--- title: "Meaning & Key Takeaway of: That the chance of gain is naturally…" description: "\"That the chance of gain is naturally over-valued, we may learn from the universal success of lotteries.\" — Adam Smith" image: "https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/095/adam-smith-1040_chance_that-the-chance-of-gain-is-naturally-ove_2671347.jpg" --- # That the chance of gain is naturally over-valued, we may… ![“That the chance of gain is naturally over-valued, we may learn from the universal success of lotteries.” quote by Adam Smith](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/095/adam-smith-1040_chance_that-the-chance-of-gain-is-naturally-ove_2671347.jpg) [Download](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/095/adam-smith-1040_chance_that-the-chance-of-gain-is-naturally-ove_2671347.jpg) [Open image](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/i/095/adam-smith-1040_chance_that-the-chance-of-gain-is-naturally-ove_2671347.jpg) > “That the chance of gain is naturally over-valued, we may learn from the universal success of lotteries.” [Adam Smith](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/adam-smith/) ## About This Quote This interpretation was drafted with AI assistance. It is one reading of the quote, not the author's own explanation. People tend to overestimate the likelihood of rare successes, leading to misallocation of effort and resources. **In simple terms:** We overvalue rare gains, like lottery wins. Key Takeaway Recognize and adjust for bias in risk assessment. Themes risk perception probability bias decision making Mood cautious analytical Type advisory analytical When to use this quote - investment choices - career planning - personal finance - gambling - policy design Key Concepts behavioral economics expected value heuristics Questions to Reflect On - How do you assess low‑probability, high‑reward opportunities? - What strategies reduce overconfidence in rare events? A Different Perspective Bias can be mitigated with statistical education and realistic modeling. ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ No ratings yet [Chance](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/chance/) [Lottery](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/lottery/) [Luck](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/luck/) [Success](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/about/success/) ## Related quotes > [“I guess I think of lotteries as a tax on the mathematically challenged.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/roger-jones/i-guess-i-think-of-lotteries-as-a-tax-on-the-mathematically-challenged/) Roger Jones > [I have never played the lottery in my life and never will. Voltaire described lotteries as a tax on stupidity. More specifically, I think,…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/daniel-tammet/i-have-never-played-the-lottery-in-my-life-and-never-will-voltaire/) [Daniel Tammet](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/daniel-tammet/) > [“The system was elementary, as you can see. Naturally these "lotteries" failed. Their moral virtue was nil. They were not directed at all of…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/jorge-luis-borges/the-system-was-elementary-as-you-can-see-naturally-these-lotteries/) [Jorge Luis Borges](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/jorge-luis-borges/) > [There is no moral difference between gambling at cards or in lotteries or on the race track and gambling in the stock market. One…](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/theodore-roosevelt/there-is-no-moral-difference-between-gambling-at-cards-or-in/) [Theodore Roosevelt](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/theodore-roosevelt/) > [European lotteries are the tax on fools.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/camillo-benso-count-of-cavour/european-lotteries-are-the-tax-on-fools/) [Camillo Benso, Count of Cavour](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/camillo-benso-count-of-cavour/) > [There are no races. Only lotteries.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/jacques-anquetil/there-are-no-races-only-lotteries/) [Jacques Anquetil](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/jacques-anquetil/) > [Lotteries, a tax upon imbeciles.](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/anonymous/lotteries-a-tax-upon-imbeciles/) [Anonymous](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/anonymous/) > [“Public lotteries are essentially regressive taxes imposed on the poor.”](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/eric-schlosser/public-lotteries-are-essentially-regressive-taxes-imposed-on-the-poor/) [Eric Schlosser](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/eric-schlosser/) > [Lotteries boost state revenues in the short run but don't feed the economy in the long run](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/john-warren-kindt/lotteries-boost-state-revenues-in-the-short-run-but-don-t-feed-the/) [John Warren Kindt](https://sms4smile.com/quotes/author/john-warren-kindt/) > [Where there is chance of gain, there is also chance of loss. 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