunctions in the human art of rationality that…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/eliezer-yudkowsky/it-is-triple-ultra-forbidden-to-respond-to-criticism-with-violence/) [Eliezer Yudkowsky](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/eliezer-yudkowsky/) > [The human species was not born into a market economy. Bees won't sell you honey if you offer them an electronic funds transfer. The…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/eliezer-yudkowsky/the-human-species-was-not-born-into-a-market-economy-bees-won-t-sell/) [Eliezer Yudkowsky](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/eliezer-yudkowsky/) > [“Frigideiro! " said Hermione again from the desk next to him. Her water was solid ice and there were white crystals forming on the rim…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/eliezer-yudkowsky/frigideiro-said-hermione-again-from-the-desk-next-to-him-her-water/) [Eliezer Yudkowsky](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/eliezer-yudkowsky/) > [“And then Harry Potter had launched in to a speech that was inspiring, yet vague. A speech to the effect that Fred and George…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/eliezer-yudkowsky/and-then-harry-potter-had-launched-in-to-a-speech-that-was-inspiring/) [Eliezer Yudkowsky](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/eliezer-yudkowsky/) > [“And I know that I'd just make myself unhappy by comparing that reality to... something perfect that I built up in my imagination.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/eliezer-yudkowsky/and-i-know-that-i-d-just-make-myself-unhappy-by-comparing-that/) [Eliezer Yudkowsky](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/eliezer-yudkowsky/) [Explore all 274 Eliezer Yudkowsky quotes ](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/eliezer-yudkowsky/) ## More Predict quotes > [People who try to predict the future by extrapolating in a line of more of what exists - they are always wrong.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/jane-jacobs/people-who-try-to-predict-the-future-by-extrapolating-in-a-line-of/) [Jane Jacobs](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/jane-jacobs/) > [... a fellow can't predict what he will pick up in the form of influence.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/saul-bellow/a-fellow-can-t-predict-what-he-will-pick-up-in-the-form-of-influence/) [Saul Bellow](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/saul-bellow/) > [The key for scouting is trying to predict when the player is peaking.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/brendan-rodgers/the-key-for-scouting-is-trying-to-predict-when-the-player-is-peaking/) [Brendan Rodgers](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/brendan-rodgers/) > [“If you want to predict how a politician will act after winning an election, look at how he currently lives and how he has…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/haemin-sunim/if-you-want-to-predict-how-a-politician-will-act-after-winning-an/) [Haemin Sunim](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/haemin-sunim/) > [I've learned that you can never predict what will happen to a film. You can never predict if people will love it, if they'll…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/james-gray/i-ve-learned-that-you-can-never-predict-what-will-happen-to-a-film/) [James Gray](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/james-gray/) > [Nobody can predict the future; the idea is to have a firm grasp of the present.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/peter-drucker/nobody-can-predict-the-future-the-idea-is-to-have-a-firm-grasp-of-the/) [Peter Drucker](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/peter-drucker/) > [Who knows how things will be years from now? Only time will tell. No need to try & predict the future.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/anonymous/who-knows-how-things-will-be-years-from-now-only-time-will-tell-no/) [Anonymous](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/anonymous/) > [“Someday soon, say predictive analytics experts, it will be possible for companies to know our tastes and predict our habits better than we know…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/charles-duhigg/someday-soon-say-predictive-analytics-experts-it-will-be-possible-for/) [Charles Duhigg](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/charles-duhigg/) > [We are going to see a steady stream, I predict, of Nobel prizes coming out of chemistry and given to women.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/frances-arnold/we-are-going-to-see-a-steady-stream-i-predict-of-nobel-prizes-coming/) [Frances Arnold](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/frances-arnold/) > [The greatest thing about 'New Girl' is that you never can predict what is next!](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/hannah-simone/the-greatest-thing-about-new-girl-is-that-you-never-can-predict-what/) [Hannah Simone](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/hannah-simone/) > [We can predict the present without having to know everything about the past.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/john-d-barrow/we-can-predict-the-present-without-having-to-know-everything-about/) [John D. Barrow](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/john-d-barrow/) > [You can predict a person?s future and divine his bank balance if you know two things: the books he reads, the people he associates…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/earl-nightingale/you-can-predict-a-person-s-future-and-divine-his-bank-balance-if-you/) [Earl Nightingale](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/earl-nightingale/) > [You can never predict how something will land.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/laura-kipnis/you-can-never-predict-how-something-will-land/) [Laura Kipnis](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/laura-kipnis/) > [“Our goal isn’t to predict something that will definitely happen.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/amy-webb/our-goal-isn-t-to-predict-something-that-will-definitely-happen/) [Amy Webb](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/amy-webb/) > [You never know what's going to happen the rest of the way. You can't predict. You don't know what Montreal is going to do…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/keith-hernandez/you-never-know-what-s-going-to-happen-the-rest-of-the-way-you-can-t/) [Keith Hernandez](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/keith-hernandez/) [Browse all 364 Predict quotes ](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/predict/) ```json { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@graph": [ { "@type": "Quotation", "text": "“If you didn't predict that something would happen, if it took you completely by surprise, then what you believed about the world when you didn't see it coming, isn't enough to explain [what has happened].”", "creator": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Eliezer Yudkowsky" }, "isPartOf": { "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/#website" }, "url": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/eliezer-yudkowsky/if-you-didn-t-predict-that-something-would-happen-if-it-took-you/", "about": { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Predict" }, "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/eliezer-yudkowsky/if-you-didn-t-predict-that-something-would-happen-if-it-took-you/#quotation", "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/974/eliezer-yudkowsky-1207_predict_if-you-didn-t-predict-that-something-wou_2958066.png", "contentUrl": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/974/eliezer-yudkowsky-1207_predict_if-you-didn-t-predict-that-something-wou_2958066.png", "url": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/974/eliezer-yudkowsky-1207_predict_if-you-didn-t-predict-that-something-wou_2958066.png", "width": 1080, "height": 1080, "caption": "“If you didn't predict that something would happen, if it took you completely by surprise, then what you…” — Eliezer Yudkowsky", "creditText": "SMS4Smile Quotes", "creator": { "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/#organization" } } }, { "@type": "BreadcrumbList", "itemListElement": [ { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 1, "name": "Home", "item": "https://sms4smile.com/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 2, "name": "Quotes", "item": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 3, "name": "Eliezer Yudkowsky", "item": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/eliezer-yudkowsky/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 4, "name": "“If you didn't predict that something...", "item": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/eliezer-yudkowsky/if-you-didn-t-predict-that-something-would-happen-if-it-took-you/" } ], "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/eliezer-yudkowsky/if-you-didn-t-predict-that-something-would-happen-if-it-took-you/#breadcrumb" }, { "@type": "WebSite", "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/#website", "name": "SMS4Smile Quotes", "url": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/", "publisher": { "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/#organization" } }, { "@type": "Organization", "@id": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/#organization", "name": "SMS4Smile Quotes", "url": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/", "logo": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/wp-content/themes/sq/assets/icons/icon-512.png", "width": 512, "height": 512 } } ] } ```