--- title: "Meaning & Key Takeaway of: The herd instinct among forecasters makes…" description: "\"The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers..\" — Edgar Fiedler" image: "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/9c0/edgar-fiedler-25866_business_the-herd-instinct-among-forecasters-make_35070.png" --- # The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like… ![“The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers..” quote by Edgar Fiedler](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/9c0/edgar-fiedler-25866_business_the-herd-instinct-among-forecasters-make_35070.png) [Download](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/9c0/edgar-fiedler-25866_business_the-herd-instinct-among-forecasters-make_35070.png) [Open image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/9c0/edgar-fiedler-25866_business_the-herd-instinct-among-forecasters-make_35070.png) > “The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers..” [Edgar Fiedler](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/edgar-fiedler/) ## About This Quote This interpretation was drafted with AI assistance. It is one reading of the quote, not the author's own explanation. Forecasters often follow the crowd, giving the illusion of independent analysis while actually conforming to prevailing trends. **In simple terms:** Groupthink in forecasting Key Takeaway Beware of consensus bias Themes cognitive bias decision making forecasting group dynamics independence Mood skeptical cautious Type observation critique When to use this quote - investment analysis - weather prediction - policy planning - market research - strategic consulting Key Concepts herd behavior analytical independence Practical Applications - risk assessment - scenario planning Questions to Reflect On - How can you verify the originality of a forecast? - What mechanisms can reduce herd influence? ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ No ratings yet [Business](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/business/) [Independent thinker](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/independent-thinker/) [Instinct](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/instinct/) [Lion](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/lion/) [Thinker](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/thinker/) ## Related quotes > [“Independent thinkers are usually deemed nuts until everyone realizes they were onto something all along”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/janice-sims/independent-thinkers-are-usually-deemed-nuts-until-everyone-realizes/) Janice Sims > [But that so many scholars are barbarians does not much matter so long as a few of them are ready to help with their…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/robert-graves/but-that-so-many-scholars-are-barbarians-does-not-much-matter-so-long/) [Robert Graves](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/robert-graves/) > [Far from creating independent thinkers, schools have always, throughout history, played an institutional role in a system of control and coercion. And once you…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/noam-chomsky/far-from-creating-independent-thinkers-schools-have-always-throughout/) [Noam Chomsky](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/noam-chomsky/) > [We wouldn't be successful if we didn't have independent thinkers who can argue and then resolve their arguments.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/ray-dalio/we-wouldn-t-be-successful-if-we-didn-t-have-independent-thinkers-who/) [Ray Dalio](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/ray-dalio/) > [Throughout history, independent minds have carried mankind forward. Whether they identified how to make fire or manufacture tools, develop rational philosophy or create man-glorifying…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/andrew-bernstein/throughout-history-independent-minds-have-carried-mankind-forward/) [Andrew Bernstein](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/andrew-bernstein/) > [A society with too few independent thinkers is vulnerable to control by disturbed and opportunistic leaders. A society which wants to create and maintain…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/john-dewey/a-society-with-too-few-independent-thinkers-is-vulnerable-to-control/) [John Dewey](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/john-dewey/) > [“People tend to say "I like independent thinkers but they must think what i want them to think independently”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/rassool-jibraeel-snyman/people-tend-to-say-i-like-independent-thinkers-but-they-must-think/) [rassool jibraeel snyman](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/rassool-jibraeel-snyman/) > [“We've rigged the entire system of living in harmony with nature against ourselves. We raise our children & inculcate various "isms" into them. They…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/mamur-mustapha/we-ve-rigged-the-entire-system-of-living-in-harmony-with-nature/) [Mamur Mustapha](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/mamur-mustapha/) > [Independent thinkers are usually geniuses or idiots and at times it's hard to tell which.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/james-cook/independent-thinkers-are-usually-geniuses-or-idiots-and-at-times-it-s/) [James Cook](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/james-cook/) > [The left are afraid of independent thinkers. They are afraid of people who are able to reason and think on their own.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/rush-limbaugh/the-left-are-afraid-of-independent-thinkers-they-are-afraid-of-people/) [Rush Limbaugh](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/rush-limbaugh/) > [“Over time I’ve learned, surprisingly, that it’s tremendously hard to get teams to be super ambitious. It turns out most people haven’t been educated…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/eric-schmidt/over-time-i-ve-learned-surprisingly-that-it-s-tremendously-hard-to/) [Eric Schmidt](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/eric-schmidt/) > [Tom DeLay fears independent thinkers and fighters. I am both.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/martin-frost/tom-delay-fears-independent-thinkers-and-fighters-i-am-both/) [Martin Frost](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/martin-frost/) > [And what is the Scientific Community doing about these problems, young people? THEY'RE CLONING SHEEP. Great! Just what we need! Sheep that look MORE…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/dave-barry/and-what-is-the-scientific-community-doing-about-these-problems-young/) [Dave Barry](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/dave-barry/) > [The hungry sheep look up, and are not fed.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/john-milton/the-hungry-sheep-look-up-and-are-not-fed/) [John Milton](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/john-milton/) > [“I heard her ask Lord Nebel how many sheep he was running on his estate. He didn't even know he was running sheep." "I…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/julia-quinn/i-heard-her-ask-lord-nebel-how-many-sheep-he-was-running-on-his/) [Julia Quinn](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/julia-quinn/) ## More by Edgar Fiedler > [Forecasters tend to learn less and less about more and more, until in the end they know nothing about everything.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/edgar-fiedler/forecasters-tend-to-learn-less-and-less-about-more-and-more-until-in/) [Edgar Fiedler](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/edgar-fiedler/) > [For economist the real world is often a special case.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/edgar-fiedler/for-economist-the-real-world-is-often-a-special-case/) [Edgar Fiedler](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/edgar-fiedler/) > [When you know absolutely nothing about the topic, make your forecast by asking a carefully selected probability sample of 300 others who don't know…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/edgar-fiedler/when-you-know-absolutely-nothing-about-the-topic-make-your-forecast/) [Edgar Fiedler](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/edgar-fiedler/) > [Ask five economists and you'll get five different answers - six if one went to Harvard..](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/edgar-fiedler/ask-five-economists-and-you-ll-get-five-different-answers-six-if-one/) [Edgar Fiedler](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/edgar-fiedler/) > [There is no formula that will guarantee success in forecasting, no magic words that will part the clouds. The real problem, as the old…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/edgar-fiedler/there-is-no-formula-that-will-guarantee-success-in-forecasting-no/) [Edgar Fiedler](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/edgar-fiedler/) > [If you have to forecast, forecast often..](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/edgar-fiedler/if-you-have-to-forecast-forecast-often/) [Edgar Fiedler](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/edgar-fiedler/) > [There is no such thing as a riskless hedge against inflation.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/edgar-fiedler/there-is-no-such-thing-as-a-riskless-hedge-against-inflation/) [Edgar Fiedler](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/edgar-fiedler/) > [In a sense, there are as many forecasting methods as there are forecasters. But I would argue that most projections are derived from two…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/edgar-fiedler/in-a-sense-there-are-as-many-forecasting-methods-as-there-are/) [Edgar Fiedler](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/edgar-fiedler/) > [We're not very good at forecasting, and we don't know how to measure the impact of economic policy.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/edgar-fiedler/we-re-not-very-good-at-forecasting-and-we-don-t-know-how-to-measure/) [Edgar Fiedler](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/edgar-fiedler/) > [Experience shows that a recession is never the result of just a few large industries dragging the economy down while the others continue to…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/edgar-fiedler/experience-shows-that-a-recession-is-never-the-result-of-just-a-few/) [Edgar Fiedler](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/edgar-fiedler/) > [No one can escape the iron rule that once you make a forecast, you know you're going to be wrong; you just don't know…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/edgar-fiedler/no-one-can-escape-the-iron-rule-that-once-you-make-a-forecast-you/) [Edgar Fiedler](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/edgar-fiedler/) > [Economists state their GNP growth projections to the nearest tenth of a percentage point to prove they have a sense of humor.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/edgar-fiedler/economists-state-their-gnp-growth-projections-to-the-nearest-tenth-of/) [Edgar Fiedler](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/edgar-fiedler/) > [The general public still expects a lot more forecasting accuracy than any of us can deliver.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/edgar-fiedler/the-general-public-still-expects-a-lot-more-forecasting-accuracy-than/) [Edgar Fiedler](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/edgar-fiedler/) > [If we're going to forecast the business cycle, surely it is a good idea to know the business cycle. Sounds reasonable, but it's not…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/edgar-fiedler/if-we-re-going-to-forecast-the-business-cycle-surely-it-is-a-good/) [Edgar Fiedler](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/edgar-fiedler/) > [For a politician, the long term is between now and the next election.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/edgar-fiedler/for-a-politician-the-long-term-is-between-now-and-the-next-election/) [Edgar Fiedler](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/edgar-fiedler/) [Explore all 22 Edgar Fiedler quotes ](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/edgar-fiedler/) ## More Business quotes > [Companies with cultures that celebrate diverse opinions and encourage the exchange of ideas have an advantage when solving difficult problems. 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And…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/g-dragon/i-think-a-business-guy-is-different-from-an-artist-they-walk/) [G-Dragon](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/g-dragon/) > [ “\[S\]ometimes, when you are a food person, the possible irrelevance of what you are doing doesn’t cross your mind until it’s too late. 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